On the efficacy of the wisdom of crowds to forecast economic indicators

The interest in the wisdom of crowds stems mainly from the possibility of combining independent forecasts from experts in the hope that many expert minds are better than a few. Hence the relevant subject of study nowadays is the Vox Expertorum rather than Galton's original Vox Populi. Here we use the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters to analyze $15455$ forecasting contests to predict a variety of economic indicators. We find that the median has advantages over the mean as a method to combine the experts' estimates: the odds that the crowd beats all participants of a forecasting contest is $0.015$ when the aggregation is given by the mean and $0.026$ when it is given by the median. In addition, the median is always guaranteed to beat the majority of the participants, whereas the mean beats that majority in 67 percent of the forecasts only. Both aggregation methods yield a $20$ percent error on the average, which must be contrasted with the $15$ percent error of the contests' winners. A standard time series forecasting algorithm, the ARIMA model, yields a $31$ percent error on the average. However, since the expected error of a randomly selected forecaster is about $22$ percent, our conclusion is that selective attention is the most likely explanation for the mysterious high accuracy of the crowd reported in the literature

Manipulation of Magnetic Skyrmions by Superconducting Vortices in Ferromagnet-Superconductor Heterostructures

Dynamics of magnetic skyrmions in hybrid ferromagnetic films harbors novel physical phenomena and holds promise for technological applications. In this work, we discuss the behavior of magnetic skyrmions when coupled to superconducting vortices in a ferromagnet-superconductor heterostructure. We use numerical simulations and analytic arguments to reveal broader possibilities for manipulating the skyrmion-vortex dynamic correlations in the hybrid system, that are not possible in its separated constituents. We explore the thresholds of particular dynamic phases, and quantify the phase diagram as a function of the relevant material parameters, applied current and induced magnetic torques. Finally, we demonstrate the broad and precise tunability of the skyrmion Hall-angle in presence of vortices, with respect to currents applied to either or both the superconductor and the ferromagnet within the heterostructure

Fur controls iron homeostasis and oxidative stress defense in the oligotrophic alpha-proteobacterium Caulobacter crescentus

In most bacteria, the ferric uptake regulator (Fur) is a global regulator that controls iron homeostasis and other cellular processes, such as oxidative stress defense. In this work, we apply a combination of bioinformatics, in vitro and in vivo assays to identify the Caulobacter crescentus Fur regulon. A C. crescentus fur deletion mutant showed a slow growth phenotype, and was hypersensitive to H2O2 and organic peroxide. Using a position weight matrix approach, several predicted Fur-binding sites were detected in the genome of C. crescentus, located in regulatory regions of genes not only involved in iron uptake and usage but also in other functions. Selected Fur-binding sites were validated using electrophoretic mobility shift assay and DNAse I footprinting analysis. Gene expression assays revealed that genes involved in iron uptake were repressed by iron-Fur and induced under conditions of iron limitation, whereas genes encoding iron-using proteins were activated by Fur under conditions of iron sufficiency. Furthermore, several genes that are regulated via small RNAs in other bacteria were found to be directly regulated by Fur in C. crescentus. In conclusion, Fur functions as an activator and as a repressor, integrating iron metabolism and oxidative stress response in C. crescentus

Fur controls iron homeostasis and oxidative stress defense in the oligotrophic alpha-proteobacterium Caulobacter crescentus

In most bacteria, the ferric uptake regulator (Fur) is a global regulator that controls iron homeostasis and other cellular processes, such as oxidative stress defense. In this work, we apply a combination of bioinformatics, in vitro and in vivo assays to identify the Caulobacter crescentus Fur regulon. A C. crescentus fur deletion mutant showed a slow growth phenotype, and was hypersensitive to H2O2 and organic peroxide. Using a position weight matrix approach, several predicted Fur-binding sites were detected in the genome of C. crescentus, located in regulatory regions of genes not only involved in iron uptake and usage but also in other functions. Selected Fur-binding sites were validated using electrophoretic mobility shift assay and DNAse I footprinting analysis. Gene expression assays revealed that genes involved in iron uptake were repressed by iron-Fur and induced under conditions of iron limitation, whereas genes encoding iron-using proteins were activated by Fur under conditions of iron sufficiency. Furthermore, several genes that are regulated via small RNAs in other bacteria were found to be directly regulated by Fur in C. crescentus. In conclusion, Fur functions as an activator and as a repressor, integrating iron metabolism and oxidative stress response in C. crescentus

Effects of a Single Venous Dose of Zinc on Thyroid Status in Healthy Individuals and Patients With Graves' Disease

