Power-law population heterogeneity governs epidemic waves

We generalize the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model for epidemics to take into account generic effects of heterogeneity in the degree of susceptibility to infection in the population. We introduce a single new parameter corresponding to a power-law exponent of the susceptibility distribution at small susceptibilities. We find that for this class of distributions the gamma distribution is the attractor of the dynamics. This allows us to identify generic effects of population heterogeneity in a model as simple as the original SIR model which is contained as a limiting case. Because of this simplicity, numerical solutions can be generated easily and key properties of the epidemic wave can still be obtained exactly. In particular, we present exact expressions for the herd immunity level, the final size of the epidemic, as well as for the shape of the wave and for observables that can be quantified during an epidemic. In strongly heterogeneous populations, the herd immunity level can be much lower than in models with homogeneous populations as commonly used for example to discuss effects of mitigation. Using our model to analyze data for the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Germany shows that the reported time course is consistent with several scenarios characterized by different levels of immunity. These scenarios differ in population heterogeneity and in the time course of the infection rate, for example due to mitigation efforts or seasonality. Our analysis reveals that quantifying the effects of mitigation requires knowledge on the degree of heterogeneity in the population. Our work shows that key effects of population heterogeneity can be captured without increasing the complexity of the model. We show that information about population heterogeneity will be key to understand how far an epidemic has progressed and what can be expected for its future course

Translational nucleosome positioning: A computational study

Biological and Soft Matter Physic

Development of real-time NASBA assays with molecular beacon detection to quantify mRNA coding for HHV-8 lytic and latent genes

BACKGROUND: Human herpesvirus-8 (HHV-8) is linked to the pathogenesis of Kaposi's sarcoma (KS), and the HHV-8 DNA load in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) is associated with the clinical stage of KS. To examine the expression of HHV-8 in PBMC, four HHV-8 mRNA specific NASBA assays were developed METHODS: We have developed four quantitative nucleic acid sequence-based amplification assays (NASBA-QT) specifically to detect mRNA coding for ORF 73 (latency-associated nuclear antigen, LANA), vGCR (a membrane receptor), vBcl-2 (a viral inhibitor of apoptosis) and vIL-6 (a viral growth factor). The NASBA technique amplifies nucleic acids without thermocycling and mRNA can be amplified in a dsDNA background. A molecular beacon is used during amplification to enable real-time detection of the product. The assays were tested on PBMC samples of two AIDS-KS patients from the Amsterdam Cohort. RESULTS: For all four assays, the limit of detection (LOD) of 50 molecules and the limit of quantification (LOQ) of 100 molecules were determined using in vitro transcribed RNA. The linear dynamic range was 50 to 10(7) molecules of HHV-8 mRNA. We found HHV-8 mRNA expression in 9 out of the 10 tested samples. CONCLUSION: These real-time NASBA assays with beacon detection provide tools for further study of HHV-8 expression in patient material

Kaposi's Sarcoma Associated Herpes Virus (KSHV) Induced COX-2: A Key Factor in Latency, Inflammation, Angiogenesis, Cell Survival and Invasion

