Cost-effectiveness of public health strategies for COVID-19 epidemic control in South Africa: a microsimulation modelling study

Background: Health-care resource constraints in low-income and middle-income countries necessitate the identification of cost-effective public health interventions to address COVID-19. We aimed to develop a dynamic COVID-19 microsimulation model to assess clinical and economic outcomes and cost-effectiveness of epidemic control strategies in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. Methods: We compared different combinations of five public health interventions: health-care testing alone, where diagnostic testing is done only for individuals presenting to health-care centres; contact tracing in households of cases; isolation centres, for cases not requiring hospital admission; mass symptom screening and molecular testing for symptomatic individuals by community health-care workers; and quarantine centres, for household contacts who test negative. We calibrated infection transmission rates to match effective reproduction number (Re) estimates reported in South Africa. We assessed two main epidemic scenarios for a period of 360 days, with an Re of 1·5 and 1·2. Strategies with incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of less than US$3250 per year of life saved were considered cost-effective. We also did sensitivity analyses by varying key parameters (Re values, molecular testing sensitivity, and efficacies and costs of interventions) to determine the effect on clinical and cost projections. Findings: When Re was 1·5, health-care testing alone resulted in the highest number of COVID-19 deaths during the 360-day period. Compared with health-care testing alone, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, mass symptom screening, and use of quarantine centres reduced mortality by 94$340 per year of life saved). In settings where quarantine centres were not feasible, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, and mass symptom screening was cost-effective compared with health-care testing alone (ICER $590 per year of life saved). When Re was 1·2, health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, and use of quarantine centres was the least costly strategy, and no other strategies were cost-effective. In sensitivity analyses, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, mass symptom screening, and use of quarantine centres was generally cost-effective, with the exception of scenarios in which Re was 2·6 and when efficacies of isolation centres and quarantine centres for transmission reduction were reduced. Interpretation: In South Africa, strategies involving household contact tracing, isolation, mass symptom screening, and quarantining household contacts who test negative would substantially reduce COVID-19 mortality and would be cost-effective. The optimal combination of interventions depends on epidemic growth characteristics and practical implementation considerations

Cost-effectiveness of public health strategies for COVID-19 epidemic control in South Africa

Background Healthcare resource constraints in low and middle-income countries necessitate selection of cost-effective public health interventions to address COVID-19. Methods We developed a dynamic COVID-19 microsimulation model to evaluate clinical and economic outcomes and cost-effectiveness of epidemic control strategies in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Interventions assessed were Healthcare Testing (HT), where diagnostic testing is performed only for those presenting to healthcare centres; Contact Tracing (CT) in households of cases; Isolation Centres (IC), for cases not requiring hospitalisation; community health worker-led Mass Symptom Screening and diagnostic testing for symptomatic individuals (MS); and Quarantine Centres (QC), for contacts who test negative. Given uncertainties about epidemic dynamics in South Africa, we evaluated two main epidemic scenarios over 360 days, with effective reproduction numbers (R e ) of 1.5 and 1.2. We compared HT, HT+CT, HT+CT+IC, HT+CT+IC+MS, HT+CT+IC+QC, and HT+CT+IC+MS+QC, considering strategies with incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) <US$1,290/year-of-life saved (YLS) to be cost-effective. Findings With R e 1.5, HT resulted in the most COVID-19 deaths and lowest costs over 360 days. Compared with HT, HT+CT+IC+MS reduced mortality by 76$350/YLS). HT+CT+IC+MS+QC provided the greatest reduction in mortality, but increased costs by 95% compared with HT+CT+IC+MS and was not cost-effective (ICER $8,000/YLS). With R e 1.2, HT+CT+IC+MS was the least costly strategy, and HT+CT+IC+MS+QC was not cost-effective (ICER$294,320/YLS). Interpretation In South Africa, a strategy of household contact tracing, isolation, and mass symptom screening would substantially reduce COVID-19 mortality and be cost-effective. Adding quarantine centres for COVID-19 contacts is not cost-effective

Acute epiglottitis as the initial presentation of pediatric Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

We report a case of a 5-year old girl, who initially presented with acute epiglottitis, sepsis and multi-organ failure. She was subsequently diagnosed as having Systemic Lupus Erythematosus. To the best of our knowledge, this article describes the first case of Haemophilus influenzae type f epiglottitis as the initial presentation of SLE in childhood

Proteome and Membrane Fatty Acid Analyses on Oligotropha carboxidovorans OM5 Grown under Chemolithoautotrophic and Heterotrophic Conditions

Oligotropha carboxidovorans OM5 T. (DSM 1227, ATCC 49405) is a chemolithoautotrophic bacterium able to utilize CO and H2 to derive energy for fixation of CO2. Thus, it is capable of growth using syngas, which is a mixture of varying amounts of CO and H2 generated by organic waste gasification. O. carboxidovorans is capable also of heterotrophic growth in standard bacteriologic media. Here we characterize how the O. carboxidovorans proteome adapts to different lifestyles of chemolithoautotrophy and heterotrophy. Fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) analysis of O. carboxidovorans grown with acetate or with syngas showed that the bacterium changes membrane fatty acid composition. Quantitative shotgun proteomic analysis of O. carboxidovorans grown in the presence of acetate and syngas showed production of proteins encoded on the megaplasmid for assimilating CO and H2 as well as proteins encoded on the chromosome that might have contributed to fatty acid and acetate metabolism. We found that adaptation to chemolithoautotrophic growth involved adaptations in cell envelope, oxidative homeostasis, and metabolic pathways such as glyoxylate shunt and amino acid/cofactor biosynthetic enzymes

