Inventory control for point-of-use locations in hospitals

Most inventory management systems at hospital departments are characterised by lost sales, periodic reviews with short lead times, and limited storage capacity. We develop two types of exact models that deal with all these characteristics. In a capacity model, the service level is maximised subject to a capacity restriction, and in a service model the required capacity is minimised subject to a service level restriction. We also formulate approximation models applicable for any lost-sales inventory system (cost objective, no lead time restrictions etc). For the capacity model, we develop a simple inventory rule to set the reorder levels and order quantities. Numerical results for this inventory rule show an average deviation of 1% from the optimal service levels. We also embed the single-item models in a multi-item system. Furthermore, we compare the performance of fixed order size replenishment policies and (R, s, S) policies

PRISM protocol: A randomised phase II trial of nivolumab in combination with alternatively scheduled ipilimumab in first-line treatment of patients with advanced or metastatic renal cell carcinoma

Background The combination of nivolumab, a programmed death-1 (PD-1) targeted monoclonal antibody, with the cytotoxic T-lymphocyte antigen-4 (CTLA-4) targeted antibody, ipilimumab, represents a new standard of care in the first-line setting for patients with intermediate- and poor-risk metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) based on recent phase III data. Combining ipilimumab with nivolumab increases rates of grade 3 and 4 toxicity compared with nivolumab alone, and the optimal scheduling of these agents when used together remains unknown. The aim of the PRISM study is to assess whether less frequent dosing of ipilimumab (12-weekly versus 3-weekly), in combination with nivolumab, is associated with a favourable toxicity profile without adversely impacting efficacy. Methods The PRISM trial is a UK-based, open label, multi-centre, phase II, randomised controlled trial. The trial population consists of patients with untreated locally advanced or metastatic clear cell RCC, and aims to recruit 189 participants. Participants will be randomised on a 2:1 basis in favour of a modified schedule of 4 doses of 12-weekly ipilimumab versus a standard schedule of 4 doses of 3-weekly ipilimumab, both in combination with standard nivolumab. The proportion of participants experiencing a grade 3 or 4 adverse reaction within 12 months forms the primary endpoint of the study, but with 12-month progression free survival a key secondary endpoint. The incidence of all adverse events, discontinuation rates, overall response rate, duration of response, overall survival rates and health related quality of life will also be analysed as secondary endpoints. In addition, the potential of circulating and tissue-based biomarkers as predictors of therapy response will be explored. Discussion The combination of nivolumab with ipilimumab is active in patients with mRCC. Modifying the frequency of ipilimumab dosing may mitigate toxicity rates and positively impact quality of life without compromising efficacy, a hypothesis being explored in other tumour types such as non-small cell lung cancer. The best way to give this combination to patients with mRCC must be similarly established

Ultrasound, CT, MRI, or PET-CT for staging and re-staging of adults with cutaneous melanoma.

