Follow-up and programmatic outcomes of HIV-exposed infants registered in a large HIV centre in Lilongwe, Malawi: 2012-2014.

OBJECTIVE: To assess follow-up and programmatic outcomes of HIV-exposed infants at Martin Preuss Centre, Lilongwe, from 2012 to 2014. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study using routinely collected HIV-exposed infant data. Data were analysed using frequencies and percentages in Stata v.13. RESULTS: Of 1035 HIV-exposed infants registered 2012-2014, 79% were available to be tested for HIV and 76% were HIV-tested either with DNA-PCR or rapid HIV test serology by 24 months of age. Sixty-five infants were found to be HIV-positive and 43% were started on antiretroviral therapy (ART) at different ages from 6 weeks to 24 months. Overall, 48% of HIV-exposed infants were declared lost-to-follow-up in the database. Of these, 69% were listed for tracing; of these, 78% were confirmed as lost-to-follow-up through patient charts; of these, 51% were traced; and of these, 62% were truly not in care, the remainder being wrongly classified. Commonest reasons for being truly not in care were mother/guardian unavailability to bring infants to Martin Preuss Centre, forgetting clinic appointments and transport expenses. Of these 86 patients, 36% were successfully brought back to care and 64% remained lost-to-follow-up. CONCLUSION: Loss to follow-up remains a huge challenge in the care of HIV-exposed infants. Active tracing facilitates the return of some of these infants to care. However, programmatic data documentation must be urgently improved to better follow-up and link HIV-positive children to ART

Potential impact of intervention strategies on COVID-19 transmission in Malawi : a mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 mitigation strategies have been challenging to implement in resource-limited settings due to the potential for widespread disruption to social and economic well-being. Here we predict the clinical severity of COVID-19 in Malawi, quantifying the potential impact of intervention strategies and increases in health system capacity. METHODS: The infection fatality ratios (IFR) were predicted by adjusting reported IFR for China, accounting for demography, the current prevalence of comorbidities and health system capacity. These estimates were input into an age-structured deterministic model, which simulated the epidemic trajectory with non-pharmaceutical interventions and increases in health system capacity. FINDINGS: The predicted population-level IFR in Malawi, adjusted for age and comorbidity prevalence, is lower than that estimated for China (0.26%, 95% uncertainty interval (UI) 0.12%-0.69%, compared with 0.60%, 95% CI 0.4% to 1.3% in China); however, the health system constraints increase the predicted IFR to 0.83%, 95% UI 0.49%-1.39%. The interventions implemented in January 2021 could potentially avert 54 400 deaths (95% UI 26 900-97 300) over the course of the epidemic compared with an unmitigated outbreak. Enhanced shielding of people aged ≥60 years could avert 40 200 further deaths (95% UI 25 300-69 700) and halve intensive care unit admissions at the peak of the outbreak. A novel therapeutic agent which reduces mortality by 0.65 and 0.8 for severe and critical cases, respectively, in combination with increasing hospital capacity, could reduce projected mortality to 2.5 deaths per 1000 population (95% UI 1.9-3.6). CONCLUSION: We find the interventions currently used in Malawi are unlikely to effectively prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission but will have a significant impact on mortality. Increases in health system capacity and the introduction of novel therapeutics are likely to further reduce the projected numbers of deaths

Socio-demographic factors associated with early antenatal care visits among pregnant women in Malawi : 2004-2016

