National energy demand projections and analysis of Nepal

Zsfassung in dt. SpracheEine realistische Prognose des Energiebedarfs ist eine Voraussetzung für nachhaltige Nutzung der heimischen Energieressourcen eines Landes. Das Ziel dieser Studie ist es, den langfristigen Energiebedarf Nepals zu analysieren und Prognosen für dessen zukünftigen Verlauf zu erstellen. In dieser Studie wird das Energiebedarfsmodell in Sektoren unterteilt und die verfügbaren Informationen über den Energieverbrauch des Landes einbezogen. Zur Ermittlung des künftigen Energiebedarfs wurden vier jährliche Wachstumsszenarien der Nationalwirtschaft, sowie ein immer wechselndes demographisches Bild herangezogen. Aus diesen Szenarien wurde das Mittelwachstumsszenario ausgesucht um politische Eingriffe bei dem Wohn- und Industriesektor des Landes anzunehmen. Die Studienergebnisse zeigen, dass bei den projektierten Szenarien im Wohnsektor die Energienachfrage am Meisten ansteigen wird, gefolgt vom Transport-, Gewerbe-, Industrie-, Agrar- und Restsektor. In allen untersuchten Szenarien zeigt sich, dass die Nachfrage nach fester Biomasse abnimmt während die Nachfrage nach Erdölprodukten, Strom, Kohle und Biogas ansteigen wird. Von allen Energieformen wird die Preiserhöhungsrate der Erdölprodukte am höchstens sein, gefolgt von jener des Stroms, des Biogases beziehungsweise der Kohle. Ebenfalls wurde beobachtet, dass die Nachfrage nach fester Biomasse für das höchste Wachstumsszenario rascher absinkt als in den anderen Wachstumsszenarien. Die projizierten nationalen Energieindikatoren wie zum Beispiel der Pro-Kopf Stromverbrauch, der Pro-Kopf Energieverbrauch, der Teil des regionalen Energieverbrauchs und der strukturelle Teil des immer ansteigenden Kraftstoffkonsums sind wichtige Faktoren zum Planen und Vergleichen der heimischen Energieressourcen eines Landes. Wenn das obengenannte Strategieszenario im Wohnsektor eintritt, würde dies zu einem jährlich signifikant ansteigenden Energiebedarf führen. Die Studie des Industriebereichs hat ergeben, dass durch strategische Maßnahmen eine beträchtliche Menge an Energie eingespart werden kann.A reliable future energy demand projection is a prerequisite condition for sustainable utilization of local energy resources of a country. The purpose of this study is to project and analyze the long term national energy demands of the country - Nepal. In this study, sector wise nation's energy demand model has been developed by incorporating available energy consumptions information of the country. For capturing the future energy demands, this study has considered four annual growth scenarios of national economy along with changing demographic situations of the country. Among the selected growth scenarios, the medium growth scenario has been selected for further policy interventions on the residential and industrial sectors of the country. The finding from this research provides the evidence that in all of the projected scenarios, residential sector will be the main energy demanding sector, followed by transport, industrial, commercial, agricultural and others respectively. In coming years, the share of national demand of solid biomass will be decreased, while the demanding shares of petroleum products, electricity, coal and biogas will be increased in all of the projected scenarios. Among the fuels, the growth rates of the petroleum products will be the highest, followed by electricity, biogas and coal. It has also been observed that for the highest growth scenario, the demand of solid biomass will be decreased more rapidly in comparison with the other growth scenarios. The projected national level energy indicators like per capita electricity consumption, per capita total energy consumption, shares of sectoral energy demand and structure of demanding fuels shares will be the useful parameters for comparing and planning of local energy resources of the country. If the mentioned policy scenario on the residential sector will be followed then annually, a significant amount of reliable local electricity demand will be generated within the country. Similarly, in the industrial sector, the study has also figured out that the quantities of energy can be saved through the implementation of the suggested sectoral policy measures of the country.11

