Testing for Smooth Transition Nonlinearity in Adjustments of Cointegrating Systems

This paper studies testing for the presence of smooth transition nonlinearity in adjustment parameters of the vector error correction model. We specify the generalized model with multiple cointegrating vectors and different transition functions across equations. Given that the nonlinear model is highly complex, this paper proposes an optimal LM test based only on estimation of the linear model. The null asymptotic distribution is derived using empirical process theory and since the transition parameters of the model cannot be identified under the null hypothesis bootstrap procedures are used to approximate the limit. Monte Carlo simulations indicate a good performance of the test.Nonlinearity ; Cointegration ; Empirical process theory ; Bootstrap

Determinants of the Dinar-Euro Nominal Exchange Rate

This paper studies drivers of daily dynamics of the nominal dinar-euro exchange rate from September 2006 to June 2010. Using a novel semiparametric approach we are able to incorporate the evidence of nonlinearities under very weak assumptions on the underlying data generating process. We identify several factors influencing daily exchange rate returns whose importance varies over time. In the period preceeding the financial crisis, information in past returns, changes in households’ foreign currency savings and banks' net purchases of foreign currency are the most significant factors. From September 2008 onwards other factors related to changes in country's risk and the information processing in the market gain importance. NBS interventions are found to be effective with a time delay.Foreign exchange market, Partially linear model, Kernel estimation

Testing for smooth transition nonlinearity in adjustments of cointegrating systems

This paper studies testing for the presence of smooth transition nonlinearity in adjustment parameters of the vector error correction model. We specify the generalized model with multiple cointegrating vectors and different transition functions across equations. Given that the nonlinear model is highly complex, this paper proposes an optimal LM test based only on estimation of the linear model. The null asymptotic distribution is derived using empirical process theory and since the transition parameters of the model cannot be identified under the null hypothesis bootstrap procedures are used to approximate the limit. Monte Carlo simulations indicate a good performance of the test

How the Subprime Crisis Went Global: Evidence from Bank Credit Default Swap Spreads

How did the Subprime Crisis, a problem in a small corner of U.S. financial markets, affect the entire global banking system? To shed light on this question we use principal components analysis to identify common factors in the movement of banks' credit default swap spreads. We find that fortunes of international banks rise and fall together even in normal times along with short-term global economic prospects. But the importance of common factors rose steadily to exceptional levels from the outbreak of the Subprime Crisis to past the rescue of Bear Stearns, reflecting a diffuse sense that funding and credit risk was increasing. Following the failure of Lehman Brothers, the interdependencies briefly increased to a new high, before they fell back to the pre-Lehman elevated levels – but now they more clearly reflected heightened funding and counterparty risk. After Lehman's failure, the prospect of global recession became imminent, auguring the further deterioration of banks' loan portfolios. At this point the entire global financial system had become infected.

Relationship between GLOBE organizational culture dimensions, job satisfaction and leader-member exchange in Serbian organizations

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationships between GLOBE organizational culture dimensions, facets of job satisfaction and the leadermember exchange relation in Serbian organizations. One of the most important aspects of this study was the demonstration of the utility of applying more general cultural theory to the study of organizational cultures. The sample consists of 256 middle managers in Serbian organizations. The results obtained proved that organizational culture dimensions are significant predictors of all facets of job satisfaction and that relations between some organizational culture dimensions and facets of job satisfaction are moderated by the leader-member exchange (LMX) variable. Our results may be of interest for human resource managers in Serbian organizations as well as for foreign investors.Das Ziel dieses Artikels ist es, die Beziehungen zwischen den GLOBE Kultur- Dimensionen, der Arbeitszufriedenheit und dem Führer-Mitarbeiter-Verhältnis in serbischen Organisationen zu untersuchen. Einer der wichtigsten Aspekte dieser Studie war die Demonstration der Nützlichkeit der Anwendung allgemeiner Kulturtheorien bei der Untersuchung von Unternehmenskulturen. Die Stichprobe besteht aus 256 mittleren Führungskräften aus serbischen Organisationen. Die erzielten Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Organisationskultur- Dimensionen signifikante Prädiktoren für alle Facetten der Arbeitszufriedenheit sind. Zudem werden die Beziehungen zwischen den Organisationskultur- Dimensionen und der Arbeitszufriedenheit durch die Führer-Mitarbeiter- Verhältnis-Variable moderiert. Unsere Ergebnisse können für Personalmanager in serbischen Organisationen von Interesse sein, ebenso wie für ausländische Investoren

Techno-economic justification of reparatory hard facing of various working parts of mechanical systems

