Do social grants contribute to the jobless population growth in the former South African homelands?

The former homelands and tribal authorities have large populations and high densities with low levels of economic activity and low employment. Population growth in these settlements is in contrast to expectations of population declines, due to urban migration. A possible reason could be the high level of dependency on social grants in the former homelands. The article analyses population growth rates, economic growth rates and the ratio of social grant recipients within former homeland settlements between 1996 and 2011. By using weighted multiple regression tests, the article determines whether the phenomenon of population growth, in the absence of significant economic activity, is linked to welfare transfers. The results indicate that population growth is the product of increases in age cohorts qualifying for social grants in rural areas, due to high birth rates and pensioner in-migration from urban areas. By contrast, other age cohorts show population declines

Using a hybrid methodology of dasyametric mapping and data interpolation techniques to undertake population data (dis)aggregation in South Africa

The ability of GIS to produce accurate analysis results is dependent on the accuracy and the resolution of the data. In many instances the resolution of census enumerator tract data is too coarse and therefore inefficient in conducting fine grained spatial analysis. Dasymetric techniques can increase the spatial resolution of data by incorporating related high resolution ancillary data layers allowing the primary data to be represented at finer resolutions. Areal interpolation relates to a geostatistical process of transferring data from one set of polygons to another. This paper proposes the application of a hybrid technique using dasymetric mapping and areal interpolation principals to overcome the issues of transferring data from arbitrary spatial units to fit for purpose analysis zones on demand. As a consequence the technique also overcomes the problems of coarse scale population data as well as issues relating to the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP). The data used to illustrate the value and accuracy of the developed methodology is that of the 2011 census population data and ESKOM’s SPOT building count. The final outcome is an algorithm allowing the disaggregation and aggregation of population data to any spatial unit with a high level of accuracy.Keywords: Dasymetric Mapping; MAUP; Population; Census; GI

Spatial trends in tourism within South Africa : the expected and the surprising

Abstract: Several researchers have highlighted the spatial imbalances of the tourism sector in South Africa. It has been noted that this sector is highly concentrated spatially in terms of its distribution and in relation to its potential local impacts across the country. Although it is broadly understood that the tourism sector is geographically uneven, the lack of sector comparative data at municipal level may inhibit the wide spread use of geographically comparative analyses of the contribution of the various dimensions of tourism in the South African space economy. The aim of this paper is to provide an indication of the value of such comparative analyses of the spatial trends and impacts of the tourism sector in local economies in South Africa. The discussion of the tourism space economy is based on an analysis of a local tourism database which contains details of the tourism performance of all local authorities in the country focussing on the period from 2001 to 2011. Whilst the study confirms the important role of metropolitan areas, secondary and coastal cities and typical tourism destinations in the tourism space economy, it also highlights the significance of some local places/economies that are not traditionally associated with tourism, as well as illustrating the significance of tourism spend in the local economies of a range of municipalities that might not be part of the ‘top’ tourist destinations in South Africa

Exploring the population and economic growth dynamics in former homeland settlements between 1996 and 2011.

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2014.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Former homelands were established in order to create separate self-governed states for the black population of South Africa, the epitome of the Apartheid government policy of separate development and social engineering. After 1994 these areas were integrated with the rest of the administrative regions of South Africa. These largely rural areas have developed a variety of settlement types with varying levels of economic agglomeration and population concentration that are still faced with the legacy of unsustainable settlements. These areas mostly characterised with dense rural settlements and traditional land tenure have growing towns where economic activity still does not match the growth in population and are perceived to have struggling economies, high grant dependence and low urbanisation rates. This paper examines the population and economic growth, level of urbanisation and spatial agglomeration within former homelands using the three census years (1996, 2001 and 2011) as well as the proportion of social grant recipients across settlements in order to get a better understanding of the spatial development patterns in these areas. A weighted mean growth was used to determine the relative strength of spatial agglomeration and diffusion patterns and an age cohort analysis was used to indicate population movement. A simple linear regression was used to assess the relationship between population settlement patterns and economic growth on the prevalence of social grant recipients across settlements. The results indicate firstly a growth and increased concentration of population within settlements indicating that natural increase is outpacing the outmigration. Secondly; increased urbanisation and spatial agglomeration within former homeland urban centres is accompanied by a marginal economic growth which conforms to theoretical predictions. However, the economic growth in former homelands is happening at a slower pace than in the rest of South Africa. Thirdly, although having a higher proportion of grant recipients compared to the rest of South Africa, there is a negative correlation between the proportions of social grant recipients and spatial agglomeration. This indicates that the proportion of grant recipients are declining as economic activity and population agglomerates within former homeland urban centres.AFRIKAANS OPSOMMING: Die voormalige tuislande is daar gestel om aparte en selfregerende state te vorm vir die swart bevolking van Suid Afrika. Hierdie was ‘n hoogte punt van die Apartheids regering se poging om aparte ontwikkeling vir verskillende rasse groepe af te dwing. Na 1994 is die state geintegreer met die res van die administratiewe areas (munisipaliteite) van Suid Afrika. Die grootliks landelike gebiede bestaan uit ‘n verskeindenheid van tipes nedersettings met verskillende vlakke van konsentrasie (agglomerasie) aangaande populasie en ekonomiese aktiwiteite. Daar is ook die algemene indruk dat die areas sukkelende ekonomieë het, grootliks afhanklik is van welsynstoelae, en met geen beduidende mate van verstedeliking nie. Die studie kyk na die ekonomiese en populasie groei, die vlak van verstedeliking en ruimtelike konsentrasie binne die voormalige tuislande gebaseer op die sensus data afkomstig van drie sensus jare (1996, 2001 en 2011), asook die proporsie persone afhanklik van welsynstoelae in die verskillende tipes nedersettings. Dit word gedoen om sodoende ‘n beter verstaan te kry van die ruimtelike ontwikkelings patrone in die areas en of dit positief bydrae tot ekonomiese groei en ontwikkeling van die voormalige tusilande. Die geweegte gemiddelde groei is bereken om die relatiewe vlak van ruimtelike konsentrasie (of verspreiding) te bepaal. Ouderdoms groeperinge en die mate van verandering binne ‘n sekere groepering is gebruik om die beweging van mense tussen plekke te bepaal. Daarna is ‘n gewone liniere regressie analise gebruik om die verwantskap tussen populasie, nedersettings patrone, en ekonomiese groei te toets op die teenwoordigheid van mense wat afhanklik is van welsynstoelae. Die resultate wys eerstens groei en toenemende konsentrasie van populasie binne nedersettings. Die dui daarop dat natuurlike populasie aanwas die tempo van uitmigrasie oorskrei. Tweedens word toenemende verstedeliking en ruimtelike konsentrasie binne stedelike gebiede van die tuislande geassosieer met ekonomiese groei. Laasgenoemde is in lyn met die teorie rondom konsentrasie (agglomerasie). Ekonomise groei in voormalige tuislande gebeur egter teen ‘n stadiger pas as in die res van SA. Laastens, alhoewel daar proporsioneel meer mense in die voormalige tuislande is wat welsysntoelae ontvang in verhouding tot die res van SA, is daar wel ‘n negatiewe korrelasie tussen die proporsie van welsynstoelaag afhanklikes en die mate van ruimtelike konsentrasie. Dit dui daarop dat in stedelike sentra in die voormalige tuislande die hoeveelheid welsynstoelaag afhanklikes afneem in verhouding tot die toename in die konsentrasie van populasie en ekonomiese aktiwiteite