Determinants of fertility in Rwanda in the context of a fertility transition: a secondary analysis of the 2010 Demographic and Health Survey

Background: Major improvements to Rwanda’s health system, infrastructure, and social programs over the last decade have led to a rapid fertility transition unique from other African countries. The total fertility rate fell from 6.1 in 2005 to 4.6 in 2010, with a 3-fold increase in contraceptive usage. Despite this rapid national decline, many women still have large numbers of children. This study investigates predictors of fertility during this fertility transition to inform policies that improve individuals’ reproductive health and guide national development. Methods: We used Poisson regression to separately model number of children born to ever married/cohabitated women (n = 8,309) and never married women (n = 1,220) age 15 to 49 based on 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey data. We used backward stepwise regression with a time offset to identify individual and household factors associated with woman’s fertility level, accounting for sampling weights, clustering, and stratification. Results: In ever married/cohabitating women, high fertility was significantly associated (p < 0.05) with the following variables: unmet need for contraception (IRR = 1.07), women’s desire for children (5+ versus 0–2 children: IRR = 1.22), woman’s number of siblings (8–20 versus 0–4: IRR = 1.03), and couples who desired different numbers of children (husband wants more: IRR = 1.04; husband wants fewer: IRR = 1.04). Low fertility in ever married/cohabitating women was associated with women’s education (higher versus no education: IRR = 0.66), household wealth (highest versus lowest quintile: IRR = 0.93), and delayed sexual debut (25+ versus 8–18 years: IRR = 0.49). In never married women, low fertility was associated with education (higher versus no education: IRR = 0.22), household wealth (highest versus lowest quintile: IRR = 0.58), delayed sexual debut (25–49 versus 8–18 years: IRR = 0.43), and having an unmet need for contraception (IRR = 0.69). Conclusions: Although the study design does not allow causal conclusions, these results suggest several strategies to further reduce Rwanda’s national fertility rate and support families to achieve their desired fertility. Strategies include policies and programs that promote delayed sexual debut via educational and economic opportunities for women, improved access to reproductive health information and services at schools and via health campaigns, and involvement of men in family planning decision making

Knowledge, attitude and practice of hygiene and sanitation in a Burundian refugee camp: implications for control of a Salmonella typhi outbreak

Introduction: A Salmonella typhi outbreak was reported in a Burundian refugee camp in Rwanda in October 2015. Transmission persisted despite increased hygiene promotion activities and hand-washing facilities instituted to prevent and control the outbreak. A knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) study was carried out to assess the effectiveness of ongoing typhoid fever preventive interventions.Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Mahama Refugee Camp of Kirehe District, Rwanda from January to February 2016. Data were obtained through administration of a structured KAP questionnaire. Descriptive, bivariate and multivariate analysis was performed using STATA software.Results: A total of 671 respondents comprising 264 (39.3%) males and 407 (60.7%) females were enrolled in the study. A comparison of hand washing practices before and after institution of prevention and control measures showed a 37% increase in the proportion of respondents who washed their hands before eating and after using the toilet (p &lt; 0.001). About 52.8% of participants reported having heard about typhoid fever, however 25.9% had received health education. Only 34.6% and 38.6% of the respondents respectively knew how typhoid fever spreads and is prevented. Most respondents (98.2%) used pit latrines for disposal of feces. Long duration of stay in the camp, age over 35 years and being unemployed were statistically associated with poor hand washing practices. Conclusion: The findings of this study underline the need for bolstering up health education and hygiene promotion activities in Mahama and other refugee camp settings

Risk factors for transmission of Salmonella Typhi in Mahama refugee camp, Rwanda: a matched case-control study

Introduction: In early October 2015, the health facility in Mahama, a refugee camp for Burundians, began to record an increase in the incidence of a disease characterized by fever, chills and abdominal pain. The investigation of the outbreak confirmed Salmonella Typhi as the cause. A casecontrol study was conducted to identify risk factors for the disease. Methods: A retrospective matched case-control study was conducted between January and February 2016. Data were obtained through a survey of matched cases and controls, based on an epidemiological case definition and environmental assessment. Odd ratios were calculated to determine the risk factors associated with typhoid fever. Results: Overall, 260 cases and 770 controls were enrolled in the study. Findings from the multivariable logistic regression identified that having a family member who had been infected with S. Typhi in the last 3 months (OR 2.7; p &lt; 0.001), poor awareness of typhoid fever (OR 1.6; p = 0.011), inconsistent hand washing after use of the latrine (OR 1.8; p = 0.003), eating food prepared at home (OR 2.8; p &lt; 0.001) or at community market (OR 11.4; p = 0.005) were risk factors for typhoid fever transmission. Environmental assessments established the local sorghum beer and yoghurt were contaminated with yeast, aerobic flora, coliforms or Staphylococcus. Conclusion: These findings highlight the need of reinforcement of hygiene promotion, food safety regulations, hygiene education for beverage and food handlers in community market and intensification of environmental interventions to break the transmission of S.Typhi in Mahama

Prevalence of tuberculosis in Rwanda: Results of the first nationwide survey in 2012 yielded important lessons for TB control

