The impact of alternative delivery strategies for novel tuberculosis vaccines in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study

BackgroundTuberculosis is a leading infectious cause of death worldwide. Novel vaccines will be required to reach global targets and reverse setbacks resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. We estimated the impact of novel tuberculosis vaccines in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) in several delivery scenarios.MethodsWe calibrated a tuberculosis model to 105 LMICs (accounting for 93% of global incidence). Vaccine scenarios were implemented as the base-case (routine vaccination of those aged 9 years and one-off vaccination for those aged 10 years and older, with country-specific introduction between 2028 and 2047, and 5-year scale-up to target coverage); accelerated scale-up similar to the base-case, but with all countries introducing vaccines in 2025, with instant scale-up; and routine-only (similar to the base-case, but including routine vaccination only). Vaccines were assumed to protect against disease for 10 years, with 50% efficacy.FindingsThe base-case scenario would prevent 44·0 million (95% uncertainty range 37·2–51·6) tuberculosis cases and 5·0 million (4·6–5·4) tuberculosis deaths before 2050, compared with equivalent estimates of cases and deaths that would be predicted to occur before 2050 with no new vaccine introduction (the baseline scenario). The accelerated scale-up scenario would prevent 65·5 million (55·6–76·0) cases and 7·9 million (7·3–8·5) deaths before 2050, relative to baseline. The routine-only scenario would prevent 8·8 million (95% uncertainty range 7·6–10·1) cases and 1·1 million (0·9–1·2) deaths before 2050, relative to baseline.InterpretationOur results suggest novel tuberculosis vaccines could have substantial impact, which will vary depending on delivery strategy. Including a one-off vaccination campaign will be crucial for rapid impact. Accelerated introduction—at a pace similar to that seen for COVID-19 vaccines—would increase the number of lives saved before 2050 by around 60%. Investment is required to support vaccine development, manufacturing, prompt introduction, and scale-up

The cost and cost-effectiveness of novel tuberculosis vaccines in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is preventable and curable but eliminating it has proven challenging. Safe and effective TB vaccines that can rapidly reduce disease burden are essential for achieving TB elimination. We assessed future costs, cost-savings, and cost-effectiveness of introducing novel TB vaccines in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) for a range of product characteristics and delivery strategies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a system of epidemiological and economic models, calibrated to demographic, epidemiological, and health service data in 105 LMICs. For each country, we assessed the likely future course of TB-related outcomes under several vaccine introduction scenarios, compared to a "no-new-vaccine" counterfactual. Vaccine scenarios considered 2 vaccine product profiles (1 targeted at infants, 1 at adolescents/adults), both assumed to prevent progression to active TB. Key economic inputs were derived from the Global Health Cost Consortium, World Health Organization (WHO) patient cost surveys, and the published literature. We estimated the incremental impact of vaccine introduction for a range of health and economic outcomes. In the base-case, we assumed a vaccine price of $4.60 and used a 1× per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) cost-effectiveness threshold (both varied in sensitivity analyses). Vaccine introduction was estimated to require substantial near-term resources, offset by future cost-savings from averted TB burden. From a health system perspective, adolescent/adult vaccination was cost-effective in 64 of 105 LMICs. From a societal perspective (including productivity gains and averted patient costs), adolescent/adult vaccination was projected to be cost-effective in 73 of 105 LMICs and cost-saving in 58 of 105 LMICs, including 96$283 to 474 billion in economic benefits by 2050. Limited data availability required assumptions and extrapolations that may omit important country-level heterogeneity in epidemiology and costs. CONCLUSIONS: TB vaccination would be highly impactful and cost-effective in most LMICs. Further efforts are needed for future development, adoption, and implementation of novel TB vaccines

Eosinophils and IL-4 Support Nematode Growth Coincident with an Innate Response to Tissue Injury.

It has become increasingly clear that the functions of eosinophils extend beyond host defense and allergy to metabolism and tissue regeneration. These influences have strong potential to be relevant in worm infections in which eosinophils are prominent and parasites rely on the host for nutrients to support growth or reproduction. The aim of this study was to investigate the mechanism underlying the observation that eosinophils promote growth of Trichinella spiralis larvae in skeletal muscle. Our results indicate that IL-4 and eosinophils are necessary for normal larval growth and that eosinophils from IL-4 competent mice are sufficient to support growth. The eosinophil-mediated effect operates in the absence of adaptive immunity. Following invasion by newborn larvae, host gene expression in skeletal muscle was compatible with a regenerative response and a shift in the source of energy in infected tissue. The presence of eosinophils suppressed local inflammation while also influencing nutrient homeostasis in muscle. Redistribution of glucose transporter 4 (GLUT4) and phosphorylation of Akt were observed in nurse cells, consistent with enhancement of glucose uptake and glycogen storage by larvae that is known to occur. The data are consistent with a mechanism in which eosinophils promote larval growth by an IL-4 dependent mechanism that limits local interferon-driven responses that otherwise alter nutrient metabolism in infected muscle. Our findings document a novel interaction between parasite and host in which worms have evolved a strategy to co-opt an innate host cell response in a way that facilitates their growth

The potential impact of novel tuberculosis vaccines on health equity and financial protection in low-income and middle-income countries.