INTRODUCTION: In 2016, the WHO published recommendations increasing the number of recommended antenatal care (ANC) visits per pregnancy from four to eight. Prior to the implementation of this policy, coverage of four ANC visits has been suboptimal in many low-income settings. In this study we explore socio-demographic factors associated with early initiation of first ANC contact and attending at least four ANC visits ("ANC4+") in Malawi using the Malawi Demographic and Health Survey (MDHS) data collected between 2004 and 2016, prior to the implementation of new recommendations. METHODS: We combined data from the 2004-5, 2010 and 2015-16 MDHS using Stata version 16. Participants included all women surveyed between the ages of 15-49 who had given birth in the five years preceding the survey. We conducted weighted univariate, bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis of the effects of each of the predictor variables on the binary endpoint of the woman attending at least four ANC visits and having the first ANC attendance within or before the four months of pregnancy (ANC4+). To determine whether a factor was included in the model, the likelihood ratio test was used with a statistical significance of P< 0.05 as the threshold. RESULTS: We evaluated data collected in surveys in 2004/5, 2010 and 2015/6 from 26386 women who had given birth in the five years before being surveyed. The median gestational age, in months, at the time of presenting for the first ANC visit was 5 (inter quartile range: 4-6). The proportion of women initiating ANC4+ increased from 21.3% in 2004-5 to 38.8% in 2015-16. From multivariate analysis, there was increasing trend in ANC4+ from women aged 20-24 years (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.27, 95%CI:1.05-1.53, P = 0.01) to women aged 45-49 years (aOR = 1.91, 95%CI:1.18-3.09, P = 0.008) compared to those aged 15-19 years. Women from richest socio-economic position ((aOR = 1.32, 95%CI:1.12-1.58, P<0.001) were more likely to demonstrate ANC4+ than those from low socio-economic position. Additionally, women who had completed secondary (aOR = 1.24, 95%CI:1.02-1.51, P = 0.03) and tertiary (aOR = 2.64, 95%CI:1.65-4.22, P<0.001) education were more likely to report having ANC4+ than those with no formal education. Conversely increasing parity was associated with a reduction in likelihood of ANC4+ with women who had previously delivered 2-3 (aOR = 0.74, 95%CI:0.63-0.86, P<0.001), 4-5 (aOR = 0.65, 95%CI:0.53-0.80, P<0.001) or greater than 6 (aOR = 0.61, 95%CI: 0.47-0.79, <0.001) children being less likely to demonstrate ANC4+. CONCLUSION: The proportion of women reporting ANC4+ and of key ANC interventions in Malawi have increased significantly since 2004. However, we found that most women did not access the recommended number of ANC visits in Malawi, prior to the 2016 WHO policy change which may mean that women are less likely to undertake the 2016 WHO recommendation of 8 contacts per pregnancy. Additionally, our results highlighted significant variation in coverage according to key socio-demographic variables which should be considered when devising national strategies to ensure that all women access the appropriate frequency of ANC visits during their pregnancy

How are countries in sub-Saharan African monitoring the impact of programmes to prevent vertical transmission of HIV?

Vertical transmission of HIV can occur during pregnancy, delivery, or through breast feeding. The main driver of vertical transmission is a high maternal viral load. Between 2002 and 2016, low and middle income countries (LMICs) in sub-Saharan Africa with high HIV prevalence improved their policies to prevent vertical transmission of HIV. In 2002, national policies recommended single dose nevirapine at the onset of labour, with limited or no breast feeding. By 2016, all Global Plan priority countries in sub-Saharan Africa (where 90% of the world’s HIV positive pregnant women live) had adopted Option B+ with promotion of breast feeding. Option B+ was a dramatic policy change recommending lifelong triple antiretroviral therapy (ART) for all pregnant and lactating women living with HIV. The aim is to protect the child from HIV infection, ensure the mother’s future health, and prevent horizontal transmission of HIV.The South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC)http://www.bmj.com/thebmjam2020Paediatrics and Child Healt

A qualitative study on the feasibility and acceptability of institutionalizing health technology assessment in Malawi

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to assess the feasibility and acceptability of institutionalizing Health Technology Assessment (HTA) in Malawi. METHODS: This study employed a document review and qualitative research methods, to understand the status of HTA in Malawi. This was complemented by a review of the status and nature of HTA institutionalization in selected countries.Qualitative research employed a Focus Group Discussion (FGD ) with 7 participants, and Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) with12 informants selected based on their knowledge and expertise in policy processes related to HTA in Malawi.Data extracted from the literature was organized in Microsoft Excel, categorized according to thematic areas and analyzed using a literature review framework. Qualitative data from KIIs and the FGD was analyzed using a thematic content analysis approach. RESULTS: Some HTA processes exist and are executed through three structures namely: Ministry of Health Senior Management Team, Technical Working Groups, and Pharmacy and Medicines Regulatory Authority (PMRA) with varyingdegrees of effectiveness.The main limitations of current HTA mechanisms include limited evidence use, lack of a standardized framework for technology adoption, donor pressure, lack of resources for the HTA process and technology acquisition, laws and practices that undermine cost-effectiveness considerations. KII and FGD results showed overwhelming demand for strengthening HTA in Malawi, with a stronger preference for strengthening coordination and capacity of existing entities and structures. CONCLUSION: The study has shown that HTA institutionalization is acceptable and feasible in Malawi. However, the current committee based processes are suboptimal to improve efficiency due to lack of a structured framework. A structured HTA framework has the potential to improve processes in pharmaceuticals and medical technologies decision-making.In the short to medium term, HTA capacity building should focus on generating demand and increasing capacity in cost-effectiveness assessments. Country-specific assessments should precede HTA institutionalization as well as recommendations for new technology adoptions

