Mapping spatial dimensions of Wilderness recreation outcomes: a study of overnight users

Grand Teton National Park (GRTE) is a popular mountain recreation destination which, like many National Park Service (NPS) units, has experienced a significant increase in visitation in recent years, with total visits increasing by 27% between 2014 and 2017 (NPS 2020). Particularly popular within GRTE is the String and Leigh Lakes (SLL) area, which is a favoured alpine destination for numerous day-use recreation activities and also an important starting point for backcountry and overnight recreational users within GRTE’s Recommended Wilderness. To better understand the visitor experience of overnight backcountry recreationists in the SLL area, data were collected using novel public participatory geographic information systems (PPGIS) during the summer of 2018. PPGIS data were used to identify the locations in which overnight recreationists experienced positive and negative recreation outcomes. Results indicate that they experience more positive outcomes within the Recommended Wilderness, away from high-density, trailhead-proximate areas outside the Recommended Wilderness. Findings also indicate that overnight users experience crowding and conflict more outside of the Recommended Wilderness than elsewhere on their backcountry trip. While this may seem intuitive, these are some of the first empirical results spatially contextualizing backcountry visitor outcomes in a popular national park. The findings thus provide managers with a visitor experience baseline that can be monitored and adaptively managed in the future

The impact of streetlights on an aquatic invasive species: artificial light at night alters signal crayfish behaviour

Artificial light at night (ALAN) can significantly alter the behaviour, communication and orientation of animals, and will potentially interact with other stressors to affect biodiversity. Invasive, non-native species are one of the largest threats to freshwater biodiversity; however, the impact of ALAN on such species is unknown. This study assessed the effects of ALAN at ecologically relevant levels on the behaviour of a globally widespread invasive species, the signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus). In experimental aquaria, crayfish were exposed to periods of daylight, control (<0.1 lx) and street-lit nights to test two hypotheses: (1) signal crayfish under natural conditions are nocturnal animals, spending more time in shelter during the day, whilst active and interacting during the night, and (2) ALAN reduces crayfish activity and intraspecific interactions, whilst increasing their propensity to use shelter. Our results confirm that signal crayfish are largely nocturnal, showing peak activity and interaction levels during control nights, whilst taking refuge during daylight hours. When exposed to short-term simulated light pollution from a streetlight at night however, activity and interactions with conspecifics were significantly reduced compared to control nights, whilst time spent in shelters increased. By altering crayfish behaviour, ALAN may change the ecosystem impacts of invasive crayfish in the wild. This study is the first to show an impact of ALAN on the behaviour of an invasive, non-native species, and provides information for the management of invasive crayfish in areas where ALAN is prevalent

Recoiling from a kick in the head-on collision of spinning black holes

Recoil ``kicks'' induced by gravitational radiation are expected in the inspiral and merger of black holes. Recently the numerical relativity community has begun to measure the significant kicks found when both unequal masses and spins are considered. Because understanding the cause and magnitude of each component of this kick may be complicated in inspiral simulations, we consider these effects in the context of a simple test problem. We study recoils from collisions of binaries with initially head-on trajectories, starting with the simplest case of equal masses with no spin and then adding spin and varying the mass ratio, both separately and jointly. We find spin-induced recoils to be significant relative to unequal-mass recoils even in head-on configurations. Additionally, it appears that the scaling of transverse kicks with spins is consistent with post-Newtonian theory, even though the kick is generated in the nonlinear merger interaction, where post-Newtonian theory should not apply. This suggests that a simple heuristic description might be effective in the estimation of spin-kicks.Comment: 12 pages, 10 figures. Replaced with published version, including more discussion of convergence and properties of final hol

A Computationally-Efficient Probabilistic Approach to Model-Based Damage Diagnosis

This work presents a computationally-efficient, probabilistic approach to model-based damage diagnosis. Given measurement data, probability distributions of unknown damage parameters are estimated using Bayesian inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. Substantial computational speedup is obtained by replacing a three-dimensional finite element (FE) model with an efficient surrogate model. While the formulation is general for arbitrary component geometry, damage type, and sensor data, it is applied to the problem of strain-based crack characterization and experimentally validated using full-field strain data from digital image correlation (DIC). Access to full-field DIC data facilitates the study of the effectiveness of strain-based diagnosis as the distance between the location of damage and strain measurements is varied. The ability of the framework to accurately estimate the crack parameters and effectively capture the uncertainty due to measurement proximity and experimental error is demonstrated. Furthermore, surrogate modeling is shown to enable diagnoses on the order of seconds and minutes rather than several days required with the FE model

Relations Between QRS|T Angle, Cardiac Risk Factors, and Mortality in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III)