Background Rwanda conducted a national tuberculosis (TB) prevalence survey to determine the magnitude of TB in the country and determine to what extent the national surveillance system captures all TB cases. In addition we measured the patient diagnostic rate, comparing the measured TB burden data with the routine surveillance data to gain insight into how well key population groups are being detected. Methods A national representative nationwide cross-sectional survey was conducted in 73 clusters in 2012 whereby all enrolled participants (residents aged 15 years and above) were systematically screened for TB by symptoms and chest X-ray (CXR). Those with either clinical symptoms (cough of any duration) and/or CXR abnormalities suggestive of TB disease were requested to provide two sputum samples (one spot and one morning) for smear examination and solid culture. Results Of the 45,058 eligible participants, 43,779 were enrolled in the survey. Participation rate was high at 95.7% with 99.8% of participants undergoing both screening procedures and 99.0% of those eligible for sputum examination submitting at least one sputum sample. Forty cases of prevalent mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) and 16 mycobacteria other than tuberculosis (MOTT) cases were detected during the survey. Chest x-ray as screening tool had 3 and 5 times greater predictive odds for smear positive and bacteriological confirmed TB than symptom screening alone respectively. A TB prevalence of 74.1 (95% CI 48.3-99.3) per 100,000 adult population for smear positive TB and 119.3 (95% CI 78.8-159.9) per 100,000 adult population for bacteriological confirmed MTB was estimated for Rwanda. Conclusions The survey findings indicated a lower TB prevalence than previously estimated by WHO providing key lessons for national TB control, calling for more sensitive screening and diagnostic tools and a focus on key populations. Use of chest x-ray as screening tool was introduced to improve the diagnostic yield of TB

The secondary transmission pattern of COVID-19 based on contact tracing in Rwanda

Introduction COVID-19 has shown an exceptionally high spread rate across and within countries worldwide. Understanding the dynamics of such an infectious disease transmission is critical for devising strategies to control its spread. In particular, Rwanda was one of the African countries that started COVID-19 preparedness early in January 2020, and a total lockdown was imposed when the country had only 18 COVID-19 confirmed cases known. Using intensive contact tracing, several infections were identified, with the majority of them being returning travellers and their close contacts. We used the contact tracing data in Rwanda for understanding the geographic patterns of COVID-19 to inform targeted interventions.Methods We estimated the attack rates and identified risk factors associated to COVID-19 spread. We used Bayesian disease mapping models to assess the spatial pattern of COVID-19 and to identify areas characterised by unusually high or low relative risk. In addition, we used multiple variable conditional logistic regression to assess the impact of the risk factors.Results The results showed that COVID-19 cases in Rwanda are localised mainly in the central regions and in the southwest of Rwanda and that some clusters occurred in the northeast of Rwanda. Relationship to the index case, being male and coworkers are the important risk factors for COVID-19 transmission in Rwanda.Conclusion The analysis of contact tracing data using spatial modelling allowed us to identify high-risk areas at subnational level in Rwanda. Estimating risk factors for infection with SARS-CoV-2 is vital in identifying the clusters in low spread of SARS-CoV-2 subnational level. It is imperative to understand the interactions between the index case and contacts to identify superspreaders, risk factors and high-risk places. The findings recommend that self-isolation at home in Rwanda should be reviewed to limit secondary cases from the same households and spatiotemporal analysis should be introduced in routine monitoring of COVID-19 in Rwanda for policy making decision on real time

Applied statistical training to strengthen analysis and health research capacity in Rwanda

Background: To guide efficient investment of limited health resources in sub-Saharan Africa, local researchers need to be involved in, and guide, health system and policy research. While extensive survey and census data are available to health researchers and program officers in resource-limited countries, local involvement and leadership in research is limited due to inadequate experience, lack of dedicated research time and weak interagency connections, among other challenges. Many research-strengthening initiatives host prolonged fellowships out-of-country, yet their approaches have not been evaluated for effectiveness in involvement and development of local leadership in research. Methods: We developed, implemented and evaluated a multi-month, deliverable-driven, survey analysis training based in Rwanda to strengthen skills of five local research leaders, 15 statisticians, and a PhD candidate. Research leaders applied with a specific research question relevant to country challenges and committed to leading an analysis to publication. Statisticians with prerequisite statistical training and experience with a statistical software applied to participate in class-based trainings and complete an assigned analysis. Both statisticians and research leaders were provided ongoing in-country mentoring for analysis and manuscript writing. Results: Participants reported a high level of skill, knowledge and collaborator development from class-based trainings and out-of-class mentorship that were sustained 1 year later. Five of six manuscripts were authored by multi-institution teams and submitted to international peer-reviewed scientific journals, and three-quarters of the participants mentored others in survey data analysis or conducted an additional survey analysis in the year following the training. Conclusions: Our model was effective in utilizing existing survey data and strengthening skills among full-time working professionals without disrupting ongoing work commitments and using few resources. Critical to our success were a transparent, robust application process and time limited training supplemented by ongoing, in-country mentoring toward manuscript deliverables that were led by Rwanda’s health research leaders