Research in the field of hard-facing of various parts mechanical systems' are being done for technical and techno-economic reasons. The reasons for introducing the new reparation technologies by hard-facing are numerous: three quarters of all the mechanical parts of engineering could be regenerated or manufactured by hard facing; the working life of the repaired part reaches or even exceeds the working life of a new part, while the working life of the hard faced manufactured part surpasses several times the working life of the new part manufactured by some other technology. Large number of damaged and, frequently even broken parts, cause terminations of the working process. Thus, due to difficulties in procurement of new, mainly imported parts, the alternative solution must be applied. It is sown that the a proper choice of the hard-facing technology is related to the complex procedure of checking the quality of the hard faced layer, what indicates that the reparatory operations could be performed only in specialized regeneration workshops, which are furnished with adequate equipment and corresponding expert and skilled staff. The estimated net benefit for the analyzed parts is exceptionally high, regardless of the fact that the additional external and internal effects have not been quantified.Author's versio

REPARATORY HARD FACING OF THE ROTATIONAL DEVICE KNIVES FOR TERRAIN LEVELLING

The aim of this work was to study the possibilities for expanding the working life of certain parts of the civil engineering mechansation. This is why the mechanism of the impact abrasive wear of parts that wear the most, was analysed first, especially knives of the rotational device for terrain levelling. Then the possibility for their reparation was considered. Dominant types of wears, regarding these parts occur because of abrasion, adhesion and impact, depending on structure and composition of the terrain. Damages on knives in conditions of intensive, abrasive wear, while being in contact with knives working surface with materials of mineral origin, are regarded as a separate subject. The cutting edges of knives were regenerated by hard facing, and then they were sharpened by grinding to the similar shape and size as the new knives. After that, onto the working machine rotors were mounted alternatively new and repaired knives and their wear was monitored under the same working conditions. It was established that the endurance of the hard faced knives is better than that of the non hard faced ones, which can be explained by the more favourable microstructure of the hard faced layer that better corresponds to the given working conditions.Publishe

Adherence to the 4S-AF Scheme in the Balkan region:insights from the BALKAN-AF survey

BackgroundThe 4S-AF scheme includes stroke risk, symptoms, severity of burden, and substrate severity domain.AimWe aimed to assess the adherence to the 4S-AF scheme in patients classified according to stroke risk in post hoc analysis of the BALKAN-AF dataset.MethodsA 14-week prospective enrolment of consecutive patients with electrocardiographically documented atrial fibrillation (AF) was performed in seven Balkan countries from 2014 to 2015.ResultsLow stroke risk (CHA2DS2-VASc score, 0 in males or 1 in females) was present in 162 (6.0%) patients. 2 099 (77.4%) patients had CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥3 in females or ≥2 in males (high stroke risk), and 613 (22.6%) had CHA2DS2-VASc score ConclusionsOAC overuse was observed in patients with low stroke risk, whilst OAC underuse was evident in those with high risk of stroke. The percentage of highly symptomatic patients with high risk of stroke who were offered a rhythm control strategy was low

Comparison of exercise, dobutamine-atropine and dipyridamole-atropine stress echocardiography in detecting coronary artery disease

BACKGROUND: Dipyridamole and dobutamine stress echocardiography testing are most widely utilized, but their sensitivity remained suboptimal in comparison to routine exercise stress echocardiography. The aim of our study is to compare, head-to-head, exercise, dobutamine and dipyridamole stress echocardiography tests, performed with state-of-the-art protocols in a large scale prospective group of patients. METHODS: Dipyridamole-atropine (Dipatro: 0.84 mg/kg over 10 min i.v. dipyridamole with addition of up to 1 mg of atropine), dobutamine-atropine (Dobatro: up to 40 mcg/kg/min i.v. dobutamine with addition of up to 1 mg of atropine) and exercise (Ex, Bruce) were performed in 166 pts. Of them, 117 pts without resting wall motion abnormalities were enrolled in study (91 male; mean age 54 ± 10 years; previous non-transmural myocardial infarction in 32 pts, angina pectoris in 69 pts and atypical chest pain in 16 pts). Tests were performed in random sequence, in 3 different days, within 5 day period under identical therapy. All patients underwent coronary angiography. RESULTS: Significant coronary artery disease (CAD; ≥50% diameter stenosis) was present in 69 pts (57 pts 1-vessel CAD, 12 multivessel CAD) and absent in 48 pts. Sensitivity (Sn) was 96%, 93% and 90%, whereas specificity (Sp) was 92%, 92% and 87% for Dobatro, Dipatro and Ex, respectively (p = ns). Concomitant beta blocker therapy did not influence peak rate-pressure product and Sn of Dobatro and Dipatro (p = ns). CONCLUSION: When state-of-the-art protocols are used, dipyridamole and dobutamine stress echocardiography have comparable and high diagnostic accuracy, similar to maximal post-exercise treadmill stress echocardiography