Scientific knowledge and scientific uncertainty in bushfire and flood risk mitigation: literature review

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Scientific Diversity, Scientific Uncertainty and Risk Mitigation Policy and Planning (RMPP) project aims to investigate the diversity and uncertainty of bushfire and flood science, and its contribution to risk mitigation policy and planning. The project investigates how policy makers, practitioners, courts, inquiries and the community differentiate, understand and use scientific knowledge in relation to bushfire and flood risk. It uses qualitative social science methods and case studies to analyse how diverse types of knowledge are ordered and judged as salient, credible and authoritative, and the pragmatic meaning this holds for emergency management across the PPRR spectrum. This research report is the second literature review of the RMPP project and was written before any of the case studies had been completed. It synthesises approximately 250 academic sources on bushfire and flood risk science, including research on hazard modelling, prescribed burning, hydrological engineering, development planning, meteorology, climatology and evacuation planning. The report also incorporates theoretical insights from the fields of risk studies and science and technology studies (STS), as well as indicative research regarding the public understandings of science, risk communication and deliberative planning. This report outlines the key scientific practices (methods and knowledge) and scientific uncertainties in bushfire and flood risk mitigation in Australia. Scientific uncertainties are those ‘known unknowns’ and ‘unknown unknowns’ that emerge from the development and utilisation of scientific knowledge. Risk mitigation involves those processes through which agencies attempt to limit the vulnerability of assets and values to a given hazard. The focus of this report is the uncertainties encountered and managed by risk mitigation professionals in regards to these two hazards, though literature regarding natural sciences and the scientific method more generally are also included where appropriate. It is important to note that while this report excludes professional experience and local knowledge from its consideration of uncertainties and knowledge, these are also very important aspects of risk mitigation which will be addressed in the RMPP project’s case studies. Key findings of this report include: Risk and scientific knowledge are both constructed categories, indicating that attempts to understand any individual instance of risk or scientific knowledge should be understood in light of the social, political, economic, and ecological context in which they emerge. Uncertainty is a necessary element of scientific methods, and as such risk mitigation practitioners and researchers alike should seek to ‘embrace uncertainty’ (Moore et al., 2005) as part of navigating bushfire and flood risk mitigation

Linkages between research, scholarship and teaching in universities in China

Linkages between research, scholarship and teaching are a topic of contemporary interest in UK universities, driven by pressures such as traditional views of the nature and purpose of universities, reputation, student expectations of their teachers, educational enhancement through up-to-date research and scholarly input, and personal ambitions and satisfaction. The paper describes a study of these linkages at the Beijing Institute of Technology (BIT) during 2006 within the Sino-UK Higher Education Leadership Development Programme, which allows for senior academics from China and the UK to study a particular management issue to identify good practice which they can apply in their institution. The activities included a preliminary workshop in the UK, a two-week visit to BIT and a workshop in Beijing. My study was conducted through a semi-structured interview programme with a wide range of academics and administrators. It was enlightening to find that a leading Chinese university, which operates within quite different systems and cultures from the UK, nevertheless has similar issues, imperatives and problems. My overall conclusion is that there is international agreement that research and scholarly performance underpins the credibility of academic staff to teach at a university, which in turn attracts good students and research staff

CASE STUDY 3: Literature and Film - Reading Film: An Angel at My Table

A research case study within a chapter entitled, 'Literary Research and Other Media'; exploring the relationship between film adaptation, life writing and examining in particular the use of montage, with reference to Sergei Eisenstein's theories of montage and Jane Campion's film adaptation of Janet Frame's memoir, 'An Angel at My Table'

Investigation of mechanisms governing emission of odorants

The literature identifies several models that describe inter-phase mass transfer, key to the emission process. While the emission process is complex and these models may be more or less successful at predicting mass transfer rates, they identify three key variables for a system involving a liquid and an air phase in contact with it: • A concentration (or partial pressure) gradient driving force; • The fluid dynamic characteristics within the liquid and air phases, and • The chemical properties of the individual components within the system. In three applied research projects conducted prior to this study, samples collected with two well-known sampling devices resulted in very different odour emission rates. It was not possible to adequately explain the differences observed. It appeared likely, however, that the sample collection device might have artefact effects on the emission of odorants, i.e. the sampling device appeared to have altered the mass transfer process. This raised the obvious question: Where two different emission rates are reported for a single source (differing only in the selection of sampling device), and a credible explanation for the difference in emission rate cannot be provided, which emission rate is correct? This research project aimed to identify the factors that determine odour emission rates, the impact that the characteristics of a sampling device may exert on the key mass transfer variables, and ultimately, the impact of the sampling device on the emission rate itself. To meet these objectives, a series of targeted reviews, and laboratory and field investigations, were conducted. Two widely-used, representative devices were chosen to investigate the influence of various parameters on the emission process. These investigations provided insight into the odour emission process generally, and the influence of the sampling device specifically