Retention in care under universal antiretroviral therapy for HIV-infected pregnant and breastfeeding women ('Option B+') in Malawi

OBJECTIVE To explore the levels and determinants of loss to follow-up (LTF) under universal lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) for pregnant and breastfeeding women ('Option B+') in Malawi. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We examined retention in care, from the date of ART initiation up to 6 months, for women in the Option B+ program. We analysed nationwide facility-level data on women who started ART at 540 facilities (n = 21 939), as well as individual-level data on patients who started ART at 19 large facilities (n = 11 534). RESULTS Of the women who started ART under Option B+ (n = 21 939), 17% appeared to be lost to follow-up 6 months after ART initiation. Most losses occurred in the first 3 months of therapy. Option B+ patients who started therapy during pregnancy were five times more likely than women who started ART in WHO stage 3/4 or with a CD4 cell count 350 cells/μl or less, to never return after their initial clinic visit [odds ratio (OR) 5.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.2-6.1]. Option B+ patients who started therapy while breastfeeding were twice as likely to miss their first follow-up visit (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.8-2.8). LTF was highest in pregnant Option B+ patients who began ART at large clinics on the day they were diagnosed with HIV. LTF varied considerably between facilities, ranging from 0 to 58%. CONCLUSION Decreasing LTF will improve the effectiveness of the Option B+ approach. Tailored interventions, like community or family-based models of care could improve its effectiveness

Modeling Contraception and Pregnancy in Malawi : A Thanzi La Onse Mathematical Modeling Study

Malawi has high unmet need for contraception with a costed national plan to increase contraception use. Estimating how such investments might impact future population size in Malawi can help policymakers understand effects and value of policies to increase contraception uptake. We developed a new model of contraception and pregnancy using individual-level data capturing complexities of contraception initiation, switching, discontinuation, and failure by contraception method, accounting for differences by individual characteristics. We modeled contraception scale-up via a population campaign to increase initiation of contraception (Pop) and a postpartum family planning intervention (PPFP). We calibrated the model without new interventions to the UN World Population Prospects 2019 medium variant projection of births for Malawi. Without interventions Malawi's population passes 60 million in 2084; with Pop and PPFP interventions. it peaks below 35 million by 2100. We compare contraception coverage and costs, by method, with and without interventions, from 2023 to 2050. We estimate investments in contraception scale-up correspond to only 0.9 percent of total health expenditure per capita though could result in dramatic reductions of current pressures of very rapid population growth on health services, schools, land, and society, helping Malawi achieve national and global health and development goals

Factors associated with HIV viral suppression among children and adults receiving antiretroviral therapy in Malawi in 2021: Evidence from the Laboratory Management Information System.

