Shale Public Finance: Local government revenues and costs associated with oil and gas development

Oil and gas development associated with shale resources has increased substantially in the United States, with important implications for local governments. These governments tend to experience increased revenue from a variety of sources, such as severance taxes distributed by the state government, local property taxes and sales taxes, direct payments from oil and gas companies, and in-kind contributions from those companies. Local governments also tend to face increased demand for services such as road repairs due to heavy truck traffic and from population growth associated with the oil and gas sector. This paper describes the major oil- and gas related revenues and service demands (i.e., costs) that county and municipal governments have experienced in Arkansas, Colorado, Louisiana, Montana, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wyoming. Based on extensive interviews with officials in the most heavily affected parts of these states, along with analysis of financial data, it appears that most county and municipal governments have experienced net financial benefits, though some in western North Dakota and eastern Montana appear to have experienced net negative fiscal impacts. Some municipalities in rural Colorado and Wyoming also struggled to manage fiscal impacts during recent oil and gas booms, though these challenges faded as drilling activity slowed

Mitigation: Plausible mitigation targets

Whether the widely accepted 2 °C limit for climate change is practically achievable depends partly on climate sensitivity, but predominantly on complex socio-economic dynamics

Lessons from building an automated pre-departure sequencer for airports

Commercial airports are under increasing pressure to comply with the Eurocontrol collaborative decision making (CDM) initiative, to ensure that information is passed between stakeholders, integrate automated decision support or make predictions. These systems can also aid effective operations beyond the airport by communicating scheduling decisions to other relevant parties, such as Eurocontrol, for passing on to downstream airports and enabling overall airspace improvements. One of the major CDM components is aimed at producing the target take-off times and target startup-approval times, i.e. scheduling when the aircraft should push back from the gates and start their engines and when they will take off. For medium-sized airports, a common choice for this is a “pre-departure sequencer” (PDS). In this paper, we describe the design and requirements challenges which arose during our development of a PDS system for medium sized international airports. Firstly, the scheduling problem is highly dynamic and event driven. Secondly, it is important to end-users that the system be predictable and, as far as possible, transparent in its operation, with decisions that can be explained. Thirdly, users can override decisions, and this information has to be taken into account. Finally, it is important that the system is as fair as possible for all users of the airport, and the interpretation of this is considered here. Together, these factors have influenced the design of the PDS system which has been built to work within an existing large system which is being used at many airport

Some considerations in the design and interpretation of antimalarial drug trials in uncomplicated falciparum malaria

BACKGROUND: Treatments for uncomplicated falciparum malaria should have high cure rates. The World Health Organization has recently set a target cure rate of 95% assessed at 28 days. The use of more effective drugs, with longer periods of patient follow-up, and parasite genotyping to distinguish recrudescence from reinfection raise issues related to the design and interpretation of antimalarial treatment trials in uncomplicated falciparum malaria which are discussed here. METHODS: The importance of adequate follow-up is presented and the advantages and disadvantages of non-inferiority trials are discussed. The different methods of interpreting trial results are described, and the difficulties created by loss to follow-up and missing or indeterminate genotyping results are reviewed. CONCLUSION: To characterize cure rates adequately assessment of antimalarial drug efficacy in uncomplicated malaria requires a minimum of 28 days and as much as 63 days follow-up after starting treatment. The longer the duration of follow-up in community-based assessments, the greater is the risk that this will be incomplete, and in endemic areas, the greater is the probability of reinfection. Recrudescence can be distinguished from reinfection using PCR genotyping but there are commonly missing or indeterminate results. There is no consensus on how these data should be analysed, and so a variety of approaches have been employed. It is argued that the correct approach to analysing antimalarial drug efficacy assessments is survival analysis, and patients with missing or indeterminate PCR results should either be censored from the analysis, or if there are sufficient data, results should be adjusted based on the identified ratio of new infections to recrudescences at the time of recurrent parasitaemia. Where the estimated cure rates with currently recommended treatments exceed 95%, individual comparisons with new regimens should generally be designed as non-inferiority trials with sample sizes sufficient to determine adequate precision of cure rate estimates (such that the lower 95% confidence interval bound exceeds 90%)

On the relation between action selection and movement control in 5- to 9-month-old infants

Although 5-month-old infants select action modes that are adaptive to the size of the object (i.e., one- or two-handed reaching), it has largely remained unclear whether infants of this age control the ensuing movement to the size of the object (i.e., scaling of the aperture between hands). We examined 5-, 7-, and 9-month-olds’ reaching behaviors to gain more insight into the developmental changes occurring in the visual guidance of action mode selection and movement control, and the relationship between these processes. Infants were presented with a small set of objects (i.e., 2, 3, 7, and 8 cm) and a large set of objects (i.e., 6, 9, 12, and 15 cm). For the first set of objects, it was found that the infants more often performed two-handed reaches for the larger objects based on visual information alone (i.e., before making contact with the object), thus showing adaptive action mode selection relative to object size. Kinematical analyses of the two-handed reaches for the second set of objects revealed that inter-trial variance in aperture between the hands decreased with the approach toward the object, indicating that infants’ reaching is constrained by the object. Subsequent analysis showed that between hand aperture scaled to object size, indicating that visual control of the movement is adjusted to object size in infants as young as 5 months. Individual analyses indicated that the two processes were not dependent and followed distinct developmental trajectories. That is, adaptive selection of an action mode was not a prerequisite for appropriate aperture scaling, and vice versa. These findings are consistent with the idea of two separate and independent visual systems (Milner and Goodale in Neuropsychologia 46:774–785, 2008) during early infancy