Exploration of Extensive Electricity Demand in Nepal

The aim of this research is to comprehensively analyze the Nepalrsquos long term electricity demand for the year 2012 to 2030. For this purpose, different scenarios have been considered. This analysis was done using IAEArsquos model, Model for Analysis of Energy Demand which is a bottom up model. The secondary data were obtained from government agencies and other organizations in energy sector. Starting from the base year, the future electricity demand has been projected under three scenarios comprising of possible future demographic, socio-economic and technological development of a country. The base year electricity demand is 3004 GWh which will reach to 6202 GWh in 2030 under Business as Usual Scenario (BAU). Further in Medium Growth Scenario (MG) and High Growth Scenario (HG), the electricity demand will reach 8399 GWh and 11783 GWh respectively. The percentage of share of electricity in base case for industry, agriculture, transportation, residential and service sector are respectively 38.31%, 2.42%, 0.19%, 47.39% and 11.67%. The result under high growth scenario shows that the total projected electricity demand for all the sectors in 2030 will be 11783GWh, out of which 5084GWh is industry, 4463GWh, 1991GWh, 183GWh and 62GWh are residential, service, agriculture and transport respectively. This shows how much electricity will be required to meet the projected demand in 2030

The effect of wildfires on air quality in Kathmandu, Nepal

Air pollution spikes in the central Himalayas' southern regions, including Nepal and northern India, occur mainly from wildfires during March to May. Despite being a significant contributor to pre-monsoon pollution, wildfire smoke remains under-researched. This study used multiple datasets and trajectory analysis to examine hazardous air pollution levels in Nepal's Kathmandu Valley from 2018-2022. It found 47 days exceeding the daily PM2.5 limit of 100 μg/m3, peaking at 305 μg/m3. The pollution was largely due to wildfire smoke from neighboring and transboundary areas, with a strong correlation between active fire counts and pollution levels. The correlation peaked at 0.89 (p<0.05) when lagged by two days during high fire years, like 2021, highlighting the valley's vulnerability due to its bowl-shaped structure. Our findings can inform legislation to mitigate wildfire-induced air pollution, which impacts both public health and the economy

Визначення деяких закономірностей функціонування гідроенергетичних компонентів для правильної експлуатації ГЕС Хамелія в Непалі

The main objective of the research study is to identify the status and analyze the problems in Chameliya hydropower plants in Nepal. In this paper, the hydropower has been studied to identify some regularities of hydropower components on proper operation and generation through primary and secondary data. Further, it been analyzed by bottlenecking through mechanical components testing for the detail study to find the actual problems. Hydropower contributes about 86 % of total internal generation to available energy in Nepal with 93 % of people having access to electricity through the national grid. Small hydropower plants (less than 30 MW) are 90 % of the installed plants contributing the major electricity demands of nearly 50 % in the country. Though hydropower is one of the major export commodities in the past few years, it still has deficits in the dry season. Chameliya hydropower plant, 30 MW situated in the far-western part of Nepal, generates 670 MWh of energy in the wet season and which declines to 384 MWh in the dry season. Even though the plant does not have the problem of much erosion and has a sufficient flow in the dry season, the generation value is still below the design. The issue of variation in shaft speed, misalignment of shaft bearing integrity and ultimately friction due to vibration, rises the temperature beyond the limit in the bearing Babbitt material result for failure in the plant with problematic shutdown. Thus, this research primarily focuses on the problem analysis in hydropower plants, concluding with the result that the developing countries need to have more focus on regular preventive maintenance and also schedule large maintenance on mechanical components like shafts, bearings, turbine etc. to avoid bigger damage in the long run. Hence, the study also suggests that mechanical failure in a hydropower is mostly common and therefore, a robust mechanical structure along with high safety factor components need to be encouraged where the possibilities of regular maintenance and smooth operation are reduced.Основна мета дослідження полягає в тому, щоб визначити стан і проаналізувати проблеми гідроелектростанцій Chameliya в Непалі. У цьому документі наведено результати досліджень, спрямованих на виявлення деяких закономірностей компонентів гідроенергетики щодо належної роботи та виробництва за допомогою первинних і вторинних даних. Крім того, проаналізовано функціонування шляхом тестування механічних компонентів для детального вивчення для виявлення фактичних проблем. Гідроенергетика забезпечує близько 86 % загальної внутрішньої генерації наявної енергії в Непалі, при цьому 93 % людей мають доступ до електроенергії через національну мережу. Малі гідроелектростанції (потужністю менше 30 МВт) складають 90 % встановлених станцій, що забезпечують майже 50 % основних потреб країни в електроенергії. Хоча гідроенергетика є одним із основних експортних товарів за останні кілька років, вона все ще має дефіцит у сухий сезон. ГЕС Chameliya потужністю 30 МВт, розташована в крайньо-західній частині Непалу, виробляє 670 МВт-год енергії в сезон дощів і знижується до 384 МВт-год в сухий сезон. Незважаючи на те, що станція не має проблеми значної ерозії та має достатній потік у сухий сезон, значення генерації все ще нижче за проектне. Проблема зміни швидкості валу, порушення цілісності підшипника валу та, зрештою, тертя через вібрацію, підвищує температуру понад лімітовану у бабітовому матеріалі підшипника, що призводить до поломки установки з проблемною зупинкою. Таким чином, це дослідження в першу чергу зосереджено на аналізі проблем на гідроелектростанціях, в результаті чого країни, що розвиваються, повинні приділяти більше уваги регулярному профілактичному технічному обслуговуванню, а також планувати масштабне технічне обслуговування механічних компонентів, таких як вали, підшипники, турбіна тощо, щоб уникнути більшого пошкодження в довгостроковій перспективі. Таким чином, дослідження також припускає, що механічні збої в гідроелектростанціях є здебільшого поширеним явищем, і тому необхідно заохочувати надійну механічну конструкцію разом із компонентами з високим коефіцієнтом безпеки, де можливості регулярного технічного обслуговування та безперебійної роботи зменшуютьс

