Estimating Urban Road Congestion Costs

Economists wishing to analyse road congestion and road pricing have usually relied on link-based speed-flow relationships. These may provide a poor description of urban congestion, which mainly arises from delays at intersections. Using the simulation model SATURN, we investigate the second-best proportional traffic reduction and find that linear speed-flow relations describe network flows quite well in eight English towns, though the predicted congestion costs and charges overstate those apparently required in our second best model. We then confront the results with feasible optimal cordon charges, and find them reasonably correlated, but imperfect predictors.

Road taxes, road user charges and earmarking

The UK Road Fund was set up in 1921 and financed by earmarked taxes, but was unsuccessful as a form of road finance and abandoned in 1937. The paper examines why earmarking failed and what problems arise for replacing road taxes by hypothecated road charges. These charges would need to be regulated and could evolve into a more efficient system of road pricing. The paper claims that recent experiences with regulating capital-intensive network industries make road user charging and the commercialisation of the public highway both feasible and desirable, but that recent government proposals for local earmarked taxes are inadequate.

'Core Indicators for Determinants and Performance of Electricity Sector in Developing Countries’

Since the early 1990s, substantial resources and effort have been spent on implementing market-oriented electricity reform in developing countries. Important sectoral, economic, and social dimensions are involved in electricity reform, but empirical analysis and evaluation have been of limited use for testing the economic rationale of reform and policy advice. This may partly be attributed to a lack of generally accepted and measured indicators for monitoring progress, impact and performance, unlike areas such as health, education, environment, sustainable development. In this paper we propose a set of indicators as a first step towards filling this gap and developing a coherent framework for studying electricity reform in developing countries covering resource and institutional endowments, key reform steps, market structure, performance, and various impacts.Electricity, Reform, developing countries

Questioning the EU Target Electricity Model – how should it be adapted to deliver the Trilemma?

Britain considers the energy-only EU Target Electricity Model (TEM) wanting in delivering the trilemma of reliability, sustainability and affordability and argues that a capacity auction with long-term contracts for new entrants is the least-cost solution compared to relying on expectations of future prices to deliver adequate generation and demand side response. The Energy Union argues against feed-in tariffs (FiTs) for renewables, pressing for premium FiTs (pFiTs), just as GB has abandoned PFiTs in favour of FiTs. This paper draws on the GB experience of Electricity Market Reform before and after the 2015 change of government, to highlight promising resolutions of the energy trilemma, and the problems that have arisen between the diagnosis of the problem and the delivery of solutions. It sets out the theory and practice of delivering capacity, energy and quality of supply, gives a brief history of GB electricity from the CEGB to its current unbundled, liberalized and privatized structure. That sheds light on the trilemma problem and discusses possible solutions. The island of Ireland Single Electricity Market reforms illustrate the problem and possible answer of how best to deliver quality of service with high intermittency

Pricing electricity and supporting renewables in Heavily Energy Subsidized Economies

Heavily Energy Subsidized Economies, defined as having budgetary subsidies above 1.5% of GDP, on average in 2014 spent 4% of GDP on subsidizing energy. Resource rents permit administratively undemanding transfers to citizens to maintain political support. Once in place, benefitting groups will resist their removal, despite the resulting inefficient consumption and the lock-in risk caused by sustained low energy prices. Collapsing energy prices that deliver severe fiscal shocks combined with growing concerns over climate change damage make carefully designed reforms both urgent and politically more acceptable. Understanding their political logic suggests designing reforms that compensate the most vocal interest groups and there is evidence that this is increasingly recognized. The paper presents evidence on the magnitude and impacts of oil gas and electricity subsidies, and discusses how the electricity sector can be weaned of subsidies while reducing its carbon emissions

‘Electricity Sector Reform in Developing Countries: A Survey of Empirical Evidence on Determinants and Performance’

