Shuttle program. Solar activity prediction of sunspot numbers, predicted solar radio flux

A solar activity prediction technique for monthly mean sunspot numbers over a period of approximately ten years from February 1979 to January 1989 is presented. This includes the predicted maximum epoch of solar cycle 21, approximately January 1980, and the predicted minimum epoch of solar cycle 22, approximately March 1987. Additionally, the solar radio flux 10.7 centimeter smooth values are included for the same time frame using a smooth 13 month empirical relationship. The incentive for predicting solar activity values is the requirement of solar flux data as input to upper atmosphere density models utilized in mission planning satellite orbital lifetime studies

Error estimation in the histogram Monte Carlo method

We examine the sources of error in the histogram reweighting method for Monte Carlo data analysis. We demonstrate that, in addition to the standard statistical error which has been studied elsewhere, there are two other sources of error, one arising through correlations in the reweighted samples, and one arising from the finite range of energies sampled by a simulation of finite length. We demonstrate that while the former correction is usually negligible by comparison with statistical fluctuations, the latter may not be, and give criteria for judging the range of validity of histogram extrapolations based on the size of this latter correction.Comment: 7 pages including 3 postscript figures, typeset in LaTeX using the RevTeX macro packag

Two-Dimensional Scaling Limits via Marked Nonsimple Loops

We postulate the existence of a natural Poissonian marking of the double (touching) points of SLE(6) and hence of the related continuum nonsimple loop process that describes macroscopic cluster boundaries in 2D critical percolation. We explain how these marked loops should yield continuum versions of near-critical percolation, dynamical percolation, minimal spanning trees and related plane filling curves, and invasion percolation. We show that this yields for some of the continuum objects a conformal covariance property that generalizes the conformal invariance of critical systems. It is an open problem to rigorously construct the continuum objects and to prove that they are indeed the scaling limits of the corresponding lattice objects.Comment: 25 pages, 5 figure

Potts Model On Random Trees

We study the Potts model on locally tree-like random graphs of arbitrary degree distribution. Using a population dynamics algorithm we numerically solve the problem exactly. We confirm our results with simulations. Comparisons with a previous approach are made, showing where its assumption of uniform local fields breaks down for networks with nodes of low degree.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figure

The Brownian Web: Characterization and Convergence

The Brownian Web (BW) is the random network formally consisting of the paths of coalescing one-dimensional Brownian motions starting from every space-time point in ${\mathbb R}\times{\mathbb R}$. We extend the earlier work of Arratia and of T\'oth and Werner by providing characterization and convergence results for the BW distribution, including convergence of the system of all coalescing random walkssktop/brownian web/finale/arXiv submits/bweb.tex to the BW under diffusive space-time scaling. We also provide characterization and convergence results for the Double Brownian Web, which combines the BW with its dual process of coalescing Brownian motions moving backwards in time, with forward and backward paths ``reflecting'' off each other. For the BW, deterministic space-time points are almost surely of ``type'' $(0,1)$ -- {\em zero} paths into the point from the past and exactly {\em one} path out of the point to the future; we determine the Hausdorff dimension for all types that actually occur: dimension 2 for type $(0,1)$, 3/2 for $(1,1)$ and $(0,2)$, 1 for $(1,2)$, and 0 for $(2,1)$ and $(0,3)$.Comment: 52 pages with 4 figure

The Universal Cut Function and Type II Metrics

In analogy with classical electromagnetic theory, where one determines the total charge and both electric and magnetic multipole moments of a source from certain surface integrals of the asymptotic (or far) fields, it has been known for many years - from the work of Hermann Bondi - that energy and momentum of gravitational sources could be determined by similar integrals of the asymptotic Weyl tensor. Recently we observed that there were certain overlooked structures, {defined at future null infinity,} that allowed one to determine (or define) further properties of both electromagnetic and gravitating sources. These structures, families of {complex} `slices' or `cuts' of Penrose's null infinity, are referred to as Universal Cut Functions, (UCF). In particular, one can define from these structures a (complex) center of mass (and center of charge) and its equations of motion - with rather surprising consequences. It appears as if these asymptotic structures contain in their imaginary part, a well defined total spin-angular momentum of the source. We apply these ideas to the type II algebraically special metrics, both twisting and twist-free.Comment: 32 page