Aspirin in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in the Women’s Health Study: Effect of noncompliance

Randomized evidence for aspirin in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among women is limited and suggests at most a modest effect for total CVD. Lack of compliance, however, can null-bias estimated effects. We used marginal structural models (MSMs) to estimate the etiologic effect of continuous aspirin use on CVD events among 39,876 apparently healthy female health professionals aged 45 years and older in the Women’s Health Study, a randomized trial of 100 mg aspirin every other day versus placebo. As-treated analyses and MSMs controlled for time-varying determinants of aspirin use and CVD. Predictors of aspirin use differed by randomized group and prior use and included medical history, CVD risk factors, and intermediate CVD events. Previously reported intent-to-treat analyses found small non-significant effects of aspirin on total CVD (hazard ratio (HR) =0.91, 95% confidence interval (CI) =0.81–1.03) and CVD mortality (HR=0.95, 95% CI=0.74–1.22). As-treated analyses were similar for total CVD with a slight reduction in CVD mortality (HR=0.88, 95%CI=0.67–1.16). MSMs, which adjusted for non-compliance, were similar for total CVD (HR=0.93; 95% CI: 0.81, 1.07) but suggested lower CVD mortality with aspirin use (HR = 0.76; 95% CI: 0.54, 1.08). Adjusting for non-compliance had little impact on the estimated effect of aspirin on total CVD, but strengthened the effect on CVD mortality. These results support a limited effect of low-dose aspirin on total CVD in women, but potential benefit for CVD mortality

A Randomized Trial of Low-Dose Aspirin in the Prevention of Clinical Type 2 Diabetes in Women

OBJECTIVE—Subclinical inflammation is linked with the development of type 2 diabetes, and epidemiologic data suggest that this association may be stronger in women. Although small clinical studies have shown a prominent hypoglycemic effect of short-term high-dose aspirin, no randomized trials have directly evaluated the efficacy of aspirin in diabetes prevention at doses acceptable for use in routine clinical practice. We evaluated whether chronic low-dose aspirin prevents the development of clinical diabetes among initially healthy American women

Water System Consolidation for Westinghouse Savannah River Company

Proceedings of the 1995 Georgia Water Resources Conference, April 11 and 12, 1995, Athens, Georgia.As part of a water distribution study for Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC), Metcalf & Eddy, Inc. (M&E) evaluated the potential for total or partial consolidation of the site's water supply systems. Under current operation, the site meets water demand through 28 systems serving populations from 1000 to 6000 consumers. With an overall 24-hour average water demand of 1080 gallons per minute (gpm) and peak water demands varying in each system from 10 to 750 gpm, the site area for consolidation covers approximately 300 square miles. Multiple consolidation alternatives were evaluated for consolidation of the drinking water supply. Potential shifts in population centers and area demands was an important element considered in the study. The evaluation of the alternatives considered available groundwater and surface water quality and quantity to meet the projected demand while considering capital costs, operational reliability and flexibility, and low life-cycle cost. Hydraulic analysis of the water distribution transmission lines for each alternative were modelled using an M&E digital computer modeling program. Ranking and weighting of both economic and non-economic factors allowed for a recommendation of a final alternative for consolidation. It was shown that in many cases, non-economic factors could be as important, if not more important, than economic factors.Sponsored and Organized by: U.S. Geological Survey, Georgia Department of Natural Resources, The University of Georgia, Georgia State University, Georgia Institute of TechnologyThis book was published by the Carl Vinson Institute of Government, The University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia 30602 with partial funding provided by the U.S. Department of Interior, Geological Survey, through the Georgia Water Research Institute as authorized by the Water Resources Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-397). The views and statements advanced in this publication are solely those of the authors and do not represent official views or policies of the University of Georgia or the U.S. Geological Survey or the conference sponsors

Novel genetic markers improve measures of atrial fibrillation risk prediction

Aims Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with adverse outcome. Whether recently discovered genetic risk markers improve AF risk prediction is unknown. Methods and results We derived and validated a novel AF risk prediction model from 32 possible predictors in the Women's Health Study (WHS), a cohort of 20 822 women without cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline followed prospectively for incident AF (median: 14.5 years). We then created a genetic risk score (GRS) comprised of 12 risk alleles in nine loci and assessed model performance in the validation cohort with and without the GRS. The newly derived WHS AF risk algorithm included terms for age, weight, height, systolic blood pressure, alcohol use, and smoking (current and past). In the validation cohort, this model was well calibrated with good discrimination [C-index (95% CI) = 0.718 (0.684-0.753)] and improved all reclassification indices when compared with age alone. The addition of the genetic score to the WHS AF risk algorithm model improved the C-index [0.741 (0.709-0.774); P = 0.001], the category-less net reclassification [0.490 (0.301-0.670); P < 0.0001], and the integrated discrimination improvement [0.00526 (0.0033-0.0076); P < 0.0001]. However, there was no improvement in net reclassification into 10-year risk categories of <1, 1-5, and 5+% [0.041 (−0.044-0.12); P = 0.33]. Conclusion Among women without CVD, a simple risk prediction model utilizing readily available risk markers identified women at higher risk for AF. The addition of genetic information resulted in modest improvements in predictive accuracy that did not translate into improved reclassification into discrete AF risk categorie