Climate change, precipitation and impacts on an estuarine refuge from disease

© The Author(s), 2011. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in PLoS One 6 (2011): e18849, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0018849.Oysters play important roles in estuarine ecosystems but have suffered recently due to overfishing, pollution, and habitat loss. A tradeoff between growth rate and disease prevalence as a function of salinity makes the estuarine salinity transition of special concern for oyster survival and restoration. Estuarine salinity varies with discharge, so increases or decreases in precipitation with climate change may shift regions of low salinity and disease refuge away from optimal oyster bottom habitat, negatively impacting reproduction and survival. Temperature is an additional factor for oyster survival, and recent temperature increases have increased vulnerability to disease in higher salinity regions. We examined growth, reproduction, and survival of oysters in the New York Harbor-Hudson River region, focusing on a low-salinity refuge in the estuary. Observations were during two years when rainfall was above average and comparable to projected future increases in precipitation in the region and a past period of about 15 years with high precipitation. We found a clear tradeoff between oyster growth and vulnerability to disease. Oysters survived well when exposed to intermediate salinities during two summers (2008, 2010) with moderate discharge conditions. However, increased precipitation and discharge in 2009 reduced salinities in the region with suitable benthic habitat, greatly increasing oyster mortality. To evaluate the estuarine conditions over longer periods, we applied a numerical model of the Hudson to simulate salinities over the past century. Model results suggest that much of the region with suitable benthic habitat that historically had been a low salinity refuge region may be vulnerable to higher mortality under projected increases in precipitation and discharge. Predicted increases in precipitation in the northeastern United States due to climate change may lower salinities past important thresholds for oyster survival in estuarine regions with appropriate substrate, potentially disrupting metapopulation dynamics and impeding oyster restoration efforts, especially in the Hudson estuary where a large basin constitutes an excellent refuge from disease.Funding was provided by the Hudson River Foundation, grant number 00607A, and the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (MOU 2008)

Delayed consultation among pulmonary tuberculosis patients: a cross sectional study of 10 DOTS districts of Ethiopia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Delays seeking care increase transmission of pulmonary tuberculosis and hence the burden of tuberculosis, which remains high in developing countries. This study investigates patterns of health seeking behavior and determines risk factors for delayed patient consultation at public health facilities in 10 districts of Ethiopia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>New pulmonary TB patients ≥ 15 years old were recruited at 18 diagnostic centres. Patients were asked about their health care seeking behaviour and the time from onset of symptoms to first consultation at a public health facility. First consultation at a public health facility 30 days or longer after onset of symptoms was regarded as prolonged patient delay.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Interviews were held with 924 pulmonary patients. Of these, 537 (58%) were smear positive and 387 (42%) were smear negative; 413 (45%) were female; 451 (49%) were rural residents; and the median age was 34 years. Prior to their first consultation at a public health facility, patients received treatment from a variety of informal sources: the Orthodox Church, where they were treated with holy water (24%); private practitioners (13%); rural drug vendors (7%); and traditional healers (3%). The overall median patient delay was 30 days (mean = 60 days). Fifty three percent [95% Confidence Intervals (CI) (50%, 56%)] of patients had delayed their first consultation for ≥ 30 days. Patient delay for women was 54%; 95% CI (54%, 58%) and men 51%; 95% CI (47%, 55%). The delay was higher for patients who used informal treatment (median 31 days) than those who did not (15 days). Prolonged patient delay (≥ 30 days) was significantly associated with both patient-related and treatment-related factors. Significant patient-related factors were smear positive pulmonary disease [Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) 1.4; 95% CI (1.1 to 1.9)], rural residence [AOR 1.4; 95% CI (1.1 to 1.9)], illiteracy [AOR 1.7; 95% CI (1.2 to 2.4)], and lack of awareness/misperceptions of causes of pulmonary TB. Significant informal treatment-related factors were prior treatment with holy water [AOR 3.5; 95% CI (2.4 to 5)], treatment by private practitioners [AOR 1.7; 95% CI (1.1 to 2.6)] and treatment by drug vendors [AOR 1.9; 95% CI (1.1 to 3.5)].</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Nearly half of pulmonary tuberculosis patients delayed seeking health care at a public health facility while getting treatment from informal sources. The involvement of religious institutions and private practitioners in early referral of patients with pulmonary symptoms and creating public awareness about tuberculosis could help reduce delays in starting modern treatment.</p