THE YIELD CURVE AS A LEADING INDICATOR ACROSS COUNTRIES AND TIME: THE EUROPEAN CASE

With the increasing demand for a better understanding about the relationship between yield curve and economic activities, this paper analyzes the data sets of seven countries in the European Union: Germany, France, Belgium, Spain, the United Kingdom, Sweden and Poland using quantitative analytical method. Based on previous literature, the expected hypothesis is: there is a strong relationship between the yield curve and the chance of an incoming economic contraction. The inverted yield curve, or the negative yield curve spread is considered as the tool to forecast the incoming contraction. Having been used as a rule of thumb for future reference of a contraction, whether yield curve and interest rates can be an accurate tool to predict the movement of business cycles should be studied more thoroughly, which will help not only the governments to reduce the loss from recession, but also equip financial sector valuable information to adjust itself before a contraction takes place. Further findings in this paper present a comparison between a group of Eurozone members and a group of non-Eurozone members. The similarities and differences give a broad idea of how the creation of the Eurozone has affected the area in the last decade

The Impacts of Three Flamelet Burning Regimes in Nonlinear Combustion Dynamics

Axisymmetric simulations of a liquid rocket engine are performed using a delayed detached-eddy-simulation (DDES) turbulence model with the Compressible Flamelet Progress Variable (CFPV) combustion model. Three different pressure instability domains are simulated: completely unstable, semi-stable, and fully stable. The different instability domains are found by varying the combustion chamber and oxidizer post length. Laminar flamelet solutions with a detailed chemical mechanism are examined. The $\beta$ Probability Density Function (PDF) for the mixture fraction and Dirac $\delta$ PDF for both the pressure and the progress variable are used. A coupling mechanism between the Heat Release Rate (HRR) and the pressure in an unstable cycle is demonstrated. Local extinction and reignition is investigated for all the instability domains using the full S-curve approach. A monotonic decrease in the amount of local extinctions and reignitions occurs when pressure oscillation amplitude becomes smaller. The flame index is used to distinguish between the premixed and non-premixed burning mode in different stability domains. An additional simulation of the unstable pressure oscillation case using only the stable flamelet burning branch of the S-curve is performed. Better agreement with experiments in terms of pressure oscillation amplitude is found when the full S-curve is used.Comment: 25 pages, 12 figures. Submitted to Combustion and Flame for a Special Issu