On the surface electrocardiogram, an abnormally wide QRS|T angle reflects changes in the regional action potential duration profiles and in the direction of the repolarization sequence, which is thought to increase the risk of ventricular arrhythmia. We investigated the relation between an abnormal QRS|T angle and mortality in a nationally representative sample of subjects without clinically evident heart disease. We studied 7,052 participants ≥40 years old in the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey with 12-lead electrocardiograms. Those with self-reported or electrocardiographic evidence of a previous myocardial infarction, QRS duration of ≥120 ms, or history of heart failure were excluded. Borderline and abnormal spatial QRS|T angles were defined according to gender-specific 75th and 95th percentiles of frequency distributions. All-cause (1,093 women and 1,191 men) and cardiovascular (462 women and 455 men) mortality during the 14-year period was assessed through linkage with the National Death Index. On multivariate analyses, an abnormal spatial QRS|T angle was associated with an increased hazard ratio (HR) for cardiovascular mortality in women (HR 1.82, 95% confidence interval 1.05 to 3.14) and men (HR 2.21, 95% confidence interval 1.32 to 3.68). Also, the multivariate adjusted HR for all-cause mortality associated with an abnormal QRS|T angle was 1.30 (95% confidence interval 0.95 to 1.78) for women and 1.87 (95% confidence interval 1.29 to 2.7) for men. A borderline QRS|T angle was not associated with an increased risk of all-cause or cardiovascular mortality. In conclusion, an abnormal QRS|T angle, as measured on a 12-lead electrocardiogram, was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in this population-based sample without known heart disease

Observed Hostility and the Risk of Incident Ischemic Heart Disease: A Prospective Population Study From the 1995 Canadian Nova Scotia Health Survey

Objectives The aim of this study was to examine the relation between hostility and incident ischemic heart disease (IHD) and to determine whether observed hostility is superior to patient-reported hostility for the prediction of IHD in a large, prospective observational study. Background Some studies have found that hostile patients have an increased risk of incident IHD. However, no studies have compared methods of hostility assessment or considered important psychosocial and cardiovascular risk factors as confounders. Furthermore, it is unknown whether all expressions of hostility carry equal risk or whether certain manifestations are more cardiotoxic. Methods We assessed the independent relationship between baseline observed hostility and 10-year incident IHD in 1,749 adults of the population-based Canadian Nova Scotia Health Survey. Results There were 149 (8.5%) incident IHD events (140 nonfatal, 9 fatal) during the 15,295 person-years of observation (9.74 events/1,000 person-years). Participants with any observed hostility had a greater risk of incident IHD than those without (p = 0.02); no such relation was found for patient-reported hostility. Those with any observed hostility had a significantly greater risk of incident IHD (hazard ratio: 2.06, 95% confidence interval: 1.04 to 4.08, p = 0.04), after adjusting for cardiovascular (age, sex, Framingham Risk Score) and psychosocial (depression, positive affect, patient-reported hostility, and anger) risk factors. Conclusions The presence of any observed hostility at baseline was associated with a 2-fold increased risk of incident IHD over 10 years of follow-up. Compared with patient-reported measures, observed hostility is a superior predictor of IHD

Dynamics Among Borderline Personality and Anxiety Features in Psychotherapy Outpatients: An Exploration of Nomothetic and Idiographic Patterns

Borderline personality disorder (BPD) involves instability in self-concept, emotions, and behavior. However, the dynamic, longitudinal relations among BPD symptoms and between these symptoms and other problematic emotional experiences are poorly understood. It is also unclear whether these dynamics are the same across persons (including across diagnostic boundaries), specific to individuals with BPD, or idiographic. The current study uses ecological momentary assessment and Group Iterative Multiple Model Estimation (GIMME), a novel, data-driven approach to identifying dynamic patterns in time-series data at group, subgroup, and individual levels, to investigate the dynamic connections among select features of BPD (anger, impulsivity, and identity disturbance) and anxiety-related experiences. Forty-two psychiatric outpatients diagnosed with BPD (n = 27) or with an anxiety disorder, but not BPD (n = 15) rated their anger, identity disturbance, impulsivity, anxiety, stress, and calmness states six times per day for 21 days, providing a total of 4,699 surveys. Only one dynamic link between symptoms was identified that applied at the group level, and GIMME did not reveal stable subgroups of individuals with distinct symptom dynamics. Instead, these dynamics differed from individual to individual. These results suggest that connections among these BPD and anxiety symptoms do not depend on diagnosis and are somewhat idiographic. Case examples are used to illustrate the clinical utility of within-person symptom models as a supplement to traditional diagnostic information