Novel genetic markers improve measures of atrial fibrillation risk prediction

Aims Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with adverse outcome. Whether recently discovered genetic risk markers improve AF risk prediction is unknown. Methods and results We derived and validated a novel AF risk prediction model from 32 possible predictors in the Women's Health Study (WHS), a cohort of 20 822 women without cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline followed prospectively for incident AF (median: 14.5 years). We then created a genetic risk score (GRS) comprised of 12 risk alleles in nine loci and assessed model performance in the validation cohort with and without the GRS. The newly derived WHS AF risk algorithm included terms for age, weight, height, systolic blood pressure, alcohol use, and smoking (current and past). In the validation cohort, this model was well calibrated with good discrimination [C-index (95% CI) = 0.718 (0.684–0.753)] and improved all reclassification indices when compared with age alone. The addition of the genetic score to the WHS AF risk algorithm model improved the C-index [0.741 (0.709–0.774); P = 0.001], the category-less net reclassification [0.490 (0.301–0.670); P < 0.0001], and the integrated discrimination improvement [0.00526 (0.0033–0.0076); P < 0.0001]. However, there was no improvement in net reclassification into 10-year risk categories of <1, 1–5, and 5+% [0.041 (−0.044–0.12); P = 0.33]. Conclusion: Among women without CVD, a simple risk prediction model utilizing readily available risk markers identified women at higher risk for AF. The addition of genetic information resulted in modest improvements in predictive accuracy that did not translate into improved reclassification into discrete AF risk categories

Effect of Long-Term Marine Omega-3 Fatty Acids Supplementation on the Risk of Atrial Fibrillation in Randomized Controlled Trials of Cardiovascular Outcomes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background: Some, but not all, large-scale randomized controlled trials (RCTs) investigating the effects of marine omega-3 fatty acids supplementation on cardiovascular outcomes have reported increased risks of atrial fibrillation (AF). The potential reasons for disparate findings may be dose related. Methods: The MEDLINE and Embase databases were searched for articles and abstracts published between January 1, 2012 and December 31, 2020 in addition to a meta-analysis of large cardiovascular RCTs published in 2019. RCTs of cardiovascular outcomes of marine omega-3 fatty acids that reported results for AF, either as pre-specified outcome, adverse event, or a cause for hospitalization, with a minimum sample size of 500 patients and a median followup of at least one year were included. RCTs specifically examining shorter term effects of omega-3 fatty acids on recurrent AF in patients with established AF or post-operative AF were not included. The hazard ratio (HR) for the reported AF outcomes within each trial was metaanalyzed using random-effects model with Knapp-Hartung adjustment and evaluated a doseresponse relationship with a meta-regression model. Results: Of 4049 screened records, seven studies were included in the meta-analysis. Of those, five were already detected in a previous meta-analysis of cardiovascular RCTs. Among the 81,210 patients from 7 trials, 58,939 (72.6%) were enrolled in trials testing ≤1gram per day (g/d) and 22,271 (27.4%) in trials testing >1g/d of omega-3 fatty acids. The mean age was 65 years and 31,842 (39%) were female. The weighted average follow-up was 4.9 years. In meta-analysis, the use of marine omega-3 fatty acid supplements was associated with an increased risk of AF (n=2,905; HR 1.25, 95%CI 1.07-1.46, P=0.013). In analyses stratified by dose, the HR was greater in the trials testing >1g/d (HR 1.49, 95%CI 1.04-2.15, P=0.042) as compared with those testing ≤1 g/d (HR 1.12, 95%CI 1.03-1.22, P=0.024, P for interaction1g/d

A multimarker approach to assess the influence of inflammation on the incidence of atrial fibrillation in women

Aims To assess the joint influence of inflammatory biomarkers on the risk of incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in women. Methods and results We performed a prospective cohort study among women participating in the Women's Health Study. All women were free of AF at study entry and provided a baseline blood sample assayed for high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1, and fibrinogen. To evaluate the joint effect of these three biomarkers, an inflammation score was created that ranged from 0 to 3 and reflected the number of biomarkers in the highest tertile per individual. During a median follow-up of 14.4 years, 747 of 24 734 women (3.0%) experienced a first AF event. Assessed individually, all three biomarkers were associated with incident AF, even after adjustment for traditional risk factors. When combined into an inflammation score, a strong and independent relationship between inflammation and incident AF emerged. Across increasing inflammation score categories, there were 1.66, 2.22, 2.73, and 3.25 AF events per 1000 person-years of follow-up. The corresponding hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) across inflammation score categories were 1.0, 1.22 (1.00-1.49), 1.32 (1.06-1.65), and 1.59 (1.22-2.06) (P for linear trend 0.0006) after multivariable adjustment. Conclusion In this large-scale prospective study among women without a history of cardiovascular disease, markers of systemic inflammation were significantly related to AF even after controlling for traditional risk factor

