Future state of Norwegian glaciers: Estimating glacier mass balance and equilibrium line responses to projected 21st century climate change

Glaciers and ice caps in Norway are presently undergoing mass loss, areal reduction, and frontal retreat, mainly a result of increased summer ablation due to rising summer temperatures over Scandinavia, especially after 2000 CE. In this paper, the glacier mass-balance response of 10 Norwegian glaciers with continuous mass balance observations (>10 years) to climate projections from 1971–2000 to 2071–2100 have been estimated. Projected changes in mean summer temperature and mean winter precipitation from 1971–2000 to 2071–2100, applying the RCP8.5 emission scenario for five different regions in Norway; ‘Sogn og Fjordane’ and ‘Hordaland’, now Vestland County in western Norway, ‘Oppland’, now part of Innlandet County in eastern Norway, and Nordland County and Finnmark County, both in Northern Norway), range between +3.5°C and +5.0°C, and between +5% and +25%, respectively. These climate projections have been converted (by linear regression with overlapping observational mass-balance data) into specific surface glacier mass balance [winter balance (Bw), summer balance (Bs), and annual balance (Ba) for 10 glaciers in Norway with mass-balance series [Ålfotbreen, Nigardsbreen (part of Jostedalsbreen), Austdalsbreen (part of Jostedalsbreen), Rembesdalskåka (part of Hardangerjøkulen), Blomstølskardsbreen (part of Søre Folgefonna), Storbrean, Hellstugubrean, Gråsubrean, Engabreen (part of Vestre Svartisen, Langfjordjøkelen (data: http://glacier.nve.no/glacier/viewer/ci/no/) yielding a total, cumulative surface glacier mass loss from 2000 to 2100 CE in the range of -85.2 ± 4 to -197.3 ± 10 m water equivalents. The estimated changes in equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs), in the range of 230 ± 10 to 630 ± 30 m, indicate that the mean ELA may reach the upper part of 7 of the 10 glaciers included in this study [Ålfotbreen, Austdalsbreen, Rembesdalskåka, Blomstølskardsbreen, Gråsubrean, Engabreen and Langfjordjøkelen] by the end of the 21st century. The projected glacier mass loss and ELA rise, and thus changes in glacier length, area and volume, will most likely have profound consequences for future glacier hydrology (runoff), hydropower production, wildlife, ecosystems, glacier hazards, and tourism.publishedVersio

Dagens klima- og breforsking – med røter tilbake til dei første breforskarane

Høgare temperaturar, minkande brear, mindre sjøis i Arktis og stigande globalt havnivå på grunn av smelting av is på land, har gjort studiar av brear, iskapper og innlandsisane på Grønland og i Antarktis meir aktuelle enn tidlegare. Ein omfattande studie publisert i Nature i 2019 syner at isbrear rundt om på kloden smeltar 18 prosent raskare enn i ein tilsvarande studie frå 2013, og at om lag 369 milliardar tonn med snø og is kvart år smeltar frå brear

The 'Little Ice Age' – only temperature?

Understanding the climate of the last few centuries, including the 'Little Ice Age', may help us better understand modern-day natural climate variability and make climate predictions. The conventional view of the climate development during the last millennium has been that it followed the simple sequence of a 'Mediaeval Warm Period', a cool 'Little Ice Age' followed by warming in the later part of the nineteenth century and during the twentieth century. This view was mainly based on evidence from western Europe and the North Atlantic region. Recent research has, however, challenged this rather simple sequence of climate development in the recent past. Data presented here indicate that the rapid glacier advance in the early eighteenth century in southern Norway was mainly due to increased winter precipitation: mild, wet winters due to prevailing 'positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) weather mode' in the first half of the eighteenth century; and not only lower summer temperatures. A comparison of recent mass-balance records and 'Little Ice Age' glacier fluctuations in southern Norway and the European Alps suggests that the asynchronous 'Little Ice Age' maxima in the two regions may be attributed to multidecadal trends in the north–south dipole NAO pattern.publishedVersio

The ‘Little Ice Age’ advance of Nigardsbreen, Norway: A cross-disciplinary revision of the chronological framework

This study presents a cross-disciplinary revision of the Little Ice Age (LIA) advance of Nigardsbreen glacier, an outlet from Jostedalsbreen ice cap in western Norway. The associated glacier foreland is characterised by a well-preserved moraine series succeeding the 1748 CE LIA culmination, and a robust age control of individual moraines exists from abundant historical written and pictorial information as well as extensive lichenometric studies. The retreat dynamics of Nigardsbreen ever since the LIA maximum extent was attained is considered well-known. The timing of initiation of the LIA advance and dynamics of the glacier growth prior to reaching its maximum extent, however, is less understood as any moraines predating 1748 CE have been subsequently overridden. Potential archives available for exploring the glacier advance are therefore mostly confined to historical data such as for example, tax records, paintings, and church books, which has resulted in a present-day consensus of the LIA onset of Nigardsbreen c. 1710 CE. However, we show that a lack of adequate critical analysis on the accuracy of published historical data has allowed erroneous ages of glacier terminus positions to manifest in literature, resulting in for example, overestimated glacial advance rates. Here, we combine a novel data set of local tax load directly reflecting glacial impact on farming productivity with a cross-disciplinary assessment of published historical data, including rejection of several data points of former glacier extents. As a result, we present a revised glacier length curve for the LIA advance of Nigardsbreen towards its maximum extent.publishedVersio