Kaposi's sarcoma (KS), an enigmatic endothelial cell vascular neoplasm, is characterized by the proliferation of spindle shaped endothelial cells, inflammatory cytokines (ICs), growth factors (GFs) and angiogenic factors. KSHV is etiologically linked to KS and expresses its latent genes in KS lesion endothelial cells. Primary infection of human micro vascular endothelial cells (HMVEC-d) results in the establishment of latent infection and reprogramming of host genes, and cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) is one of the highly up-regulated genes. Our previous study suggested a role for COX-2 in the establishment and maintenance of KSHV latency. Here, we examined the role of COX-2 in the induction of ICs, GFs, angiogenesis and invasive events occurring during KSHV de novo infection of endothelial cells. A significant amount of COX-2 was detected in KS tissue sections. Telomerase-immortalized human umbilical vein endothelial cells supporting KSHV stable latency (TIVE-LTC) expressed elevated levels of functional COX-2 and microsomal PGE2 synthase (m-PGES), and secreted the predominant eicosanoid inflammatory metabolite PGE2. Infected HMVEC-d and TIVE-LTC cells secreted a variety of ICs, GFs, angiogenic factors and matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs), which were significantly abrogated by COX-2 inhibition either by chemical inhibitors or by siRNA. The ability of these factors to induce tube formation of uninfected endothelial cells was also inhibited. PGE2, secreted early during KSHV infection, profoundly increased the adhesion of uninfected endothelial cells to fibronectin by activating the small G protein Rac1. COX-2 inhibition considerably reduced KSHV latent ORF73 gene expression and survival of TIVE-LTC cells. Collectively, these studies underscore the pivotal role of KSHV induced COX-2/PGE2 in creating KS lesion like microenvironment during de novo infection. Since COX-2 plays multiple roles in KSHV latent gene expression, which themselves are powerful mediators of cytokine induction, anti-apoptosis, cell survival and viral genome maintainence, effective inhibition of COX-2 via well-characterized clinically approved COX-2 inhibitors could potentially be used in treatment to control latent KSHV infection and ameliorate KS

Translational nucleosome positioning: A computational study

About three-quarters of eukaryotic DNA is wrapped into nucleosomes; DNA spools with a protein core. The affinity of a given DNA stretch to be incorporated into a nucleosome is known to depend on the base-pair sequence-dependent geometry and elasticity of the DNA double helix. This causes the rotational and translational positioning of nucleosomes. In this study we ask the question whether the latter can be predicted by a simple coarse-grained DNA model with sequence-dependent elasticity, the rigid base-pair model. Whereas this model is known to be rather robust in predicting rotational nucleosome positioning, we show that the translational positioning is a rather subtle effect that is dominated by the guanine-cytosine content dependence of entropy rather than energy. A correct qualitative prediction within the rigid base-pair framework can only be achieved by assuming that DNA elasticity effectively changes on complexation into the nucleosome complex. With that extra assumption we arrive at a model which gives an excellent quantitative agreement to experimental in vitro nucleosome maps, under the additional assumption that nucleosomes equilibrate their positions only locally

HUMAN INTERLEUKIN 6 IS IN VIVO AN AUTOCRINE GROWTH FACTOR FOR HUMAN HERPES VIRUS 8-INFECTED MALIGNANT B LYMPHOCYTES

Human interleukin-6 (hIL-6) acts as a growth factor in several human B lymphoid cancers. As human herpesvirus-8 (HHV-8) encodes for a viral IL-6 (vIL-6), the viral cytokine may be responsible for several manifestations of HHV-8-related disorders. Using an anti-hIL-6 mAb (B-E8) which does not recognize vIL-6, we investigated the involvement of the human cytokine in the proliferation of HHV-8-positive primary effusion lymphoma (PEL) cells. In vitro, 5/5 PEL cell lines produced hIL-6 (4 to 1,200 pg/ml). The EBV- HHV-8+ cell line (BCBL-1) was adapted to grow in SCID mice. hIL-6 was detected in the serum of mice with grafts, as well as human soluble CD138 (sCD138) and human IL-10 (hIL-10). The serum level of these mediators increased with tumor progression. The effect of treatment with the B-E8 mAb on the tumor progression and survival was evaluated. This treatment significantly slowed down the tumor development: on day 54, there were more mice with low levels of sCD138 and hIL-10 in the treated group than in controls (p = 0.03 and 0.02, respectively); treatment also delayed death (median date of death was day 65 for control mice and day 84 for anti-hIL-6 mAb-treated mice; p < 0.02). Thus, hIL-6 is expressed in addition to vIL-6 in HHV-8-positive malignant B lymphocytes, and the viral cytokine does not totally substitute for human IL-6 in promoting tumor progression