Effects of aspirin on risks of vascular events and cancer according to bodyweight and dose:analysis of individual patient data from randomised trials

Background A one-dose-fits-all approach to use of aspirin has yielded only modest benefits in long-term prevention of cardiovascular events, possibly due to underdosing in patients of large body size and excess dosing in patients of small body size, which might also affect other outcomes. Methods Using individual patient data, we analysed the modifying effects of bodyweight (10 kg bands) and height (10 cm bands) on the effects of low doses (≤100 mg) and higher doses (300–325 mg or ≥500 mg) of aspirin in randomised trials of aspirin in primary prevention of cardiovascular events. We stratified the findings by age, sex, and vascular risk factors, and validated them in trials of aspirin in secondary prevention of stroke. Additionally, we assessed whether any weight or height dependence was evident for the effect of aspirin on 20-year risk of colorectal cancer or any in-trial cancer. Results Among ten eligible trials of aspirin in primary prevention (including 117 279 participants), bodyweight varied four-fold and trial median weight ranged from 60·0 kg to 81·2 kg (pand#60;0·0001). The ability of 75–100 mg aspirin to reduce cardiovascular events decreased with increasing weight (pinteraction=0·0072), with benefit seen in people weighing 50–69 kg (hazard ratio [HR] 0·75 [95% CI 0·65–0·85]) but not in those weighing 70 kg or more (0·95 [0·86–1·04]; 1·09 [0·93–1·29] for vascular death). Furthermore, the case fatality of a first cardiovascular event was increased by low-dose aspirin in people weighing 70 kg or more (odds ratio 1·33 [95% CI 1·08–1·64], p=0·0082). Higher doses of aspirin (≥325 mg) had the opposite interaction with bodyweight (difference pinteraction=0·0013), reducing cardiovascular events only at higher weight (pinteraction=0·017). Findings were similar in men and women, in people with diabetes, in trials of aspirin in secondary prevention, and in relation to height (pinteraction=0·0025 for cardiovascular events). Aspirin-mediated reductions in long-term risk of colorectal cancer were also weight dependent (pinteraction=0·038). Stratification by body size also revealed harms due to excess dosing: risk of sudden death was increased by aspirin in people at low weight for dose (pinteraction=0·0018) and risk of all-cause death was increased in people weighing less than 50 kg who were receiving 75–100 mg aspirin (HR 1·52 [95% CI 1·04–2·21], p=0·031). In participants aged 70 years or older, the 3-year risk of cancer was also increased by aspirin (1·20 [1·03–1·47], p=0·02), particularly in those weighing less than 70 kg (1·31 [1·07–1·61], p=0·009) and consequently in women (1·44 [1·11–1·87], p=0·0069). Interpretation Low doses of aspirin (75–100 mg) were only effective in preventing vascular events in patients weighing less than 70 kg, and had no benefit in the 80% of men and nearly 50% of all women weighing 70 kg or more. By contrast, higher doses of aspirin were only effective in patients weighing 70 kg or more. Given that aspirin's effects on other outcomes, including cancer, also showed interactions with body size, a one-dose-fits-all approach to aspirin is unlikely to be optimal, and a more tailored strategy is required

Parents, but not their children, demonstrate greater delay discounting with resource scarcity

BACKGROUND: Individuals with obesity tend to discount the future (delay discounting), focusing on immediate gratification. Delay discounting is reliably related to indicators of economic scarcity (i.e., insufficient resources), including lower income and decreased educational attainment in adults. It is unclear whether the impact of these factors experienced by parents also influence child delay discounting between the ages of 8 and 12-years in families with obesity. METHODS: The relationship between indices of family income and delay discounting was studied in 452 families with parents and 6-12-year-old children with obesity. Differences in the relationships between parent economic, educational and Medicaid status, and parent and child delay discounting were tested. RESULTS: Results showed lower parent income (p = 0.019) and Medicaid status (p = 0.021) were differentially related to greater parent but not child delay discounting among systematic responders. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest differences in how indicators of scarcity influence delay discounting for parents and children, indicating that adults with scarce resources may be shaped to focus on immediate needs instead of long-term goals. It is possible that parents can reduce the impact of economic scarcity on their children during preadolescent years. These findings suggest a need for policy change to alleviate the burden of scarce conditions and intervention to modify delay discounting rate and to improve health-related choices and to address weight disparities

Estimating treatment effects for individual patients based on the results of randomised clinical trials

Objectives To predict treatment effects for individual patients based on data from randomised trials, taking rosuvastatin treatment in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease as an example, and to evaluate the net benefit of making treatment decisions for individual patients based on a predicted absolute treatment effect