INTRODUCTION: One in two patients developing tuberculosis (TB) in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) faces catastrophic household costs. We assessed the potential financial risk protection from introducing novel TB vaccines, and how health and economic benefits would be distributed across income quintiles. METHODS: We modelled the impact of introducing TB vaccines meeting the World Health Organization preferred product characteristics in 105 LMICs. For each country, we assessed the distribution of health gains, patient costs and household financial vulnerability following introduction of an infant vaccine and separately for an adolescent/adult vaccine, compared with a 'no-new-vaccine' counterfactual. Patient-incurred direct and indirect costs of TB disease exceeding 20% of annual household income were defined as catastrophic. RESULTS: Over 2028-2050, the health gains resulting from vaccine introduction were greatest in lower income quintiles, with the poorest 2 quintiles in each country accounting for 56% of total LMIC TB cases averted. Over this period, the infant vaccine was estimated to avert US$5.9 (95$5.3-6.5) billion in patient-incurred total costs, and the adolescent/adult vaccine was estimated to avert US$38.9 (US$36.6-41.5) billion. Additionally, 3.7 (3.3-4.1) million fewer households were projected to face catastrophic costs with the infant vaccine and 22.9 (21.4-24.5) million with the adolescent/adult vaccine, with 66% of gains accruing in the poorest 2 income quintiles. CONCLUSION: Under a range of assumptions, introducing novel TB vaccines would reduce income-based inequalities in the health and household economic outcomes of TB in LMICs

The potential impact of novel tuberculosis vaccine introduction on economic growth in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study.

BackgroundMost individuals developing tuberculosis (TB) are working age adults living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The resulting disability and death impact economic productivity and burden health systems. New TB vaccine products may reduce this burden. In this study, we estimated the impact of introducing novel TB vaccines on gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 105 LMICs.Methods and findingsWe adapted an existing macroeconomic model to simulate country-level GDP trends between 2020 and 2080, comparing scenarios for introduction of hypothetical infant and adolescent/adult vaccines to a no-new-vaccine counterfactual. We parameterized each scenario using estimates of TB-related mortality, morbidity, and healthcare spending from linked epidemiological and costing models. We assumed vaccines would be introduced between 2028 and 2047 and estimated incremental changes in GDP within each country from introduction to 2080, in 2020 US dollars. We tested the robustness of results to alternative analytic specifications. Both vaccine scenarios produced greater cumulative GDP in the modeled countries over the study period, equivalent to $1.6 (95$0.8, 3.0) trillion for the adolescent/adult vaccine and $0.2 ($0.1, 0.4) trillion for the infant vaccine. These GDP gains were substantially lagged relative to the time of vaccine introduction, particularly for the infant vaccine. GDP gains resulting from vaccine introduction were concentrated in countries with higher current TB incidence and earlier vaccine introduction. Results were sensitive to secular trends in GDP growth but relatively robust to other analytic assumptions. Uncertain projections of GDP could alter these projections and affect the conclusions drawn by this analysis.ConclusionsUnder a range of assumptions, introducing novel TB vaccines would increase economic growth in LMICs

The potential impact of novel tuberculosis vaccine introduction on economic growth in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Most individuals developing tuberculosis (TB) are working age adults living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The resulting disability and death impact economic productivity and burden health systems. New TB vaccine products may reduce this burden. In this study, we estimated the impact of introducing novel TB vaccines on gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 105 LMICs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We adapted an existing macroeconomic model to simulate country-level GDP trends between 2020 and 2080, comparing scenarios for introduction of hypothetical infant and adolescent/adult vaccines to a no-new-vaccine counterfactual. We parameterized each scenario using estimates of TB-related mortality, morbidity, and healthcare spending from linked epidemiological and costing models. We assumed vaccines would be introduced between 2028 and 2047 and estimated incremental changes in GDP within each country from introduction to 2080, in 2020 US dollars. We tested the robustness of results to alternative analytic specifications. Both vaccine scenarios produced greater cumulative GDP in the modeled countries over the study period, equivalent to $1.6 (95$0.8, 3.0) trillion for the adolescent/adult vaccine and $0.2 ($0.1, 0.4) trillion for the infant vaccine. These GDP gains were substantially lagged relative to the time of vaccine introduction, particularly for the infant vaccine. GDP gains resulting from vaccine introduction were concentrated in countries with higher current TB incidence and earlier vaccine introduction. Results were sensitive to secular trends in GDP growth but relatively robust to other analytic assumptions. Uncertain projections of GDP could alter these projections and affect the conclusions drawn by this analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Under a range of assumptions, introducing novel TB vaccines would increase economic growth in LMICs

IL-4/STAT6 signaling pathway is essential for larval growth.

<p>Area of larvae recovered from (A)–(C), C57BL/6, STAT6^-/-, IL-4^-/- and IL-13^-/- mice injected 25,000 NBL IV, 13 days post injection. Total body larval burdens in muscles of (D) WT and STAT6^-/- and (E) WT and IL-4^-/-, 24 days post injection. (F) IL-10 detected in CLN cultures from WT and STAT6^-/- mice, 13 days post injection. (G) Number of CD4⁺IL-10⁺ cells per diaphragm of WT and IL-4^-/- mice, 13 days post injection. Each data set was collected from two experiments with similar results. Values represent mean ± SD; n = 4 mice. Significant differences were determined by Student’s <i>t</i> test. ***p < 0.0001.</p

Eosinophils promote larval growth in an innate context.

<p>(A)–(C), C57BL/6, PHIL, Rag1^-/-, PHIL/Rag1^-/- and Rag2^-/-γc^-/- mice were injected IV with 25,000 NBL. (A) Body size (area) of larvae recovered from indicated strains 13 days post injection. (B) Body size (area) of larvae recovered from Rag1^-/- and Rag2^-/-γc^-/- mice, 13 days post injection. (C) PHIL/Rag1^-/- mice received PBS or 5 × 10⁶ eosinophils from infected IL-5Tg⁺ or IL-5Tg⁺/IL-4^-/- mice every 48 h from 0–5 days post IV infection. Body size (area) of larvae, 13 days post injection. Each data set was collected from two experiments with similar results. Values represent mean ± SD; n = 3–4 mice. Significant differences were determined by Student’s <i>t</i> test or ANOVA and Tukey’s test. ***p < 0.0001.</p