Selection of Suitable Reference Genes for RT-qPCR Analyses in Cyanobacteria

Cyanobacteria are a group of photosynthetic prokaryotes that have a diverse morphology, minimal nutritional requirements and metabolic plasticity that has made them attractive organisms to use in biotechnological applications. The use of these organisms as cell factories requires the knowledge of their physiology and metabolism at a systems level. For the quantification of gene transcripts real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) is the standard technique. However, to obtain reliable RT-qPCR results the use and validation of reference genes is mandatory. Towards this goal we have selected and analyzed twelve candidate reference genes from three morphologically distinct cyanobacteria grown under routinely used laboratory conditions. The six genes exhibiting less variation in each organism were evaluated in terms of their expression stability using geNorm, NormFinder and BestKeeper. In addition, the minimum number of reference genes required for normalization was determined. Based on the three algorithms, we provide a list of genes for cyanobacterial RT-qPCR data normalization. To our knowledge, this is the first work on the validation of reference genes for cyanobacteria constituting a valuable starting point for future works

Universal Primers Used for Species Identification of Foodstuff of Animal Origin: Effects of Oligonucleotide Tails on PCR Amplification and Sequencing Performance

M13 universal non-homologous oligonucleotide tails incorporated into universal primers have been shown to improve amplification and sequencing performance. However, a few protocols use these tails in the field of food inspection. In this study, two types of M13 tails (by Steffens and Messing) were selected to assess their benefits using universal cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) and 16S ribosomal RNA gene (16SrRNA) primers in standard procedures. The primer characteristics were tested in silico. Then, using 20 DNA samples of edible species (birds, fishes, and mammals), their performance during PCR amplification (band recovery and intensity) and sequencing (sequence recovery, length, and Phred score) was assessed and compared. While 16SrRNA tailed and non-tailed primers performed similarly, differences were found for COI primers. Messing’s tails negatively affected the reaction outputs, while Steffens’ tails significantly improved the band intensity and the length of the final contigs based on the individual bidirectional read sequence. This different performance could be related to a destabilization effect of certain tails on primers with unfavorable mismatches on the annealing region. Even though our results cannot be generalized because the tail performances are strictly dependent on laboratory conditions, they show that appropriate tails can improve the overall throughput of the analysis, supporting food traceabilit

Phylogeography of Ostreopsis along West Pacific Coast, with Special Reference to a Novel Clade from Japan

BACKGROUND: A dinoflagellate genus Ostreopsis is known as a potential producer of Palytoxin derivatives. Palytoxin is the most potent non-proteinaceous compound reported so far. There has been a growing number of reports on palytoxin-like poisonings in southern areas of Japan; however, the distribution of Ostreopsis has not been investigated so far. Morphological plasticity of Ostreopsis makes reliable microscopic identification difficult so the employment of molecular tools was desirable. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDING: In total 223 clones were examined from samples mainly collected from southern areas of Japan. The D8-D10 region of the nuclear large subunit rDNA (D8-D10) was selected as a genetic marker and phylogenetic analyses were conducted. Although most of the clones were unable to be identified, there potentially 8 putative species established during this study. Among them, Ostreopsis sp. 1-5 did not belong to any known clade, and each of them formed its own clade. The dominant species was Ostreopsis sp. 1, which accounted for more than half of the clones and which was highly toxic and only distributed along the Japanese coast. Comparisons between the D8-D10 and the Internal Transcribed Spacer (ITS) region of the nuclear rDNA, which has widely been used for phylogenetic/phylogeographic studies in Ostreopsis, revealed that the D8-D10 was less variable than the ITS, making consistent and reliable phylogenetic reconstruction possible. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study unveiled a surprisingly diverse and widespread distribution of Japanese Ostreopsis. Further study will be required to better understand the phylogeography of the genus. Our results posed the urgent need for the development of the early detection/warning systems for Ostreopsis, particularly for the widely distributed and strongly toxic Ostreopsis sp. 1. The D8-D10 marker will be suitable for these purposes

Towards accurate and precise T1 and extracellular volume mapping in the myocardium: a guide to current pitfalls and their solutions

Mapping of the longitudinal relaxation time (T1) and extracellular volume (ECV) offers a means of identifying pathological changes in myocardial tissue, including diffuse changes that may be invisible to existing T1-weighted methods. This technique has recently shown strong clinical utility for pathologies such as Anderson- Fabry disease and amyloidosis and has generated clinical interest as a possible means of detecting small changes in diffuse fibrosis; however, scatter in T1 and ECV estimates offers challenges for detecting these changes, and bias limits comparisons between sites and vendors. There are several technical and physiological pitfalls that influence the accuracy (bias) and precision (repeatability) of T1 and ECV mapping methods. The goal of this review is to describe the most significant of these, and detail current solutions, in order to aid scientists and clinicians to maximise the utility of T1 mapping in their clinical or research setting. A detailed summary of technical and physiological factors, issues relating to contrast agents, and specific disease-related issues is provided, along with some considerations on the future directions of the field. Towards accurate and precise T1 and extracellular volume mapping in the myocardium: a guide to current pitfalls and their solutions. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/317548806_Towards_accurate_and_precise_T1_and_extracellular_volume_mapping_in_the_myocardium_a_guide_to_current_pitfalls_and_their_solutions [accessed Jun 13, 2017]