Stratigraphy and age of a Neoglacial sedimentary succession of proglacial outwash and an alluvial fan in Langedalen, Veitastrond, western Norway

This study presents the sedimentary succession of an outwash plain and an alluvial fan located along the valley Langedalen at the south-eastern side of the Jostedalsbreen ice cap in inner Sogn, western Norway. A newly exposed ~2.8-m-high section along the southern riverbank of Langedøla river shows alternating layers of minerogenic sediments and peat layers with tree logs, identified as Salix sp. The section is situated in the distal part of an alluvial fan built out from the southern slope of Langedalen. Six AMS radiocarbon dates of tree fragments indicate that the accumulation of the fine-grained sediments in the lower part of the section was initiated earlier than the basal radiocarbon date of 914–976 calibrated years CE (1σ age range). These basal, fine-grained sediments are interpreted as proglacial outwash deposited in a floodplain depression or abandoned river channel in a low-energy glaciofluvial environment. Periods of low glacier cover, low river discharge or low-water stands over the floodplain allowed peat formation and the growth of trees and shrubs in the valley. The radiocarbon dates further indicate relatively rapid sediment accretion (~2.7–3 cm a−1) between 190 and 125 cm below the sediment surface, equivalent to approximately 1220 to 1250 cal. a CE (1σ age range). At ~60 cm depth below the surface, dated to approximately 1590 to 1620 cal. a CE (1σ age range), a transition to more coarse-grained, sandy and gravelly sediments indicates increased sediment supply and distal expansion of the alluvial fan. This occurred most likely as a consequence of increased sediment yield from expanding glaciers along the southern valley side of Langedalen as a response to the initial Little Ice Age glacier growth. Based on these results, the accretion and progradation of glacier-fed alluvial fans mainly occur during periods of glacier advance rather than during glacier recession.publishedVersio

Radiocarbon dates of two musk ox vertebrae reveal ice-free conditions during late Marine Isotope Stage 3 in central South Norway

One of the most reliable proofs of terrestrial ice-free conditions within Stadials is the presence of terrestrial vertebrate fauna that require access to vegetation in the winter, for example sedentary birds such as Ptarmigans and herbivorous mammals in particular. The musk ox (Ovibos moschatus) is an example of the latter; modern-day distributions of this species are limited to areas with low snow accumulations. In this paper we discuss the discovery of musk ox bones in Norway. Recently obtained radiocarbon dates on this material demonstrate the presence of this species 41–35 cal kyr B.P. in southern Norway during late Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3). Furthermore the dates have implications for the interpretation of climate and environmental conditions; indicating the existence of a small ice cap in the mountains and climate and vegetation supporting a large mammal fauna in South Norway at that time.publishedVersio

Reconstruction of former glacier equilibrium-line altitudes based on proglacial sites: an evaluation of approaches and selection of sites

Various approaches are used to record variations in glacier activity and equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs) based on proglacial sites (lacustrine and terrestrial). These approaches are based on a conceptual model of glacier-meltwater induced sedimentation in which the minerogenic (nonorganic) component of the sediments is related to the occurrence of a glacier in the catchment. The principal coupling to former glacier activity and ELAs is common for these approaches. However, different methods and techniques may complement each other, and both possibilities and limitations are demonstrated. Site selection for reconstructing variations in glacier activity/ELAs is evaluated and critical factors are discussed. Rerouting of glacier meltwater streams across local watersheds in combination with proglacial sites gives a distinct on/off signal for former glacier activity/ELAs. Together with representative lateral moraines of known age, local watersheds are important for calibrating reconstructed glacier activity/ELAs based on a chain of proglacial lakes. Based on the ‘modern analogue principle’, various proxies can record whenever glaciers existed in a catchment. In a chain of proglacial lakes with different sensitivity to record variations in glacier activity/ELAs, these proxies can be calibrated against independent records. For one-site approaches, however, variations in glacier activity/ELAs depend on the interpretation and sensitivity of the proxies used

Ötzi, 30 years on: A reappraisal of the depositional and post-depositional history of the find

