MODELING & FORECASTING OF MACRO-ECONOMIC VARIABLES OF INDIA: BEFORE, DURING & AFTER RECESSION

This paper examines the state of the Indian economy pre, during and post-recession by analysing various macro-economic factors such as GDP, exchange rate, inflation, capital markets and fiscal deficit. We forecast some of the major economic variables using ARIMA modelling and present a picture of the Indian economy in the coming years. The findings indicate that Indian economy is reviving after a slowdown during the period of global recession. It is forecasted that GDP, foreign investments, fiscal deficit and capital markets will rise in 2010-11. Furthermore, the rupee-dollar exchange rates will not change much during the same period.ARIMA, Box-Jenkins, Indian economy, forecasting

Reappraising the Role of Eplerenone in the Management of Heart Failure

Background: In India, the prevalence of heart failure (HF) is increasing at 1.2/1,000 people according to a study in northern India, and the mortality rate at 1 year (INTERnational Congestive Heart Failure [INTER-CHF]) is 37%. Due to the diverse phenotypes of HF, nonadherence to guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT), resistance to uptitration of medication and underuse of mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs), such as eplerenone, a uniform management approach may not be feasible. This review is aimed at assessing the burden of HF, reasons for underutilization of MRAs in treatment, evaluating the evidence and reappraising the disease-modifying role of eplerenone in HF management. Methods: An electronic database search was performed to identify relevant literature. Results: The review details various studies that demonstrate the role of MRA eplerenone as a disease-modifying agent in patients with mild-to-moderate hypertension and those with acute myocardial infarction (MI) complicated by left ventricular dysfunction and HF. It also outlines different patient profiles for eplerenone use and ways to handle minor side-effects. Conclusions: Eplerenone shows a promising effect in selectively blocking aldosterone receptors to suppress fibrosis and reverse cardiac remodeling

Modeling & Forecasting of Macro-Economic Variables of India: Before, During & After Recession

This paper examines the state of the Indian economy pre, during and post recession by analyzing various macro economic factors such as GDP, exchange rate, inflation, capital markets and fiscal deficit. We forecast some of the major economic variables using ARIMA modeling and present a picture of the Indian economy in the coming years. The findings indicate that Indian economy is reviving after a slowdown during the period of global recession. It is forecasted that GDP, foreign investments, fiscal deficit and capital markets will rise in 2010-11. Furthermore, the rupee-dollar exchange rate will not change much during the same period

Modeling & Forecasting of Macro-Economic Variables of India: Before, During & After Recession

This paper examines the state of the Indian economy pre, during and post recession by analyzing various macro economic factors such as GDP, exchange rate, inflation, capital markets and fiscal deficit. We forecast some of the major economic variables using ARIMA modeling and present a picture of the Indian economy in the coming years. The findings indicate that Indian economy is reviving after a slowdown during the period of global recession. It is forecasted that GDP, foreign investments, fiscal deficit and capital markets will rise in 2010-11. Furthermore, the rupee-dollar exchange rate will not change much during the same period

Association of serum lipids and coronary artery disease with polymorphisms in the Apolipoprotein AI-CIII-AIV gene cluster

Genetic variants are considered as one of the main determinants of the concentration of serum lipids and coronary artery disease (CAD). Polymorphisms in the Apolipoprotein (Apo) AI-CIII-AIV gene cluster has been known to affect the concentrations of various lipid sub-fractions and the risk of CAD. The present study assessed associations between polymorphisms of the Apo AI-CIII-AIV gene cluster, [ApoA-I,-75G > A, (rs1799837); ApoC-III 3238C > G, (SstI), (rs5128) and ApoA-IV, Thr347Ser(347A > T), (rs675)] with serum lipids and their contributions to CAD in North Indian population. We recruited age, sex matched, 200 CAD patients and 200 healthy controls and tested them for fasting levels of serum lipids. We genotyped selected polymorphisms using polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism. There were no statistically significant association of selected polymorphisms (or their combinations) with CAD even after employing additive, dominant and recessive models. However there was significant association of selected polymorphisms with various lipid traits amongst the control cohort (p < 0.05). Mean levels of high density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides were found to be significantly higher among controls carrying at least one mutant allele at ApoA1- 75G > A (p = 0.019) and ApoCIII SstI (p < 0.001) polymorphism respectively. Our study observed that the selected polymorphisms in the ApoAI-CIII-AIV gene cluster although significantly affect various lipid traits but this affect does not seem to translate into association with CAD, at least among North Indian population