BACKGROUND: Melanoma is one of the most aggressive forms of skin cancer, with the potential to metastasise to other parts of the body via the lymphatic system and the bloodstream. Melanoma accounts for a small percentage of skin cancer cases but is responsible for the majority of skin cancer deaths. Various imaging tests can be used with the aim of detecting metastatic spread of disease following a primary diagnosis of melanoma (primary staging) or on clinical suspicion of disease recurrence (re-staging). Accurate staging is crucial to ensuring that patients are directed to the most appropriate and effective treatment at different points on the clinical pathway. Establishing the comparative accuracy of ultrasound, computed tomography (CT), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and positron emission tomography (PET)-CT imaging for detection of nodal or distant metastases, or both, is critical to understanding if, how, and where on the pathway these tests might be used. OBJECTIVES: Primary objectivesWe estimated accuracy separately according to the point in the clinical pathway at which imaging tests were used. Our objectives were:• to determine the diagnostic accuracy of ultrasound or PET-CT for detection of nodal metastases before sentinel lymph node biopsy in adults with confirmed cutaneous invasive melanoma; and• to determine the diagnostic accuracy of ultrasound, CT, MRI, or PET-CT for whole body imaging in adults with cutaneous invasive melanoma:○ for detection of any metastasis in adults with a primary diagnosis of melanoma (i.e. primary staging at presentation); and○ for detection of any metastasis in adults undergoing staging of recurrence of melanoma (i.e. re-staging prompted by findings on routine follow-up).We undertook separate analyses according to whether accuracy data were reported per patient or per lesion.Secondary objectivesWe sought to determine the diagnostic accuracy of ultrasound, CT, MRI, or PET-CT for whole body imaging (detection of any metastasis) in mixed or not clearly described populations of adults with cutaneous invasive melanoma.For study participants undergoing primary staging or re-staging (for possible recurrence), and for mixed or unclear populations, our objectives were:• to determine the diagnostic accuracy of ultrasound, CT, MRI, or PET-CT for detection of nodal metastases;• to determine the diagnostic accuracy of ultrasound, CT, MRI, or PET-CT for detection of distant metastases; and• to determine the diagnostic accuracy of ultrasound, CT, MRI, or PET-CT for detection of distant metastases according to metastatic site. SEARCH METHODS: We undertook a comprehensive search of the following databases from inception up to August 2016: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials; MEDLINE; Embase; CINAHL; CPCI; Zetoc; Science Citation Index; US National Institutes of Health Ongoing Trials Register; NIHR Clinical Research Network Portfolio Database; and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. We studied reference lists as well as published systematic review articles. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included studies of any design that evaluated ultrasound (with or without the use of fine needle aspiration cytology (FNAC)), CT, MRI, or PET-CT for staging of cutaneous melanoma in adults, compared with a reference standard of histological confirmation or imaging with clinical follow-up of at least three months' duration. We excluded studies reporting multiple applications of the same test in more than 10% of study participants. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently extracted all data using a standardised data extraction and quality assessment form (based on the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2 (QUADAS-2)). We estimated accuracy using the bivariate hierarchical method to produce summary sensitivities and specificities with 95% confidence and prediction regions. We undertook analysis of studies allowing direct and indirect comparison between tests. We examined heterogeneity between studies by visually inspecting the forest plots of sensitivity and specificity and summary receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots. Numbers of identified studies were insufficient to allow formal investigation of potential sources of heterogeneity. MAIN RESULTS: We included a total of 39 publications reporting on 5204 study participants; 34 studies reporting data per patient included 4980 study participants with 1265 cases of metastatic disease, and seven studies reporting data per lesion included 417 study participants with 1846 potentially metastatic lesions, 1061 of which were confirmed metastases. The risk of bias was low or unclear for all domains apart from participant flow. Concerns regarding applicability of the evidence were high or unclear for almost all domains. Participant selection from mixed or not clearly defined populations and poorly described application and interpretation of index tests were particularly problematic.The accuracy of imaging for detection of regional nodal metastases before sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) was evaluated in 18 studies. In 11 studies (2614 participants; 542 cases), the summary sensitivity of ultrasound alone was 35.4% (95% confidence interval (CI) 17.0% to 59.4%) and specificity was 93.9% (95% CI 86.1% to 97.5%). Combining pre-SLNB ultrasound with FNAC revealed summary sensitivity of 18.0% (95% CI 3.58% to 56.5%) and specificity of 99.8% (95% CI 99.1% to 99.9%) (1164 participants; 259 cases). Four studies demonstrated lower sensitivity (10.2%, 95% CI 4.31% to 22.3%) and specificity (96.5%,95% CI 87.1% to 99.1%) for PET-CT before SLNB (170 participants, 49 cases). When these data are translated to a hypothetical cohort of 1000 people eligible for SLNB, 237 of whom have nodal metastases (median prevalence), the combination of ultrasound with FNAC potentially allows 43 people with nodal metastases to be triaged directly to adjuvant therapy rather than having SLNB first, at a cost of two people with false positive results (who are incorrectly managed). Those with a false negative ultrasound will be identified on subsequent SLNB.Limited test accuracy data were available for whole body imaging via PET-CT for primary staging or re-staging for disease recurrence, and none evaluated MRI. Twenty-four studies evaluated whole body imaging. Six of these studies explored primary staging following a confirmed diagnosis of melanoma (492 participants), three evaluated re-staging of disease following some clinical indication of recurrence (589 participants), and 15 included mixed or not clearly described population groups comprising participants at a number of different points on the clinical pathway and at varying stages of disease (1265 participants). Results for whole body imaging could not be translated to a hypothetical cohort of people due to paucity of data.Most of the studies (6/9) of primary disease or re-staging of disease considered PET-CT, two in comparison to CT alone, and three studies examined the use of ultrasound. No eligible evaluations of MRI in these groups were identified. All studies used histological reference standards combined with follow-up, and two included FNAC for some participants. Observed accuracy for detection of any metastases for PET-CT was higher for re-staging of disease (summary sensitivity from two studies: 92.6%, 95% CI 85.3% to 96.4%; specificity: 89.7%, 95% CI 78.8% to 95.3%; 153 participants; 95 cases) compared to primary staging (sensitivities from individual studies ranged from 30% to 47% and specificities from 73% to 88%), and was more sensitive than CT alone in both population groups, but participant numbers were very small.No conclusions can be drawn regarding routine imaging of the brain via MRI or CT. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Review authors found a disappointing lack of evidence on the accuracy of imaging in people with a diagnosis of melanoma at different points on the clinical pathway. Studies were small and often reported data according to the number of lesions rather than the number of study participants. Imaging with ultrasound combined with FNAC before SLNB may identify around one-fifth of those with nodal disease, but confidence intervals are wide and further work is needed to establish cost-effectiveness. Much of the evidence for whole body imaging for primary staging or re-staging of disease is focused on PET-CT, and comparative data with CT or MRI are lacking. Future studies should go beyond diagnostic accuracy and consider the effects of different imaging tests on disease management. The increasing availability of adjuvant therapies for people with melanoma at high risk of disease spread at presentation will have a considerable impact on imaging services, yet evidence for the relative diagnostic accuracy of available tests is limited

