Explaining inconsistencies between data on condom use and condom sales

BACKGROUND: Several HIV prevention programs use data on condom sales and survey-based data on condom prevalence to monitor progress. However, such indicators are not always consistent. This paper aims to explain these inconsistencies and to assess whether the number of sex acts and the number of condoms used can be estimated from survey data. This would be useful for program managers, as it would enable estimation of the number of condoms needed for different target groups. METHODS: We use data from six Demographic and Health Surveys to estimate the total annual number of sex acts and number of condoms used. Estimates of the number of sex acts are based on self-reported coital frequency, the proportion reporting intercourse the previous day, and survival methods. Estimates of the number of condoms used are based on self-reported frequency of use, the proportion reporting condom use the previous day and in last intercourse. The estimated number of condoms used is then compared with reported data on condom sales and distribution. RESULTS: Analysis of data on the annual number of condoms sold and distributed to the trade reveals very erratic patterns, which reflect stock-ups at various levels in the distribution chain. Consequently, condom sales data are a very poor indicator of the level of condom use. Estimates of both the number of sexual acts and the number of condoms used vary enormously based on the estimation method used. For several surveys, the highest estimate of the annual number of condoms used is tenfold that of the lowest estimate. CONCLUSIONS: Condom sales to the trade are a poor indicator of levels of condom use, and are therefore insufficient to monitor HIV prevention programs. While survey data on condom prevalence allow more detailed monitoring, converting such data to an estimated number of sex acts and condoms used is not straightforward. The estimation methods yield widely different results, and it is impossible to determine which method is most accurate. Until the reliability of these various estimation methods can be established, estimating the annual number of condoms used from survey data will not be feasible. Collecting survey data on the number of sex acts and the number of condoms used in a fixed time period may enable the calculation of more reliable estimates of the number of sex acts and condoms used

Counting the costs: Comparing depot medroxyprogesterone acetate and norethisterone oenanthate utilisation patterns in South Africa

BACKGROUND: In South Africa, where health care resources are limited, it is important to ensure that drugs provision and use is rational. The Essential Drug List includes depot medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA) and norethisterone oenanthate (NET-EN) as injectable progestagen-only contraceptives (IPCs), and both products are extensively used. OBJECTIVES AND METHODS: Utilisation patterns of the injectable contraceptive products DMPA and NET-EN are compared in the context of current knowledge of the safety and efficacy of these agents. Utilisation patterns were analysed by means of a Pareto (ABC) analysis of IPCs issued from 4 South African provincial pharmaceutical depots over 3 financial years. A case study from rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, is used to examine utilisation patterns and self-reported side effects experienced by 187 women using IPCs. RESULTS: IPCs accounted for a substantial share of total state expenditure on drugs. While more DMPA than NET-EN was issued, NET-EN distribution from 2 depots increased over the 3-year period. Since DMPA was cheaper, if all NET-EN clients in the 1999/2000 financial year (annualised) had used DMPA, the 4 depots could have saved 4.95 million South African Rands on product acquisition costs alone. The KZN case study showed slightly more NET-EN (54%) than DMPA (46%) use; no significant differences in self-reported side effects; and that younger women were more likely to use NET-EN than DMPA (p = 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Providing IPCs on the basis of age is not appropriate or cost effective. Rational use of these products should include consideration of the cost of prescribing one over another

Differentials of fertility in North and South Gondar zones, northwest Ethiopia: A comparative cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Ethiopia is one of the most densely populated countries in Africa with an estimated population of 77.1 million in mid-2007. Uncontrolled fertility has adversely influenced the socio-economic, demographic and environmental situations of the country. It is one of the largest and poorest countries that, even in the midst of crisis, has maintained high levels of fertility. This study was aimed at investigating the most important factors influencing fertility behavior in Northwest Ethiopia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A comparative cross-sectional study which included 2424 women aged 25 years and above was undertaken in the Amhara region of Northwest Ethiopia. The study subjects were grouped into high fertile and low fertile categories. There were 1011 and 1413 women in the high and low fertile groups, respectively. A multi-stage cluster sampling stratified by place of residence was employed to select the required study subjects. Both bivariate and multivariate logistic regression techniques were used to analyze the data.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among the 25 variables considered in this study, only 9 of them were found significantly and independently associated with the level of fertility. Women with at least secondary education were at a lower risk of high fertility with OR = 0.37 (95% CI: 0.21 to 0.64) compared to those with no formal education. However, women with primary education did not show any significant difference when compared with the same baseline group. Age at first marriage was inversely associated with the number of children ever born alive. Place of residence, household expenditure, number of children who have died, attitude towards using contraceptives, women's knowledge on the safe period, and current marital status were the other variables that showed significant associations with the level of fertility.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Female education beyond the primary level, reduced infant and child mortality, delayed marriage and correct knowledge on the safe period during the menstrual cycle were amongst the main factors that had a bearing on high fertility.</p

Reductions in abortion-related mortality following policy reform: evidence from Romania, South Africa and Bangladesh

Unsafe abortion is a significant contributor to worldwide maternal mortality; however, abortion law and policy liberalization could lead to drops in unsafe abortion and related deaths. This review provides an analysis of changes in abortion mortality in three countries where significant policy reform and related service delivery occurred. Drawing on peer-reviewed literature, population data and grey literature on programs and policies, this paper demonstrates the policy and program changes that led to declines in abortion-related mortality in Romania, South Africa and Bangladesh. In all three countries, abortion policy liberalization was followed by implementation of safe abortion services and other reproductive health interventions. South Africa and Bangladesh trained mid-level providers to offer safe abortion and menstrual regulation services, respectively, Romania improved contraceptive policies and services, and Bangladesh made advances in emergency obstetric care and family planning. The findings point to the importance of multi-faceted and complementary reproductive health reforms in successful implementation of abortion policy reform

Analysing low intensity conflict in Africa using press reports

En l’absence de sources fiables et non biaisées, les articles de presse peuvent servir à évaluer quelques causes de mortalité spécifiques, à condition qu’une analyse politique des relations entre la presse et le pouvoir politique soit parallèlement conduite. Testée sur des données recueillies dans un quotidien majeur du Kenya, la méthode proposée permet l’analyse géographique et historique des décès dus à la violence policière, aux violences communautaires et au banditisme. Elle permet en outre d’identifier les divergences entre les discours parus dans la presse sur l’insécurité et la violence politique, et la réalité des décès rapportés dans cette même presse.In the absence of reliable and unbiased sources in most African countries, press reports can serve to evaluate some specific causes of death, on condition that a political analysis of the relation between the press and the political power is conducted. Tested on data collected from a leading Kenyan newspaper, the method proposed here is used to conduct a historical and geographical analysis of deaths due to police violence, community clashes and banditry. It also helps to point out the discrepancies between the press discourses on insecurity and political violence, and the reality of deaths reported by the very same press.ou