Heterogeneous coupling of the Sumatran megathrust constrained by geodetic and paleogeodetic measurements

Geodetic and paleogeodetic measurements of interseismic strain above the Sumatran portion of the Sunda subduction zone reveal a heterogeneous pattern of coupling. Annual banding in corals provides vertical rates of deformation spanning the last half of the 20th century, and repeated GPS surveys between 1991 and 2001 and continuous measurements at GPS stations operated since 2002 provide horizontal velocities. Near the equator, the megathrust is locked over a narrow width of only a few tens of kilometers. In contrast, the locked fault zone is up to about 175 km wide in areas where great interplate earthquakes have occurred in the past. Formal inversion of the data reveals that these strongly coupled patches are roughly coincident with asperities that ruptured during these events. The correlation is most spectacular for rupture of the M_w 8.7 Nias-Simeulue earthquake of 2005, which released half of the moment deficit that had accumulated since its previous rupture in 1861, suggesting that this earthquake was overdue. Beneath the Mentawai islands, strong coupling is observed within the overlapping rupture areas of the great earthquakes of 1797 and 1833. The accumulated slip deficit since these events is slowly reaching the amount of slip that occurred during the 1833 earthquake but already exceeds the slip that occurred during the 1797 earthquake. Thus, rerupture of part of the Mentawai patch in September 2007 was not a surprise. In contrast, coupling is low below the Batu islands near the equator and around Enggano island at about 5°S, where only moderate earthquakes (M_w < 8.0) have occurred in the past two centuries. The correlation of large seismic asperities with patches that are locked during the interseismic period suggests that they are persistent features. This interpretation is reinforced by the fact that the large locked patches and great ruptures occur beneath persistent geomorphologic features, the largest outer arc islands. Depth- and convergence-rate-dependent temperature might influence the pattern of coupling, through its effect on the rheology of the plate interface, but other influences are required to account for the observed along-strike heterogeneity of coupling. In particular, subduction of the Investigator Fracture Zone could be the cause for the low coupling near the equator

Structure of the central Sumatran subduction zone revealed by local earthquake travel-time tomography using an amphibious network

The Sumatran subduction zone exhibits strong seismic and tsunamogenic potential with the prominent examples of the 2004, 2005 and 2007 earthquakes. Here, we invert travel-time data of local earthquakes for vp and vp∕vs velocity models of the central Sumatran forearc. Data were acquired by an amphibious seismometer network consisting of 52 land stations and 10 ocean-bottom seismometers located on a segment of the Sumatran subduction zone that had not ruptured in a great earthquake since 1797 but witnessed recent ruptures to the north in 2005 (Nias earthquake, Mw = 8.7) and to the south in 2007 (Bengkulu earthquake, Mw = 8.5). The 2-D and 3-D vp velocity anomalies reveal the downgoing slab and the sedimentary basins. Although the seismicity pattern in the study area appears to be strongly influenced by the obliquely subducting Investigator Fracture Zone to at least 200&thinsp;km depth, the 3-D velocity model shows prevailing trench-parallel structures at depths of the plate interface. The tomographic model suggests a thinned crust below the basin east of the forearc islands (Nias, Pulau Batu, Siberut) at  ∼ 180&thinsp;km distance to the trench. vp velocities beneath the magmatic arc and the Sumatran fault zone (SFZ) are around 5&thinsp;km&thinsp;s−1 at 10&thinsp;km depth and the vp∕vs ratios in the uppermost 10&thinsp;km are low, indicating the presence of felsic lithologies typical for continental crust. We find moderately elevated vp∕vs values of 1.85 at  ∼ 150&thinsp;km distance to the trench in the region of the Mentawai Fault. vp∕vs ratios suggest an absence of large-scale alteration of the mantle wedge and might explain why the seismogenic plate interface (observed as a locked zone from geodetic data) extends below the continental forearc Moho in Sumatra. Reduced vp velocities beneath the forearc basin covering the region between the Mentawai Islands and the Sumatra mainland possibly reflect a reduced thickness of the overriding crust.</p