OBJECTIVE To describe the prevalence of HIV viral suppression and assess the factors associated with HIV viral suppression among persons receiving ART in Malawi in 2021. METHODS Implementation study using routinely collected patient-level HIV RNA-PCR test result data extracted from the national Laboratory Management Information System (LIMS) database managed by the Department of HIV/AIDS in 2021. We calculated frequencies, proportions and odds ratios (OR) of HIV viral suppression with their associated 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). We performed a random-effects logistic regression to determine the risk factors associated with HIV viral suppression amongst ART patients, controlling for the spatial autocorrelation between districts and adjusting for other variables. RESULTS We evaluated 515,797 adults and children receiving ART and having a viral load test in 2021. Of these, 92.8% had HIV viral suppression. ART patients living in urban areas had lower likelihood of HIV viral suppression than those living in rural areas (adjusted OR [aOR]=0.95, 95%CI: 0.92-0.99, P=0.01). There was an increasing trend in HIV viral suppression with increasing ART duration. Routine VL monitoring samples were 39% more likely to have suppressed VL values than confirmatory HIV VL monitoring samples (aOR=1.39; 95%CI:1.34-1.43, P<0.001). CONCLUSION This is the first national analysis of Malawi HIV VL data from LIMS. Our findings show the need to particularly consider the urban residents, those below 20 years, males, those on ART for less than a year as well as those on specific ARV regimens in order to persistently suppress HIV VL and consequently achieve the goal of achieving HIV VL suppression by 2030

Factors associated with healthcare seeking behaviour for children in Malawi : 2016

OBJECTIVE: To characterize health seeking behavior (HSB) and determine its predictors amongst children in Malawi in 2016. METHODS: We used the 2016 Malawi Integrated Household Survey dataset. The outcome of interest was HSB, defined as seeking care at a health facility amongst people who reported one or more of a list of possible symptoms given on the questionnaire in the past two weeks. We fitted a multivariate logistic regression model of HSB using a forward step-wise selection method, with age, sex and symptoms entered as a priori variables. RESULTS: Of 5350 children, 1666 (32%) had symptoms in the past two weeks. Of the 1666, 1008 (61%) sought care at health facility. The children aged 5 to 14 years were less likely to be taken to health facilities for healthcare than those aged 0 to 4 years. Having fever vs. not having fever and having a skin problem vs. not having skin problem were associated with increased likelihood of HSB. Having a headache vs. not having a headache was associated with lower likelihood of accessing care at health facilities (AOR= 0.50,95%CI: 0.26-0.96, P=0.04). Children from urban areas were more likely to be taken to health facilities for healthcare (AOR= 1.81, 95%CI: 1.17-2.85, P=0.008), as were children from households with a higher socioeconomic position (AOR= 1.96, 95%CI: 1.13-3.40, P=0.02). CONCLUSION: There is a need to understand and address individual, socioeconomic and geographical barriers to health seeking to increase access and use of healthcare and fast-track progress towards Universal Health Coverage

Treatment outcomes of AIDS-associated Kaposi's sarcoma under a routine antiretroviral therapy program in Lilongwe, Malawi: bleomycin/vincristine compared to vincristine monotherapy.

Despite Kaposi's sarcoma (KS) being the most prevalent AIDS-associated cancer in resource limited settings, optimal treatment options remain unknown. We assessed whether bleomycin/vincristine compared to vincristine monotherapy was associated with improved treatment outcomes for AIDS-associated KS among patients initiating combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in Malawi.All patients initiating cART and chemotherapy for AIDS-related KS were identified from an electronic data system from the HIV Lighthouse Clinic from 2002 to 2011. Treatment responses were compared between patients receiving vincristine monotherapy and vincristine/bleomycin. Binomial regression models were implemented to assess probability of tumor improvement for patients receiving vincristine/bleomycin compared to vincristine monotherapy after a complete cycle of chemotherapy (9-10 months). A chi-squared test was used to compare changes in CD4 count after six months of chemotherapy.Of 449 patients with AIDS-associated KS on chemotherapy, 94% received vincristine monotherapy and 6% received bleomycin/vincristine. Distribution of treatment outcomes was different: 29% of patients on vincristine experienced tumor improvement compared to 53% of patients on bleomycin/vincristine. Patients receiving bleomycin/vincristine were 2.25 (95% CI: 1.47, 3.44) times as likely to experience tumor improvement as to those on vincristine monotherapy. This value changed little after adjustment for age and baseline CD4 count: 2.46 (95% CI: 1.57, 3.86). Change in CD4 count was similar for patients receiving vincristine monotherapy and bleomycin/vincristine (p = 0.6).Bleomycin/vincristine for the treatment of AIDS-associated KS was associated with better tumor response compared to vincristine monotherapy without impairing CD4 count recovery. Replication in larger datasets and randomized controlled trials is necessary