Report on an experiment in five-day weather forecasting

The following report is presented as a statement of progress made at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (M.I.T.) in the investigation into the possibility of extending the range of reliable weather forecasts. This project has been supported at M.I.T. and other private institutions by Bankhead-Jones appropriations since September, 1937. This report is concerned only with the work completed or in progress at M.I.T. The complementary program now in progress at the Weather Bureau in Washington is referred to only in so far as it has contributed directly to these investigations. Furthermore, the following report refers only to the last two years of the M.I.T. project. The first year of the three-year project was given over principally to the study of the results obtained by long range forecast methods already in use, and to the establishment of a northern hemisphere synoptic weather map procedure as a necessary precedent to the preparation of weekly forecasts on a synoptic basis. The results of the M.I.T. study of certain long range forecast methods already in practice are included in a general survey of such methods already published. The synoptic charts prepared at M.I.T. during that first year of the investigation are listed in an appendix to this report, together with those of the last two years. The preparation of weekly forecasts carried on during a part of that first year was so experimental in nature, and the procedure was so much changed the following year, that the results obtained were considered neither suffciently significant nor comparable enough with the later forecast results to merit any discussion. The present report is divided into three principal sections. Section I presents in condensed form our present conception of the essential nature of the general circulation, and discusses briefly the background of one or two of Professor Rossby's theoretical considerations concerning the general circulation which have found statistical and synoptic application in this investigation. Section II contains in brief form the results of synoptic and statistical checks of a large number of hypothetical relationships which might be assumed to hold in the earth's atmosphere. These include possible relationships in the large scale features of the general circulation, relationships between the general circulation and its different branches or centers of action, between the different branches or centers of action of the general circulation, between characteristics of the general circulation or its branches and anomalies of the meteorological elements in certain regions, between anomalies of the meteorological elements in one region and those in another region, and even between solar activity (sunspots) and characteristics of the general circulation or anomalies of the meteorological elements. The aim was to investigate possible interrelationships of all kinds, either with or without lag, in order to detect as many interaction principles or points as possible in the earth's atmosphere, whether they had direct or only the most indirect bearing on the forecast problem. The relationships investigated applied to daily, weekly, monthly, seasonal, or annual mean conditions. They were selected for investigation either from theoretical or practical considerations of the nature of the general circulation as outlined in Section I, or on the basis of popular beliefs which have long been current among meteorologists, or on the basis of direct observation of data which looked promising. The majority of these hypothetical relationships are found to be quite weak when subjected to rigid statistical checks, but all such results, whether positive or negative, are summarized in this report. Section III outlines the five-day forecast routine practice which has been carried on at M.I.T. during the greater part of the past two years on a weekly basis. It includes a statistical analysis of the verification results. In the conclusion are summarized the results of the investigation which thus far appear significant enough to justify their consideration in five-day or longer range forecasts. Suggestions are offered as to further steps which might profitably be taken if the investigation is to be continued. Finally there is an appendix in which are listed all the daily synoptic maps and mean charts and diagrams of surface and upper air data which have been plotted and analyzed at M.I.T. in connection with this project during the past three years. The importance of such a list is apparent when it is realized that inevitably in an investigation of this kind much the greater part of the time and effort expended is consumed in the routine or semiroutine duties involved in the preparation of such charts

Relation between variations in the intensity of the zonal circulation of the atmosphere and the displacements of the permanent centers of action atmosphere and the displacements of the permanent centers of action

This paper attempts to interpret, from a single point of view, several at first sight independent phenomena brought into focus through the synoptic investigations carried on at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology during the last few years…

Linear canonical transformations and quantum phase:a unified canonical and algebraic approach

The algebra of generalized linear quantum canonical transformations is examined in the prespective of Schwinger's unitary-canonical basis. Formulation of the quantum phase problem within the theory of quantum canonical transformations and in particular with the generalized quantum action-angle phase space formalism is established and it is shown that the conceptual foundation of the quantum phase problem lies within the algebraic properties of the quantum canonical transformations in the quantum phase space. The representations of the Wigner function in the generalized action-angle unitary operator pair for certain Hamiltonian systems with the dynamical symmetry are examined. This generalized canonical formalism is applied to the quantum harmonic oscillator to examine the properties of the unitary quantum phase operator as well as the action-angle Wigner function.Comment: 19 pages, no figure

X-ray Coherent diffraction interpreted through the fractional Fourier transform

Diffraction of coherent x-ray beams is treated through the Fractionnal Fourier transform. The transformation allow us to deal with coherent diffraction experiments from the Fresnel to the Fraunhofer regime. The analogy with the Huygens-Fresnel theory is first discussed and a generalized uncertainty principle is introduced.Comment: 7 pages, 8 figure

Hertz potentials approach to the dynamical Casimir effect in cylindrical cavities of arbitrary section

