Factors Associated With Being Overweight or Obese in Suriname

Objective: To identify the socio-demographic risk factors that are associated with adult Body Mass Index.Methods: We apply probit and ordinal probit models to a sample of 3,803 adults aged 20 and above from the 2016/17 round of the Suriname Survey of Living Conditions.Results: Women, the elderly, and couples who are either married and/or living together are more likely to be obese or overweight. This is also true for individuals who have chronic illnesses. We also find that individuals who engage in a sport or in other forms of exercise, even if modest, have lower odds of being overweight or obese. Interestingly, our findings indicate that individuals who benefit from government social safety net programs are less likely to be associated with being overweight or obese.Conclusion: Obesity could become a serious public health issue if not addressed appropriately. Policymakers should promptly develop a national strategy to help health care systems cope with the outcomes of obesity and to tackle the risk factors that have the greatest impacts on individual Body Mass Index

Flash flood detection via copula-based intensity–duration–frequency curves: evidence from Jamaica

Extreme rainfall events frequently cause hazardous floods in many parts of the world. With growing human exposure to floods, studying conditions that trigger floods is imperative. Flash floods, in particular, require well-defined models for the timely warning of the population at risk. Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are a common way to characterize rainfall and flood events. Here, the copula method is employed to model the dependence between the intensity and duration of rainfall events flexibly and separately from their respective marginal distribution. Information about the localization of 93 flash floods in Jamaica was gathered and linked to remote-sensing rainfall data, and additional data on location-specific yearly maximum rainfall events were constructed. The estimated normal copula has Weibull and generalized extreme value (GEV) marginals for duration and intensity, respectively. Due to the two samples, it is possible to pin down above which line in the intensity duration space a rainfall event likely triggers a flash flood. The parametric IDF curve with an associated return period of 2.17 years is determined as the optimal threshold for flash flood event classification. This methodology delivers a flexible approach to generating rainfall IDF curves that can directly be used to assess flash flood risk

The future of economic welfare: analyzing the impact of hurricanes under climate change scenarios

International audienceThis paper investigates the impact of hurricanes on household economic welfare under future climate change scenarios. To this end, we use small area estimation technique to simulate our measure of wel-fare, consumption, for census households with our calculated estimates for hurricane wind damages that capture the type of building material which matters for poverty classification. For future risk as-sessments, we use synthetic tracks to run a hurricane wind field model for the geographical locations where households reside and then rely on estimated welfare coefficients to calculate out probabilities to predict future household outcomes under five different general circulation model (GCM) climate change scenarios. The results are indicative of policy instruments needed to counteract the future risk of welfare reduction

The future of economic welfare: analyzing the impact of hurricanes under climate change scenarios

International audienceThis paper investigates the impact of hurricanes on household economic welfare under future climate change scenarios. To this end, we use small area estimation technique to simulate our measure of wel-fare, consumption, for census households with our calculated estimates for hurricane wind damages that capture the type of building material which matters for poverty classification. For future risk as-sessments, we use synthetic tracks to run a hurricane wind field model for the geographical locations where households reside and then rely on estimated welfare coefficients to calculate out probabilities to predict future household outcomes under five different general circulation model (GCM) climate change scenarios. The results are indicative of policy instruments needed to counteract the future risk of welfare reduction

Poverty and hurricane risk exposure in Jamaica

This paper investigates the impact of hurricane risk exposure on poverty. To achieve this, we use a small area poverty mapping methodology to simulate our measure of poverty for households in Jamaica. Along with calculated hurricane wind exposure estimates that take account of the type of building material which matters for wind vulnerability, we calculate future risks for household poverty under different RCP8.5 climate change models. In general, we find that without wind resistant building material, substantial increases in poverty are likely under most models. The results are indicative of policy instruments needed to counteract the future risk of increases in poverty

Natural Hazard-Induced Disasters and Production Efficiency: Moving Closer to or Further from the Frontier?

Production efficiency is a key determinant of economic growth and demonstrates how a country uses its resources by relating the quantity of its inputs to its outputs. When a natural hazard-induced disaster strikes, it has a devastating impact on capital and labor, but at the same time provides an opportunity to upgrade capital and increase labor demand and training opportunities, thereby potentially boosting production efficiency. We studied the impact of natural hazard-induced disasters on countries’ production efficiency, using the case study of hurricanes in the Caribbean. To this end we built a country-specific, time-varying data set of hurricane damage and national output and input indicators for 17 Caribbean countries for the period 1940–2014. Our results, using a stochastic frontier approach, show that there is a short-lived production efficiency boost, and that this can be large for very damaging storms

The impact of decriminalization on marijuana and alcohol consumption in Jamaica

We examine whether marijuana decriminalization in Jamaica, a country that historically has had relatively widespread use of the drug, has led to an increase in its use, the frequency of use and the money spent on it. To this end, we use a national drug survey dataset with extensive information on people’s use of, attitudes towards, access to marijuana. Our econometric analysis shows that awareness of the legislation has a positive correlation with the use of the substance. Worryingly, decriminalization positively correlates with the likelihood of first time and general use for youths. There is also some evidence that the legislation results in a substitution away from alcohol towards marijuana consumption for youths. From a policy perspective, a marijuana monitoring system can be implemented to follow the consumption patterns of youths. This should involve establishing school-level programmes that monitor students, and where potential drug users are identified, school officials should intervene to curb students’ drug appetite before an escalated use of marijuana

How do hurricanes impact scholastic achievement? A Caribbean perspective

ADInternational audienceThis study examines whether hurricanes have any impact on performance in high school standardized examinations. The analysis uses a panel of thirteen Caribbean countries and over 800 schools for the