A closed-form GARCH option pricing model

This paper develops a closed-form option pricing formula for a spot asset whose variance follows a GARCH process. The model allows for correlation between returns of the spot asset and variance and also admits multiple lags in the dynamics of the GARCH process. The single-factor (one-lag) version of this model contains Heston's (1993) stochastic volatility model as a diffusion limit and therefore unifies the discrete-time GARCH and continuous-time stochastic volatility literature of option pricing. The new model provides the first readily computed option formula for a random volatility model in which current volatility is easily estimated from historical asset prices observed at discrete intervals. Empirical analysis on S&P 500 index options shows the single-factor version of the GARCH model to be a substantial improvement over the Black-Scholes (1973) model. The GARCH model continues to substantially outperform the Black-Scholes model even when the Black-Scholes model is updated every period and uses implied volatilities from option prices, while the parameters of the GARCH model are held constant and volatility is filtered from the history of asset prices. The improvement is due largely to the ability of the GARCH model to describe the correlation of volatility with spot returns. This allows the GARCH model to capture strike-price biases in the Black-Scholes model that give rise to the skew in implied volatilities in the index options market.Econometric models ; Financial markets ; Options (Finance) ; Prices

Preference-free option pricing with path-dependent volatility: A closed-form approach

This paper shows how one can obtain a continuous-time preference-free option pricing model with a path-dependent volatility as the limit of a discrete-time GARCH model. In particular, the continuous-time model is the limit of a discrete-time GARCH model of Heston and Nandi (1997) that allows asymmetry between returns and volatility. For the continuous-time model, one can directly compute closed-form solutions for option prices using the formula of Heston (1993). Toward that purpose, we present the necessary mappings, based on Foster and Nelson (1994), such that one can approximate (arbitrarily closely) the parameters of the continuous-time model on the basis of the parameters of the discrete-time GARCH model. The discrete-time GARCH parameters can be estimated easily just by observing the history of asset prices. ; Unlike most option pricing models that are based on the absence of arbitrage alone, a parameter related to the expected return/risk premium of the asset does appear in the continuous-time option formula. However, given other parameters, option prices are not at all sensitive to the risk premium parameter, which is often imprecisely estimated.Options (Finance)

Derivatives on volatility: some simple solutions based on observables

Proposals to introduce derivatives whose payouts are explicitly linked to the volatility of an underlying asset have been around for some time. In response to these proposals, a few papers have tried to develop valuation formulae for volatility derivatives—derivatives that essentially help investors hedge the unpredictable volatility risk. This paper contributes to this nascent literature by developing closed-form/analytical formulae for prices of options and futures on volatility as well as volatility swaps. The primary contribution of this paper is that, unlike all other models, our model is empirically viable and can be easily implemented. ; More specifically, our model distinguishes itself from other proposed solutions/models in the following respects: (1) Although volatility is stochastic, it is an exact function of the observed path of asset prices. This is crucial in practice because nonobservability of volatility makes it very difficult (in fact, impossible) to arrive at prices and hedge ratios of volatility derivatives in an internally consistent fashion, as it is akin to not knowing the stock price when trying to price an equity derivative. (2) The model does not require an unobserved volatility risk premium, nor is it predicated on the strong assumption of the existence of a continuum of options of all strikes and maturities as in some papers. (3) We show how it is possible to replicate (delta hedge) volatility derivatives by trading only in the underlying asset (on whose volatility the derivative exists) and a risk-free asset. This bypasses the problem of having to trade numerously many options on the underlying asset, a hedging strategy proposed in some other models.Derivative securities ; Hedging (Finance) ; Options (Finance)

A discrete-time two-factor model for pricing bonds and interest rate derivatives under random volatility

This paper develops a discrete-time two-factor model of interest rates with analytical solutions for bonds and many interest rate derivatives when the volatility of the short rate follows a GARCH process that can be correlated with the level of the short rate itself. Besides bond and bond futures, the model yields analytical solutions for prices of European options on discount bonds (and futures) as well as other interest rate derivatives such as caps, floors, average rate options, yield curve options, etc. The advantage of our discrete-time model over continuous-time stochastic volatility models is that volatility is an observable function of the history of the spot rate and is easily (and exactly) filtered from the discrete observations of a chosen short rate/bond prices. Another advantage of our discrete-time model is that for derivatives like average rate options, the average rate can be exactly computed because, in practice, the payoff at maturity is based on the average of rates that can be observed only at discrete time intervals. ; Calibrating our two-factor model to the treasury yield curve (eight different maturities) for a few randomly chosen intervals in the period 1990–96, we find that the two-factor version does not improve (statistically and economically) upon the nested one-factor model (which is a discrete-time version of the Vasicek 1977 model) in terms of pricing the cross section of spot bonds. This occurs although the one-factor model is rejected in favor of the two-factor model in explaining the time-series properties of the short rate. However, the implied volatilities from the Black model (a one-factor model) for options on discount bonds exhibit a smirk if option prices are generated by our model using the parameter estimates obtained as above. Thus, our results indicate that the effects of random volatility of the short rate are manifested mostly in bond option prices rather than in bond prices.Bonds ; Options (Finance) ; Interest rates ; Derivative securities