BARRIER FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF IMPROVED COOK STOVE

Abstract: More than 85 % of total population lives in rural part of Nepal. Traditionally, they are mostly using biomass based cooking stove for cooking purpose. To substitute those traditionally using cooking stoves, many Improved Cooking Stoves (ICS) programs are implemented and now more than three hundred thousand improved cooking stoves are already installed in rural households across the country. To accelerate the installation of such stoves more commonly in coming days, the past experiences and observed barriers for implementation of the programs are necessary to trace out. Thus, the present paper highlights the major barriers related to policy, technology, finance and social aspects of already disseminated ICSs based on literature review and questionnaires interview with relevant stakeholders. The statistical analysis of the study is carried out using SPSS statistical tool and presented. Key words: Improved cooking stove (ICS), Stakeholders, and SPSS analyzing tool 1

An Assessment of the Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Change on the Degradation of Ecosystem Service Values in Kathmandu Valley Using Remote Sensing and GIS

Land use and land cover (LULC) robustly influence the delivery of the ecosystem services that humans rely on. This study used Kathmandu Valley as a study area which is a fast-growing and most vulnerable city to climate change. Remote sensing and GIS methods are the most significant methods for measuring the impact of LULC on the ecosystem service value (ESV). The satellite-based dataset was used for quantitative assessment of the LULC and ecosystem service value for 10-year intervals from the year 1989 to 2019. The result revealed that the area of forest cover, cropland, and waterbodies decreased by 28.33%, 4.35%, and 91.5%, respectively, whereas human settlement and shrubland increased by more than a hundred times and barren land by 21.14% at the end of the study period. This study found that Kathmandu valley lost 20.60% ESV over 30 years which dropped from USD 122.84 million to USD 97.54 million. The urban growth and extension of agricultural land to forest cover areas were found to be contributing factors for the reduction in ESV of Kathmandu valley. Cropland transformed into shrubland, bringing about an increase in ESV of some areas of the study region. In conclusion, the aggressive increase in population growth with inadequate urban planning and fragmentation of farmlands influenced the ESV of Kathmandu valley

An Assessment of the Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Change on the Degradation of Ecosystem Service Values in Kathmandu Valley Using Remote Sensing and GIS

Land use and land cover (LULC) robustly influence the delivery of the ecosystem services that humans rely on. This study used Kathmandu Valley as a study area which is a fast-growing and most vulnerable city to climate change. Remote sensing and GIS methods are the most significant methods for measuring the impact of LULC on the ecosystem service value (ESV). The satellite-based dataset was used for quantitative assessment of the LULC and ecosystem service value for 10-year intervals from the year 1989 to 2019. The result revealed that the area of forest cover, cropland, and waterbodies decreased by 28.33%, 4.35%, and 91.5%, respectively, whereas human settlement and shrubland increased by more than a hundred times and barren land by 21.14% at the end of the study period. This study found that Kathmandu valley lost 20.60% ESV over 30 years which dropped from USD 122.84 million to USD 97.54 million. The urban growth and extension of agricultural land to forest cover areas were found to be contributing factors for the reduction in ESV of Kathmandu valley. Cropland transformed into shrubland, bringing about an increase in ESV of some areas of the study region. In conclusion, the aggressive increase in population growth with inadequate urban planning and fragmentation of farmlands influenced the ESV of Kathmandu valley