Small-scale magnetic buoyancy and magnetic pumping effects in a turbulent convection

We determine the nonlinear drift velocities of the mean magnetic field and nonlinear turbulent magnetic diffusion in a turbulent convection. We show that the nonlinear drift velocities are caused by the three kinds of the inhomogeneities, i.e., inhomogeneous turbulence; the nonuniform fluid density and the nonuniform turbulent heat flux. The inhomogeneous turbulence results in the well-known turbulent diamagnetic and paramagnetic velocities. The nonlinear drift velocities of the mean magnetic field cause the small-scale magnetic buoyancy and magnetic pumping effects in the turbulent convection. These phenomena are different from the large-scale magnetic buoyancy and magnetic pumping effects which are due to the effect of the mean magnetic field on the large-scale density stratified fluid flow. The small-scale magnetic buoyancy and magnetic pumping can be stronger than these large-scale effects when the mean magnetic field is smaller than the equipartition field. We discuss the small-scale magnetic buoyancy and magnetic pumping effects in the context of the solar and stellar turbulent convection. We demonstrate also that the nonlinear turbulent magnetic diffusion in the turbulent convection is anisotropic even for a weak mean magnetic field. In particular, it is enhanced in the radial direction. The magnetic fluctuations due to the small-scale dynamo increase the turbulent magnetic diffusion of the toroidal component of the mean magnetic field, while they do not affect the turbulent magnetic diffusion of the poloidal field.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figure, REVTEX4, Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics, in pres

Hypoglycemia Assessed by Continuous Glucose Monitoring Is Associated with Preclinical Atherosclerosis in Individuals with Impaired Glucose Tolerance

Hypoglycemia is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular adverse clinical outcomes. There is evidence that impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) is associated with cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Whether IGT individuals have asymptomatic hypoglycemia under real-life conditions that are related to early atherosclerosis is unknown. To this aim, we measured episodes of hypoglycemia during continuous interstitial glucose monitoring (CGM) and evaluated their relationship with early manifestation of vascular atherosclerosis in glucose tolerant and intolerant individuals. An oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) was performed in 79 non-diabetic subjects. Each individual underwent continuous glucose monitoring for 72 h. Cardiovascular risk factors and ultrasound measurement of carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) were evaluated. IGT individuals had a worse cardiovascular risk profile, including higher IMT, and spent significantly more time in hypoglycemia than glucose-tolerant individuals. IMT was significantly correlated with systolic (r = 0.22; P = 0.05) and diastolic blood pressure (r = 0.28; P = 0.01), total (r = 0.26; P = 0.02) and LDL cholesterol (r = 0.27; P = 0.01), 2-h glucose (r = 0.39; P<0.0001), insulin sensitivity (r = −0.26; P = 0.03), and minutes spent in hypoglycemia (r = 0.45; P<0.0001). In univariate analyses adjusted for gender, minutes spent in hypoglycemia were significantly correlated with age (r = 0.26; P = 0.01), waist circumference (r = 0.33; P = 0.003), 2-h glucose (r = 0.58; P<0.0001), and 2-h insulin (r = 0.27; P = 0.02). In a stepwise multivariate regression analysis, the variables significantly associated with IMT were minutes spent in hypoglycemia (r2 = 0.252; P<0.0001), and ISI index (r2 = 0.089; P = 0.004), accounting for 34.1% of the variation. Episodes of hypoglycemia may be considered as a new potential cardiovascular risk factor for IGT individuals