Implications of the diffuse deformation of the Indian Ocean lithosphere for slip partitioning of oblique plate convergence in Sumatra

Oblique plate convergence between Indian Ocean lithosphere and continental crust of the Sunda plate is distributed between subduction on the Sunda megathrust and upper plate strike-slip faulting on the Sumatran Fault Zone, in a classic example of slip partitioning. Over the last decade, a destructive series of great earthquakes has brought renewed attention to the mechanical properties of these faults and the intervening fore-arc crustal block. While observations of fore-arc deformation over the earthquake cycle indicate that the fore-arc crust is fundamentally elastic, the spatial pattern of slip vector azimuths for earthquakes sourced by rupture of the Sunda megathrust is strongly inconsistent with relative motion of two rigid plates. Permanent and distributed deformation therefore occurs in either the downgoing lithospheric slab or the overriding fore-arc crust. Previous studies have inferred from geodetic velocities and geological slip rates of the Sumatran Fault that the fore-arc crust is undergoing rapid trench-parallel stretching. Using new geological slip rates for the Sumatran Fault and an updated decadal GPS velocity field of Sumatra and the fore-arc islands, we instead show that permanent deformation within the fore-arc sliver is minor and that the Sumatran Fault is a plate boundary strike-slip fault. The kinematic data are best explained by diffuse deformation within the oceanic lithosphere of the Wharton Basin, which accommodates convergence between the Indian and Australian plates and has recently produced several large earthquakes well offshore of Sumatra. The slip partitioning system in Sumatra is fundamentally linked with the mechanical properties of the subducting oceanic lithosphere.NRF (Natl Research Foundation, S’pore)MOE (Min. of Education, S’pore)Published versio

A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence-based decision-making regarding risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time-independent forecasts of tsunami hazards at the coast using data from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500–2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting the larger maximum magnitudes. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 0.5 m at the coast is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1–10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1–1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national-scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment

The September 2009 Padang earthquake

On 30 September 2009, the city of Padang in Indonesia was rocked by an earthquake with a moment magnitude of Mw = 7.6. Despite its size, the earthquake did not rupture the Sunda megathrust and did not significantly relax the 200 years of accumulated stress on the Mentawai segment. The megathrust strain-energy budget remains substantially unchanged and the threat of a great, Mw > 8.5, tsunamigenic earthquake on the Mentawai patch is unabated

FAST TRACK PAPER: Evidence of active backthrusting at the NE Margin of Mentawai Islands, SW Sumatra

International audienceThe Indo-Australian plate subducts obliquely beneath the Sunda plate leading to a slip partitioning into pure thrust and strike-slip motion. Just in the last 5 yr, three pure thrust earthquakes of Mw > 8.4 have occurred along this subduction interface. The Great Sumatra Fault, traversing the Sumatra continental block, takes up a significant part of the strike-slip motion, but the Mentawai Fault bounding the NE margin of Mentawai Islands has been suggested to accommodate a part of the strike-slip motion. Although the great Sumatra Fault is active, no seismicity has been observed along the Mentawai fault. Using a combination of high-resolution seismic reflection and bathymetry data, here we show that the Mentawai Fault seems to be characterized by active SW dipping backthrusts. The presence of recent steeply dipping thrust earthquakes suggests that these faults should be active. Combined with results from north in 2004 earthquake region and south of this study area, our results suggest that backthrusting should play an important role in forearc evolution SW of Sumatra. We also observed several mass wasting sites at NE margin of the Mentawai Islands, which could be erosional features or landslides triggered by earthquake activities. Localized uplift along the steeply dipping backthrusts at the NE margin of Mentawai Islands in the fully locked region could pose serious seismic and tsunami risks to the SW coast of Sumatra in the future