Zinc metabolism may regulate thyroid function acting at TRH (thyrotropin-releasing hormone) synthesis, peripheral deiodination of T4 (tetraiodothyronine), and binding of thyroid hormones to nuclear receptors. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of acute zinc administration on TSH (thyroid-stimulating hormone), FT3 (free triiodothyronine), and FT4 (free tetraiodothyronine) in 10 healthy individuals and 12 hyperthyroid patients with Graves' disease. All these individuals were studied following 25 mg Zn++ administered intravenously, at 7:00 a.m. after 12 h fast. Blood samples collected at 0, 3, 30, 60, 90, and 120 min after zinc administration showed no significant alteration in the plasma levels of TSH, FT3, and FT4 in hyperthyroid patients. There were no changes in the plasma levels of FT3 and FT4 in the control subjects, but TSH levels were acutely depressed by zinc administration. This study suggests that zinc given acutely and in pharmacological doses does not affect thyroid function in hyperthyroid subjects, but affect plasma TSH levels in healthy individuals

Surface functionalization of cuttlefish bone-derived biphasic calcium phosphate scaffolds with polymeric coatings

Cuttlefish bone (CB) has been explored as biomaterial in the bone tissue-engineering field due to its unique porous structure and capacity of the aragonite mineral to be hydrothermally converted into calcium phosphates (CaPs). In the present study, undoped and ion (Sr2+, Mg2+ and/or Zn2+) doped biphasic calcium phosphate (BCP) scaffolds were prepared by hydrothermal transformation (HT, 200 °C, 24 h) of CB. The obtained scaffolds were sintered and then coated with two commercial polymers, poly(ε-caprolactone) (PCL) or poly(DL-lactide) (PDLA), and with two synthesized ones, a poly(ester amide) (PEA) or a poly(ester urea) (PEU) in order to improve their compressive strength. The scaffolds were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD) coupled with structural Rietveld refinement, Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy, and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The results demonstrate that CB could be entirely transformed into BCPs in the presence or absence of doping elements. The initial CB structure was preserved and the polymeric coatings did not jeopardize the interconnected porous structure. Furthermore, the polymeric coatings enhanced the compressive strength of the scaffolds. The in vitro bio-mineralization upon immersing the scaffolds into simulated body fluid (SBF) demonstrated the formation of bone-like apatite surface layers in both uncoated and coated scaffolds. Overall, the produced scaffolds exhibit promising properties for bone tissue engineering applications.publishe

Antioxidant activity of macroalgae from the Azores

Free radical scavenging activity (FRSA) was studied to determine the antioxidant activity of 8 common macroalgae species found in the Azores. Species under study were Porphyra sp., Osmundea pinnatifida, Pterocladiella capillacea, Sphaerococcus coronopifolius and Gelidium microdon, from Rhodophyta; Ulva compressa and Chaetomorpha pachynema, from Chlorophyta and Fucus spiralis from Phaeophyta.The antioxidant activity was evaluated in methanolic extract by a decolourisation solution test of 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH), used as a stable radical. The methanolic extracts were obtained from dried biomass by sequential extractions, attaining a final concentration of 2 mg.mL-1. The FRSA values ranged from 19.54% for S. coronopifolius to 60.05% for F. spiralis with standard deviation (SD) varying between 1.41% and 6.80%. Results indicated that the studied seaweeds are a very promising source of biological active compounds with antioxidante properties. The seaweeds were collected in the Azorean islands where seawater pollution levels are low. Consequently, these seaweeds represent a valuable and good source of antioxidante material with superior beneficial effects on human health

Nutritional value of selected macroalgae

Copyright © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011.Macroalgae are traditionally used in human and animal nutrition. Their protein and fiber content have been widely studied and differ according to the species, their geographic origin and their seasonal conditions. In addition to their value for human nutrition, seaweeds have multiple therapeutically applications (e.g., weight control, hypocholesterolemic, antioxidant and antitumor activities, others) and, in general, contribute and promote human health. In the archipelago of the Azores, the consumption of seaweeds is widespread and accepted as a common practice in some islands. This work is aimed at providing information on the protein and fiber content of the locally consumed species, to promote this regional food product that can be potentially profitable from the biotechnology and commercial perspective, and also benefit public health, particularly, taking into account the low level of marine pollution in the Azores archipelago. Protein and fiber content of eight seaweeds (Porphyra sp., Osmundea pinnatifida, Pterocladiella capillacea, Sphaerococcus coronopifolius, and Gelidium microdon, Rhodophyta; Cystoseira abies-marina and Fucus spiralis, Phaeophyta; Ulva compressa, Chlorophyta) were determined using the Kjeldahl method and the Weende method, respectively. The protein content ranged from 6.81 to 26.62 of dry weight for C. abies-marina and U. compressa, respectively. Fiber content was generally higher as compared with that in seaweeds from other origins and ranged from 33.82 to 63.88 for O. pinnatifida and F. spiralis, respectively

Biotechnological applications of selected macroalgae

IBBA Strategic Planning - Workshop III, Plant Biotechnology Ponta Delgada, 25 Janeiro, 2011