DNA Fingerprinting Validates Seed Dispersal Curves from Observational Studies in the Neotropical Legume Parkia

Background: Determining the distances over which seeds are dispersed is a crucial component for examining spatial patterns of seed dispersal and their consequences for plant reproductive success and population structure. However, following the fate of individual seeds after removal from the source tree till deposition at a distant place is generally extremely difficult. Here we provide a comparison of observationally and genetically determined seed dispersal distances and dispersal curves in a Neotropical animal-plant system. Methodology/Principal Findings: In a field study on the dispersal of seeds of three Parkia (Fabaceae) species by two Neotropical primate species, Saguinus fuscicollis and Saguinus mystax, in Peruvian Amazonia, we observationally determined dispersal distances. These dispersal distances were then validated through DNA fingerprinting, by matching DNA from the maternally derived seed coat to DNA from potential source trees. We found that dispersal distances are strongly rightskewed, and that distributions obtained through observational and genetic methods and fitted distributions do not differ significantly from each other. Conclusions/Significance: Our study showed that seed dispersal distances can be reliably estimated through observational methods when a strict criterion for inclusion of seeds is observed. Furthermore, dispersal distances produced by the two primate species indicated that these primates fulfil one of the criteria for efficient seed dispersers. Finally, our stud

Collaborative denoising autoencoder for high glycated haemoglobin prediction.

A pioneering study is presented demonstrating that the presence of high glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) levels in a patient’s blood can be reliably predicted from routinely collected clinical data. This paves the way for performing early detection of Type-2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM). This will save healthcare providers a major cost associated with the administration and assessment of clinical tests for HbA1c. A novel collaborative denoising autoencoder framework is used to address this challenge. The framework builds an independent denoising autoencoder model for the high and low HbA1c level, which extracts feature representations in the latent space. A baseline model using just three features: patient age together with triglycerides and glucose level achieves 76% F1-score with an SVM classifier. The collaborative denoising autoencoder uses 78 features and can predict HbA1c level with 81% F1-score

The Importance of Tree Size and Fecundity for Wind Dispersal of Big-Leaf Mahogany

Seed dispersal by wind is a critical yet poorly understood process in tropical forest trees. How tree size and fecundity affect this process at the population level remains largely unknown because of insufficient replication across adults. We measured seed dispersal by the endangered neotropical timber species big-leaf mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla King, Meliaceae) in the Brazilian Amazon at 25 relatively isolated trees using multiple 1-m wide belt transects extended 100 m downwind. Tree diameter and fecundity correlated positively with increased seed shadow extent; but in combination large, high fecundity trees contributed disproportionately to longer-distance dispersal events (>60 m). Among three empirical models fitted to seed density vs. distance in one dimension, the Student-t (2Dt) generally fit best (compared to the negative exponential and inverse power). When seedfall downwind was modelled in two dimensions using a normalised sample, it peaked furthest downwind (c. 25 m) for large, high-fecundity trees; with the inverse Gaussian and Weibull functions providing comparable fits that were slightly better than the lognormal. Although most seeds fell within 30 m of parent trees, relatively few juveniles were found within this distance, resulting in juvenile-to-seed ratios peaking at c. 35–45 m. Using the 2Dt model fits to predict seed densities downwind, coupled with known fecundity data for 2000–2009, we evaluated potential Swietenia regeneration near adults (≤30 m dispersal) and beyond 30 m. Mean seed arrival into canopy gaps >30 m downwind was more than 3× greater for large, high fecundity trees than small, high-fecundity trees. Tree seed production did not necessarily scale up proportionately with diameter, and was not consistent across years, and this resulting intraspecific variation can have important consequences for local patterns of dispersal in forests. Our results have important implications for management and conservation of big-leaf mahogany populations, and may apply to other threatened wind-dispersed Meliaceae trees