Kiddies Matinees

Non-fiction by Nance Anne Neal

Reliable inference of exoplanet light curve parameters using deterministic and stochastic systematics models

Time-series photometry and spectroscopy of transiting exoplanets allow us to study their atmospheres. Unfortunately, the required precision to extract atmospheric information surpasses the design specifications of most general purpose instrumentation, resulting in instrumental systematics in the light curves that are typically larger than the target precision. Systematics must therefore be modelled, leaving the inference of light curve parameters conditioned on the subjective choice of models and model selection criteria. This paper aims to test the reliability of the most commonly used systematics models and model selection criteria. As we are primarily interested in recovering light curve parameters rather than the favoured systematics model, marginalisation over systematics models is introduced as a more robust alternative than simple model selection. This can incorporate uncertainties in the choice of systematics model into the error budget as well as the model parameters. Its use is demonstrated using a series of simulated transit light curves. Stochastic models, specifically Gaussian processes, are also discussed in the context of marginalisation over systematics models, and are found to reliably recover the transit parameters for a wide range of systematics functions. None of the tested model selection criteria - including the BIC - routinely recovered the correct model. This means that commonly used methods that are based on simple model selection may underestimate the uncertainties when extracting transmission and eclipse spectra from real data, and low-significance claims using such techniques should be treated with caution. In general, no systematics modelling techniques are perfect; however, marginalisation over many systematics models helps to mitigate poor model selection, and stochastic processes provide an even more flexible approach to modelling instrumental systematics.Comment: 15 pages, 2 figures, published in MNRAS, typo in footnote eq correcte

Sharing Qualitative and Qualitative Longitudinal Data in the UK: Archiving Strategies and Development

Over the past two decades significant developments have occurred in the archiving of qualitative data in the UK. The first national archive for qualitative resources, Qualidata, was established in 1994. Since that time further scientific reviews have supported the expansion of data resources for qualitative and qualitative longitudinal (QL) research in the UK and fuelled the development of a new ethos of data sharing and re-use among qualitative researchers. These have included the Timescapes Study and Archive, an initiative funded from 2007 to scale up QL research and create a specialist resource of QL data for sharing and re-use. These trends are part of a wider movement to enhance the status of research data in all their diverse forms, inculcate an ethos of data sharing, and develop infrastructure to facilitate data discovery and re-use. In this paper we trace the history of these developments and provide an overview of data policy initiatives that have set out to advance data sharing in the UK. The paper reveals a mixed infrastructure for qualitative and QL data resources in the UK, and explores the value of this, along with the implications for managing and co-ordinating resources across a complex network. The paper concludes with some suggestions for developing this mixed infrastructure to further support data sharing and re-use in the UK and beyond

CASE LAW APPROACH TO FAMILY POLICY

Public Economics,

Qualitative and Qualitative Longitudinal Resources in Europe

In April 2009 the UK Timescapes Initiative, in collaboration with the University of Bremen, organised a residential workshop to explore the nature of qualitative (Q) and qualitative longitudinal (QL) research and resources across Europe. The workshop was hosted by the Archive for Life Course Research (Archiv für Lebenslaufforschung, ALLF) at Bremen and funded by Timescapes with support from CESSDA (The Council of European Social Science Data Archives, Preparatory Phase Project). It was attended by archivists and researchers from 14 countries, including ‘transitional’ states such as Belarus and Lithuania. The broad aim of the workshop was to map existing infrastructures for qualitative and QL data archiving among the participating countries, including the extent of archiving and the ethos of data sharing and re-use in different national contexts. The group also explored strategies to develop infrastructure and to support qualitative and QL research and resources, including collaborative research across Europe and beyond