This paper reviews the empirical evidence on electricity reform in developing countries. We find that country institutions and sector governance play an important role in success and failure of reform; reforms appear to have increased operating efficiency and expanded access to urban customers; they have to a lesser degree passed on efficiency gains to customers, tackled distributional effects, or improved rural access. Moreover, some of the literature is not methodologically robust or on a par with general development economics literature and findings on some issues are limited and inconclusive while some important areas are yet to be addressed. Until we know more, implementation of reforms will be more based on ideology and economic theory rather than solid economic evidence.Electricity, reform, developing countries

Alternative instruments for smoothing the consumption of primary commodity exporters

Countries that depend on a single primary export for their foreign earnings are likely to experience sharp fluctuations in export earnings and their underlying wealth, because of the instability of all primary commodity markets. As part of structural adjustment, several countries have liberalized their trade regimes, so domestic producers are no longer insulated from international price fluctuations. This paper concentrates on the management of country-level consumption risk, and considers actions which the government might undertake to reduce the cost of that risk. The paper reviews the costs of export price instability, with some reference to the empirical magnitudes. It considers the role of conventional instruments, including loans, price stabilization measures, and futures contracts. Particular attention is paid to the potential use of futures rollovers for longer-term price protection, and the effect of production response on that protection. The paper also discusses"commodity bonds"and dynamic consumption smoothing paths and offers conclusions.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Access to Markets,Markets and Market Access

The Final Hurdle?: Security of supply, the Capacity Mechanism and the role of interconnectors

The UK Government has developed a carefully designed Capacity Mechanism to ensure security of supply in the GB electricity system. This paper criticises the methods used to determine the amount of capacity to procure, and argues that the amount finally proposed is likely to be excessive, particularly (but not exclusively) in ignoring the contribution from interconnectors. More broadly, there has been too little attention to either the political economy, or the option value aspects. Procuring too little is risky, but fear of'the lights going out' can easily become a catch-all argument for excessive procurement, and associated subsidy. The risk of over-procurement, particularly of new capacity on long-term contracts, is that it drives up the costs to consumers; undermines renewable energy by transferring capped resources from renewable to fossil fuel producers; and impedes the Single Market including by weakening the business case for future interconnectors. The paper argues that the development of technologies and markets, particularly on the demand- side and of potentially available – 'latent' – capacity - further lowers the risks and increases options. This implies greater potential to defer more capacity procurement – and enhances the value of a more appropriate treatment of interconnectors in security assessments

Plurality of tree species responses to drought perturbation in Bornean tropical rain forest

Drought perturbation driven by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a principal stochastic variable determining the dynamics of lowland rain forest in S.E. Asia. Mortality, recruitment and stem growth rates at Danum in Sabah (Malaysian Borneo) were recorded in two 4-ha plots (trees≥10cm gbh) for two periods, 1986-1996 and 1996-2001. Mortality and growth were also recorded in a sample of subplots for small trees (10 to <50cm gbh) in two sub-periods, 1996-1999 and 1999-2001. Dynamics variables were employed to build indices of drought response for each of the 34 most abundant plot-level species (22 at the subplot level), these being interval-weighted percentage changes between periods and sub-periods. A significant yet complex effect of the strong 1997/1998 drought at the forest community level was shown by randomization procedures followed by multiple hypothesis testing. Despite a general resistance of the forest to drought, large and significant differences in short-term responses were apparent for several species. Using a diagrammatic form of stability analysis, different species showed immediate or lagged effects, high or low degrees of resilience or even oscillatory dynamics. In the context of the local topographic gradient, species' responses define the newly termed perturbation response niche. The largest responses, particularly for recruitment and growth, were among the small trees, many of which are members of understorey taxa. The results bring with them a novel approach to understanding community dynamics: the kaleidoscopic complexity of idiosyncratic responses to stochastic perturbations suggests that plurality, rather than neutrality, of responses may be essential to understanding these tropical forests. The basis to the various responses lies with the mechanisms of tree-soil water relations which are physiologically predictable: the timing and intensity of the next drought, however, is not. To date, environmental stochasticity has been insufficiently incorporated into models of tropical forest dynamics, a step that might considerably improve the reality of theories about these globally important ecosystem