The economic impact of drag in general aviation

General aviation aircraft fuel consumption and operating costs are closely linked to drag reduction methods. Improvements in airplane drag are envisioned for new models; their effects will be in the 5 to 10% range. Major improvements in fuel consumption over existing turbofan airplanes will be the combined results of improved aerodynamics plus additional effects from advanced turbofan engine designs

Overview of external Nacelle drag and interference drag

A historical view of multi-jet engine installations is given that emphasizes integration of the powerplant and the airframe in aircraft design for improved reduction in external nacelle drag and interference drag characteristics

The Bar--Halo Interaction--I. From Fundamental Dynamics to Revised N-body Requirements

Only through resonances can non-axisymmetric features such as spiral arms and bars exert torques over large scales and change the overall structure of a near-equilibrium galaxy. We describe the resonant interaction mechanism in detail and derive explicit criteria for the particle number required to simulate these dynamical processes accurately using N-body simulations and illustrate them with numerical experiments. To do this, we perform direct numerical solution of perturbation theory and make detailed comparisons with N-body simulations. The criteria include: sufficient particle coverage in phase space near the resonance and enough particles to minimize gravitational potential fluctuations that will change the dynamics of the resonant encounter. Some of our more surprising findings are as follows. First, the Inner-Lindblad-like resonance (ILR), responsible for coupling the bar to the central halo cusp, requires almost 10^9 equal mass particles within the virial radius for a Milky-Way-like bar in an NFW profile. Second, orbits that linger near the resonance receive more angular momentum than orbits that move through the resonance quickly. Small-scale fluctuations present in state-of-the-art particle-particle simulations can knock orbits out of resonance, preventing them from lingering and, thereby, decrease the torque. The required particle numbers are sufficiently high for scenarios of interest that apparent convergence in particle number is misleading: the convergence is in the noise-dominated regime. State-of-the-art simulations are not adequate to follow all aspects of secular evolution driven by the bar-halo interaction. We present a procedure to test the requirements for individual N-body codes for the actual problem of interest. [abridged]Comment: 30 pages, 19 figures, submitted to Monthly Notices. For paper with figures at full resolution: http://www.astro.umass.edu/~weinberg/weinberg_katz_1.ps.g

The Bar-Halo Interaction - II. Secular evolution and the religion of N-body simulations

This paper explores resonance-driven secular evolution between a bar and dark-matter halo using N-body simulations. We make direct comparisons to our analytic theory (Weinberg & Katz 2005) to demonstrate the great difficulty that an N-body simulation has representing these dynamics for realistic astronomical interactions. In a dark-matter halo, the bar's angular momentum is coupled to the central density cusp (if present) by the Inner Lindblad Resonance. Owing to this angular momentum transfer and self-consistent re-equilibration, strong realistic bars WILL modify the cusp profile, lowering the central densities within about 30% of the bar radius in a few bar orbits. Past results to the contrary (Sellwood 2006, McMillan & Dehnen 2005) may be the result of weak bars or numerical artifacts. The magnitude depends on many factors and we illustrate the sensitivity of the response to the dark-matter profile, the bar shape and mass, and the galaxy's evolutionary history. For example, if the bar length is comparable to the size of a central dark-matter core, the bar may exchange angular momentum without changing its pattern speed significantly. We emphasise that this apparently simple example of secular evolution is remarkably subtle in detail and conclude that an N-body exploration of any astronomical scenario requires a deep investigation into the underlying dynamical mechanisms for that particular problem to set the necessary requirements for the simulation parameters and method (e.g. particle number and Poisson solver). Simply put, N-body simulations do not divinely reveal truth and hence their results are not infallible. They are unlikely to provide useful insight on their own, particularly for the study of even more complex secular processes such as the production of pseudo-bulges and disk heating.Comment: 23 pages, 18 figures, submitted to Monthly Notices. For paper with figures at full resolution: http://www.astro.umass.edu/~weinberg/weinberg_katz_2.ps.g

Crises in The Global Economy from Tulips to Today: Contagion and Consequences

We examine the historical record of the financial crises that have often accompanied surges of globalization in the past. The issue of contagion, the spread of financial turbulence from the crisis center to its trading partners, is confronted with historical and statistical evidence on the causes and consequences of well-known crises. Special attention is given to the gold standard period of 1880-1913, which we find useful to divide into the initial period of deflation, 1880-1896, and the following period of mild inflation, 1897-1913. We find evidence of changes in the pattern of "contagion" from core to periphery countries between the two periods, finding that apparent contagions can more readily be interpreted as responses to common shocks. Lessons for the present period can only be tentative, but the similarities in learning experiences are striking.contagion; gold standard

Learjet model 25 drag analysis

Procedures and data for estimating drag were used to calculate the drag characteristics of the Model 25 airplane. Based on cruise flight test data obtained on the Model 25, these methods generally predicted the total drag characteristics within current acceptable and reasonable engineering accuracy

A remarkably simple and accurate method for computing the Bayes Factor from a Markov chain Monte Carlo Simulation of the Posterior Distribution in high dimension

Weinberg (2012) described a constructive algorithm for computing the marginal likelihood, Z, from a Markov chain simulation of the posterior distribution. Its key point is: the choice of an integration subdomain that eliminates subvolumes with poor sampling owing to low tail-values of posterior probability. Conversely, this same idea may be used to choose the subdomain that optimizes the accuracy of Z. Here, we explore using the simulated distribution to define a small region of high posterior probability, followed by a numerical integration of the sample in the selected region using the volume tessellation algorithm described in Weinberg (2012). Even more promising is the resampling of this small region followed by a naive Monte Carlo integration. The new enhanced algorithm is computationally trivial and leads to a dramatic improvement in accuracy. For example, this application of the new algorithm to a four-component mixture with random locations in 16 dimensions yields accurate evaluation of Z with 5% errors. This enables Bayes-factor model selection for real-world problems that have been infeasible with previous methods.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures, submitted to Bayesian Analysi