When Ötzi, the Iceman, was found in a gully in the Tisenjoch pass in the Tyrolean Alps in 1991, he was a huge surprise for the archaeological community. The lead initial investigator of the find argued that it was unique, preserved by serendipitous circumstances. It was hypothesised that the mummy with associated artefacts had been quickly covered by glacier ice and stayed buried until the melt-out in 1991. It is now more than 30 years since Ötzi appeared. In this paper, we take a closer look at how the find can be understood today, benefitting from increased knowledge gained from more than two decades of investigations of other glacial archaeological sites, and from previous palaeo-biological investigations of the find assemblage. In the light of radiocarbon dates from the gully and new glaciological evidence regarding mass balance, it is likely that Ötzi was not permanently buried in ice immediately after his death, but that the gully where he lay was repeatedly exposed over the next 1500 years. We discuss the nature of the ice covering the site, which is commonly described as a basally sliding glacier. Based on the available evidence, this ice is better understood as a non-moving, stationary field of snow and ice, frozen to the bedrock. The damaged artefacts found with Ötzi were probably broken by typical postdepositional processes on glacial archaeological sites, and not, as previously claimed, during conflict prior to Ötzi’s flight from the valley below.publishedVersio

Holocene glacier variability and Neoglacial hydroclimate at Ålfotbreen, western Norway

Glaciers and small ice caps respond rapidly to climate perturbations (mainly winter precipitation, and summer temperature), and the mass-balance of glaciers located in western Norway is governed mainly by winter precipitation (Pw). Records of past Pw can offer important insight into long-term changes in atmospheric circulation, but few proxies are able to accurately capture winter climate variations in Scandinavia. Reconstructions of equilibrium-line-altitude (ELA) variations from glaciers that are sensitive to changes in Pw therefore provide a unique opportunity to quantify past winter climate in this region. Here we present a new, Holocene glacier activity reconstruction for the maritime ice cap Ålfotbreen in western Norway, based on investigations of distal glacier-fed lake sediments and modern mass balance measurements (1963–2010). Several lake sediment cores have been subject to a suite of laboratory analyses, including measurements of physical parameters such as dry bulk density (DBD) and loss-on-ignition (LOI), geochemistry (XRF), surface magnetic susceptibility (MS), and grain size distribution, to identify glacial sedimentation in the lake. Both radiocarbon (AMS 14C) and 210Pb dating were applied to establish age-depth relationships in the sediment cores. A novel approach was used to calibrate the sedimentary record against a simple ELA model, which allowed reconstruction of continuous ELA changes for Ålfotbreen during the Neoglacial (when Ålfotbreen was present, i.e. the last ∼1400 years). Furthermore, the resulting ELA variations were combined with an independent summer temperature record to calculate Neoglacial Pw using the ‘Liestøl equation’. The resulting Pw record is of higher resolution than previous reconstructions from glaciers in Norway and shows the potential of glacier records to provide high-resolution data reflecting past variations in hydroclimate. Complete deglaciation of the Ålfotbreen occurred ∼9700 cal yr BP, and the ice cap was subsequently absent or very small until a short-lived glacier event is seen in the lake sediments ∼8200 cal yr BP. The ice cap was most likely completely melted until a new glacier event occurred around ∼5300 cal yr BP, coeval with the onset of the Neoglacial at several other glaciers in southwestern Norway. Ålfotbreen was thereafter absent (or very small) until the onset of the Neoglacial period ∼1400 cal yr BP. The ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA) ∼650–50 cal yr BP was the largest glacier advance of Ålfotbreen since deglaciation, with a maximum extent at ∼400–200 cal yr BP, when the ELA was lowered approximately 200 m relative to today. The late onset of the Neoglacial at Ålfotbreen is suggested to be a result of its low altitude relative to the regional ELA. A synthesis of Neoglacial ELA fluctuations along the coast of Norway indicates a time-transgressive trend in the maximum extent of the LIA, which apparently seems to have occurred progressively later as we move northwards. We suggest that this trend is likely due to regional winter precipitation differences along the coast of Norway.publishedVersio

Evidence for rapid paraglacial formation of rock glaciers in southern Norway from 10Be surface-exposure dating

We evaluate the timing and environmental controls on past rock-glacier activity at Øyberget, upper Ottadalen, southern Norway, using in situ 10Be surface-exposure dating on (1) boulders belonging to relict rock-glacier lobes at c. 530 m asl, (2) bedrock and boulder surfaces at the Øyberget summit (c. 1200 m asl), and (3) bedrock at an up-valley site (c. 615 m asl). We find that the rock-glacier lobes became inactive around 11.1 ± 1.2 ka, coeval with the timing of summit deglaciation (11.2 ± 0.7 ka). This is slightly older than previously published Schmidt-hammer surface-exposure ages. The timing does not match known climatic conditions promoting rock-glacier formation in the early Holocene; hence we infer that lobe formation resulted from enhanced debris supply and burial of residual ice during and soon after deglaciation. The results demonstrate that rock glaciers may form over a relatively short period of time (hundreds rather than thousands of years) under non-permafrost conditions and possibly indicate a paraglacial type of process