The quantum Gaussian well

Different features of a potential in the form of a Gaussian well have been discussed extensively. Although the details of the calculation are involved, the general approach uses a variational method and WKB approximation, techniques which should be familiar to advanced undergraduates. A numerical solution of the Schr\"odinger equation through diagonalization has been developed in a self-contained way, and physical applications of the potential are mentioned.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures, To be published in American Journal of Physic

Pricing and hedging index options under stochastic volatility: an empirical examination

An empirical examination of the pricing and hedging performance of a stochastic volatility (SV) model with closed form solution (Heston 1993) is provided for options on the S&P 500 index in which the unobservable time varying volatility is jointly estimated with the time invariant parameters of the model. Although, out-of-sample, the mean absolute pricing error in the SV model is always lower than in the Black-Scholes model, still substantial mispricings are observed for deep out-of-the-money options. The degree of mispricing in different options classes is related to bid-ask spreads on options and options trading volume after controlling for moneyness and maturity biases. Taking into account the transactions costs (bid-ask spreads) in the options market and using S&P 500 futures to hedge, it is found that the stochastic volatility model yields lower variance for a minimum variance hedge portfolio than the Black-Scholes model for most classes of options and the differences in variances are statistically significant.Hedging (Finance) ; Options (Finance)

Asymmetric information about volatility and option markets

This paper develops a model of asymmetric information in which an investor has information regarding the future volatility of the price process of an asset but not the future asset price. It is shown that there exists an equilibrium in which the investor trades an option on the asset and expressions for the equilibrium option price and the dynamic trading strategy of the investor are derived endogenously. It is found that the expected volatility of the underlying asset increases in the net order flow in the option market. Also, the depth of the option market is smaller when there is more uncertainty about the variance of the underlying asset, which is conceptually consistent with empirical findings in the equity option market.Options (Finance) ; Financial markets

Dynamical effects in the vibrationally resolved C 2s-1 photoionization cross section ratios of Methane

The vibrationally resolved C 2s photoionization cross-section of methane was investigated both theoretically and experimentally. When compared to that of C 1s photoionization, a rather different pattern has been observed, suggesting a strong interplay between the electron diffraction and interference effects

Impact ionization of molecular oxygen by 3.5-MeV/u bare carbon ions

We have measured the absolute double-differential cross sections (DDCSs) for electron emission in ionization of O2 molecules under the impact of 3.5-MeV/u C6+ ions. The data were collected between 10 and 600 eV, in an angular range of 30◦ to 150◦. The single-differential cross sections (SDCSs) in emission angle and electron energy are deduced from the electron DDCS spectra. Also, the total cross section has been obtained from the SDCS spectra. The DDCS spectra as well as the SDCS spectra are compared with continuum distorted-wave eikonal initial-state calculations which employ molecular wave functions built as linear combinations of atomic orbitals. The DDCS ratio i.e. σO2/2σO, derived by dividing the experimental DDCS for molecular oxygen with the theoretical DDCS for atomic oxygen, does not show any primary or secondary oscillations arising from Young-type interference, which is apparently in contrast to what has been observed earlier for H2 and in agreement with the model calculation. Similarly, the forward-backward angular asymmetry increases monotonically with the velocity of the emitted electrons. However, the results on the DDCSs, SDCSs, the asymmetry parameter, and the nonexistence of oscillations are in qualitative agreement with the predictions of the model usedOne of the authors (F.M.) acknowledges the financial support from the MICINN Projects No. FIS2010-15127 and No. CSD 2007- 00010. C.A.T., R.D.R., and F.M. acknowledge the Programa de Cooperación Interuniversitaria e Investigación Científica entre España e Iberoamérica AECID Project No. A2/039631/1