Retention in care and virological failure among adult HIV+ patients on second-line ART in Rwanda: a national representative study

Background: Currently, there is limited evidence on the effectiveness of second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa. To address this challenge, outcomes of second-line protease inhibitor (PI) based ART in Rwanda were assessed. Methods: A two-stage cluster sampling design was undertaken. 49 of 340 health facilities linked to the open-source electronic medical record (EMR) system of Rwanda were randomly sampled. Data sampling criteria included adult HIV positive patients with documented change from first to second-line ART regimen. Retention in care and treatment failure (viral load above 1000 copies/mL) were evaluated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards and logistic regression models. Results: A total of 1688 patients (60% females) initiated second-line ART PI-based regimen by 31st December 2016 with a median follow-up time of 26 months (IQR 24–36). Overall, 92.5% of patients were retained in care; 83% achieved VL ≤ 1000 copies/ml, 2.8% were lost to care and 2.2% died. Defaulting from care was associated with more recent initiation of ART- PI based regimen, CD4 cell count ≤500 cells/mm³ at initiation of second line ART and viral load > 1000 copies/ml at last measurement. Viral failure was associated with younger age, WHO stage III&IV at ART initiation, CD4 cell count ≤500 cells/mm³ at switch, atazanavir based second-line ART and receiving care at a health center compared to hospital settings. Conclusions: A high proportion of patients on second-line ART are doing relatively well in Rwanda and retained in care with low viral failure rates. However, enhanced understandings of adherence and adherence interventions for less healthy individuals are required. Routine viral load measurement and tracing of loss to follow-up is fundamental in resource limited settings, especially among less healthy patients.Medicine, Faculty ofNon UBCPopulation and Public Health (SPPH), School ofReviewedFacult

Integrated Analysis of Cytokine Profiles in Malaria Patients Discloses Selective Upregulation of TGF-&beta;1, &beta;3, and IL-9 in Mild Clinical Presentation

The proper control of Plasmodium infection requires a finely balanced immune response. Here, we evaluated the implication of TGF-&beta;1 and TGF-&beta;3 in this process using novel monoclonal antibodies to measure their plasma concentrations in comparison with other cytokines and the expression of FOXP3 mRNA. Plasma cytokine levels were measured in 80 patients with severe anaemic malaria and 186 with a mild presentation using ELISA, and rtPCR was used to measure FOXP3 mRNA expression. While no mature TGF-&beta; isoforms were detected in the plasma, the latent TGF-&beta;1 and TGF-&beta;3 were strongly upregulated in patients with mild malaria and nearly undetected in patients with severe disease. Similar selective upregulation in mild patients was observed for IL-9 and FOXP3 mRNA, while IL-7, IL-10, IL-17, and IL-27, although higher in mild cases, were also detected in severe disease. In contrast, a clearly skewed trend of severe cases towards higher pro-inflammatory (IL-6, IL-13, TNF-&alpha;) and Th1 (IFN-&gamma;) responses was observed, which was associated with a higher level of parasitaemia as well as lower IgG and higher IgM responses. Together, these results suggest that the stimulation of regulatory T cells through TGF-&beta;1/TGF-&beta;3 and IL-9 is paramount to an effective and balanced protective immunity in natural human malaria infection

Sustainable strategies for Ebola virus disease outbreak preparedness in Africa: a case study on lessons learnt in countries neighbouring the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Abstract Background From May 2018 to September 2022, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) experienced seven Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks within its borders. During the 10th EVD outbreak (2018–2020), the largest experienced in the DRC and the second largest and most prolonged EVD outbreak recorded globally, a WHO risk assessment identified nine countries bordering the DRC as moderate to high risk from cross border importation. These countries implemented varying levels of Ebola virus disease preparedness interventions. This case study highlights the gains and shortfalls with the Ebola virus disease preparedness interventions within the various contexts of these countries against the background of a renewed and growing commitment for global epidemic preparedness highlighted during recent World Health Assembly events. Main text Several positive impacts from preparedness support to countries bordering the affected provinces in the DRC were identified, including development of sustained capacities which were leveraged upon to respond to the subsequent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Shortfalls such as lost opportunities for operationalizing cross-border regional preparedness collaboration and better integration of multidisciplinary perspectives, vertical approaches to response pillars such as surveillance, over dependence on external support and duplication of efforts especially in areas of capacity building were also identified. A recurrent theme that emerged from this case study is the propensity towards implementing short-term interventions during active Ebola virus disease outbreaks for preparedness rather than sustainable investment into strengthening systems for improved health security in alignment with IHR obligations, the Sustainable Development Goals and advocating global policy for addressing the larger structural determinants underscoring these outbreaks. Conclusions Despite several international frameworks established at the global level for emergency preparedness, a shortfall exists between global policy and practice in countries at high risk of cross border transmission from persistent Ebola virus disease outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of Congo. With renewed global health commitment for country emergency preparedness resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and cumulating in a resolution for a pandemic preparedness treaty, the time to review and address these gaps and provide recommendations for more sustainable and integrative approaches to emergency preparedness towards achieving global health security is now