PrEP as a feature in the optimal landscape of combination HIV prevention in sub-Saharan Africa

INTRODUCTION: The new WHO guidelines recommend offering pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to people who are at substantial risk of HIV infection. However, where PrEP should be prioritised, and for which population groups, remains an open question. The HIV landscape in sub-Saharan Africa features limited prevention resources, multiple options for achieving cost saving, and epidemic heterogeneity. This paper examines what role PrEP should play in optimal prevention in this complex and dynamic landscape. METHODS: We use a model that was previously developed to capture subnational HIV transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. With this model, we can consider how prevention funds could be distributed across and within countries throughout sub-Saharan Africa to enable optimal HIV prevention (that is, avert the greatest number of infections for the lowest cost). Here, we focus on PrEP to elucidate where, and to whom, it would optimally be offered in portfolios of interventions (alongside voluntary medical male circumcision, treatment as prevention, and behaviour change communication). Over a range of continental expenditure levels, we use our model to explore prevention patterns that incorporate PrEP, exclude PrEP, or implement PrEP according to a fixed incidence threshold. RESULTS: At low-to-moderate levels of total prevention expenditure, we find that the optimal intervention portfolios would include PrEP in only a few regions and primarily for female sex workers (FSW). Prioritisation of PrEP would expand with increasing total expenditure, such that the optimal prevention portfolios would offer PrEP in more subnational regions and increasingly for men who have sex with men (MSM) and the lower incidence general population. The marginal benefit of including PrEP among the available interventions increases with overall expenditure by up to 14% (relative to excluding PrEP). The minimum baseline incidence for the optimal offer of PrEP declines for all population groups as expenditure increases. We find that using a fixed incidence benchmark to guide PrEP decisions would incur considerable losses in impact (up to 7%) compared with an approach that uses PrEP more flexibly in light of prevailing budget conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that, for an optimal distribution of prevention resources, choices of whether to implement PrEP in subnational regions should depend on the scope for impact of other possible interventions, local incidence in population groups, and total resources available. If prevention funding were to become restricted in the future, it may be suboptimal to use PrEP according to a fixed incidence benchmark, and other prevention modalities may be more cost-effective. In contrast, expansions in funding could permit PrEP to be used to its full potential in epidemiologically driven prevention portfolios and thereby enable a more cost-effective HIV response across Africa

Predictors of mortality in HIV-1 infected children on antiretroviral therapy in Kenya: a prospective cohort

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Among children, early mortality following highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) remains high. It is important to define correlates of mortality in order to improve outcome.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>HIV-1-infected children aged 18 months-12 years were followed up at Kenyatta National Hospital, Nairobi after initiating NNRTI-based HAART. Cofactors for mortality were determined using multivariate Cox regression models.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Between August 2004 and November 2008, 149 children were initiated on HAART of whom 135 were followed for a total of 238 child-years (median 21 months) after HAART initiation. Baseline median CD4% was 6.8% and median HIV-1-RNA was 5.98-log₁₀copies/ml. Twenty children (13.4%) died at a median of 35 days post-HAART initiation. Mortality during the entire follow-up period was 8.4 deaths per 100 child-years (46 deaths/100 child-years in first 4 months and 1.0 deaths/100 child-years after 4 months post-HAART initiation). On univariate Cox regression, baseline hemoglobin (Hb) <9 g/dl, weight-for-height z-score (WHZ) < -2, and WHO clinical stage 4 were associated with increased risk of death (Hb <9 g/dl HR 3.00 [95% C.I. 1.21-7.39], p = 0.02, WHZ < -2 HR 3.41 [95% C.I. 1.28-9.08], p = 0.01, and WHO clinical stage 4, HR 3.08 [1.17-8.12], p = 0.02). On multivariate analysis Hb < 9 g/dl remained predictive of mortality after controlling for age, baseline CD4%, WHO clinical stage and weight-for-height z-score (HR 2.95 (95% C.I. 1.04-8.35) p = 0.04).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>High early mortality was observed in this cohort of Kenyan children receiving HAART, and low baseline hemoglobin was an independent risk factor for death.</p

Retest and treat: a review of national HIV retesting guidelines to inform elimination of mother-to-child HIV transmission (EMTCT) efforts.

INTRODUCTION: High maternal HIV incidence contributes substantially to mother-to-child HIV transmission (MTCT) in some settings. Since 2006, HIV retesting during the third trimester and breastfeeding has been recommended by the World Health Organization in higher prevalence (≥5%) settings to reduce MTCT. However, many countries lack clarity on when and how often to retest pregnant and postpartum women to optimize resources and service delivery. We reviewed and characterized national guidelines on maternal retesting based on timing and frequency. METHODS: We identified 52 countries to represent variations in HIV prevalence, geography, and MTCT priority and searched available national MTCT, HIV testing and HIV treatment policies published between 2007 and 2017 for recommendations on retesting during pregnancy, labour/delivery and postpartum. Recommended retesting frequency and timing was extracted. Country HIV prevalence was classified as: very low (5 to <15%) and high (≥15%). Women with unknown HIV status at delivery/postpartum were included in retesting guidelines. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Overall, policies from 49 countries were identified; 51% from 2015 or later and most (n = 25) were from Africa. Four countries were high HIV prevalence, seven intermediate, sixteen low and twenty-two very low. Most (n = 31) had guidance on universal voluntary opt-out HIV testing at the first antenatal care (ANC) visit. Beyond the first ANC visit, the majority (78%, n = 38) had guidance on retesting; 22 recommended retesting all women with unknown/negative status, five only if unknown HIV status, three in pregnancy based on risk and eight combining these approaches. Retesting was universally recommended during pregnancy, labour/delivery, and postpartum for all high prevalence settings and four of seven intermediate prevalence settings. Five UNAIDS priority countries for EMTCT with low/very low HIV prevalence, but high/intermediate MTCT, had no guidance on retesting. CONCLUSIONS: Retesting guidelines for pregnant and postpartum women were ubiquitous in high prevalence countries and defined in some intermediate prevalence countries, but absent in some low HIV prevalence countries with high MTCT. Countries may require additional guidance on how to optimize maternal HIV testing and whether to prioritize retesting efforts or discontinue universal retesting based on HIV incidence. Research is needed to assess country-level guideline implementation and impact