We study the creation of photons in resonant cylindrical cavities with time dependent length. The physical degrees of freedom of the electromagnetic field are described using Hertz potentials. We describe the general formalism for cavities with arbitrary section. Then we compute explicitly the number of TE and TM motion-induced photons for cylindrical cavities with rectangular and circular sections. We also discuss the creation of TEM photons in non-simply connected cylindrical cavities.Comment: 13 pages, 3 figures, revtex

Obesity Is Not Associated with Antimicrobial Treatment Failure for Intra-Abdominal Infection

Background: Obesity and commonly associated comorbidities are known risk factors for the development of infections. However, the intensity and duration of antimicrobial treatment are rarely conditioned on body mass index (BMI). In particular, the influence of obesity on failure of antimicrobial treatment for intra-abdominal infection (IAI) remains unknown. We hypothesized that obesity is associated with recurrent infectious complications in patients treated for IAI. Methods: Five hundred eighteen patients randomized to treatment in the Surgical Infection Society Study to Optimize Peritoneal Infection Therapy (STOP-IT) trial were evaluated. Patients were stratified by obese (BMI ≥30) versus non-obese (BMI≥30) status. Descriptive comparisons were performed using Chi-square test, Fisher exact test, or Wilcoxon rank-sum tests as appropriate. Multivariable logistic regression using a priori selected variables was performed to assess the independent association between obesity and treatment failure in patients with IAI. Results: Overall, 198 (38.3%) of patients were obese (BMI ≥30) versus 319 (61.7%) who were non-obese. Mean antibiotic d and total hospital d were similar between both groups. Unadjusted outcomes of surgical site infection (9.1% vs. 6.9%, p?=?0.36), recurrent intra-abdominal infection (16.2% vs. 13.8, p?=?0.46), death (1.0% vs. 0.9%, p?=?1.0), and a composite of all complications (25.3% vs. 19.8%, p?=?0.14) were also similar between both groups. After controlling for appropriate demographics, comorbidities, severity of illness, treatment group, and duration of antimicrobial therapy, obesity was not independently associated with treatment failure (c-statistic: 0.64). Conclusions: Obesity is not associated with antimicrobial treatment failure among patients with IAI. These results suggest that obesity may not independently influence the need for longer duration of antimicrobial therapy in treatment of IAI versus non-obese patients.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/140219/1/sur.2015.213.pd

Seasonal prediction skill of winter temperature over North India

This document is the Accepted Manuscript version of the following article: Tiwari, P.R., Kar, S.C., Mohanty, U.C. et al. Theor Appl Climatol (2016) 124: 15. The final publication is available at Springer via https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1397-y. © Springer-Verlag Wien 2015.The climatology, amplitude error, phase error, and mean square skill score (MSSS) of temperature predictions from five different state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) have been examined for the winter (December–January– February) seasons over North India. In this region, temperature variability affects the phenological development processes of wheat crops and the grain yield. The GCM forecasts of temperature for a whole season issued in November from various organizations are compared with observed gridded temperature data obtained from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the period 1982–2009. The MSSS indicates that the models have skills of varying degrees. Predictions of maximum and minimum temperature obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climate forecast system model (NCEP_CFSv2) are compared with station level observations from the Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE). It has been found that when the model temperatures are corrected to account the bias in the model and actual orography, the predictions are able to delineate the observed trend compared to the trend without orography correction.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Tendencies, variability and persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies

Quantifying global trends and variability in sea surface temperature (SST) is of fundamental importance to understanding changes in the Earth’s climate. One approach to observing SST is via remote sensing. Here we use a 37-year gap-filled, daily-mean analysis of satellite SSTs to quantify SST trends, variability and persistence between 1981-2018. The global mean warming trend is 0.08 K per decade globally, with 95 % of local trends being between -0.1 K and +0.35 K. Excluding perennial sea-ice regions, the mean warming trend is 0.11 K per decade. After removing the long-term trend we calculate the SST power spectra over different time periods. The maximum variance in the SST power spectra in the equatorial Pacific is 1.9 K2 on 1-5 year timescales, dominated by ENSO processes. In western boundary currents characterised by an intense mesoscale activity, SST power on sub-annual timescales dominates, with a maximum variance of 4.9 K2. Persistence timescales tend to be shorter in the summer hemisphere due to the shallower mixed layer. The median short-term persistence length is 11-14 days, found over 71-79 % of the global ocean area, with seasonal variations. The mean global correlation between monthly SST anomalies with a three-month time-lag is 0.35, with statistically significant correlations over 54.0 % of the global oceans, and notably in the northern and equatorial Pacific, and the sub-polar gyre south of Greenland. At six months, the mean global SST anomaly correlation falls to 0.18. The satellite data record enables the detailed characterisation of temporal changes in SST over almost four decades