Association of methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) C677T and A1298C polymorphisms with coronary artery disease (CAD) in a North Indian population

There is significant variation in reported associations of the MTHFR C677T (rs1801133) and A1298C (rs1801131) polymorphisms and coronary artery disease (CAD) in different global populations. This study aims to identify any individual or combined associations between the 1298 and 677 loci of MTHFR and CAD in a North Indian population. A total of 159 patients and 166 controls were genotyped using validated TaqMan assays. Odds ratio analysis identified associations at crude level and multiple logistic regression controlled for confounding variables. Linkage disequilibrium between the loci was assessed along with haplotype association analysis. At the C677T locus, homozygosity of the T allele identified a significantly protective association (OR = 0.38, CI: 0.24–0.60). For the A1298C locus the AC genotype had a protective effect in codominant model (OR = 0.53, CI: 0.32–0.85) and CC genotype showed a susceptible association in recessive model when controlled for age, sex and lipids (OR = 2.70, CI: 1.27–5.77). This study identified that, independently, both heterozygous genotypes show a protective association with CAD. In addition the CC genotype of A1298C in recessive model was a susceptible genotype. The combined associations of MTHFR are protective (primarily due to the effects of C677T locus) suggesting an interaction between the loci and their associations with CAD within this sample

Genetic association of pro-inflammatory cytokine gene polymorphisms with coronary artery disease (CAD) in a North Indian population

Background: Cytokines regulate the expression of inflammatory molecules which destabilize the atheromatic plaques. This study focuses on studying the association of inflammatory cytokine polymorphisms like TNF-α -308 (G/A), TNF-β +252 (A/G), IL-6 -174 (G/C) and IL-6 -597 (G/A), and IFN-ɣ +874 (T/A) with coronary artery disease (CAD) among north Indian patients. Materials and methods: 143 CAD and 137 normal healthy controls were recruited in this study. DNA extraction was carried out by high salting out method. TNF-α -308 (G/A) (rs1800797), TNF-β +252 (A/G) (rs909253), IL-6 -174 (G/C) (rs1800795), IL6 -597 (G/A) (rs1800797), and IFN-ɣ +874 (T/A) (rs2430561) SNPs were genotyped by TaqMan®SNP genotyping assays. Different statistical analyses were performed using SPSS v 22.0 and SNPStats. p≤0.05 was considered significant. Results: Significant risk association with CAD was found for TNF-α -308 (G/A) “A” allele (OR =5.6, CI 1.8-17.4, p=0.001) and TNF-β +252 (A/G) “G” allele (OR=3.4, CI=1.9-6.0, p<0.001). However, no statistical significance was found for IL-6 -174 (G/C) or IL6 -597 (G/A), with CAD. TNF-α -308 (G/A), and TNF-β +252 (A/G) haplotype “GG” “AG” increased CAD risk significantly (GG haplotype, adjusted OR = 2.6, CI 1.4-5.0, p=0.003 and AG haplotype OR =8.5, CI 2.2-33.35, p=0.002) after adjustments for age, sex, TC, TG, HDL, APOB, smoking and diet. Discussion: The present study found significant risk association for TNF-α -308 (G/A), and TNF-β +252 (A/G) genotypes, alleles and haplotypes, with CAD in a North Indian Population

Paraoxonase 1 GENE polymorphisms contribute to coronary artery disease risk

Polymorphisms in paraoxonase 1 (PON1) coding for PON1 enzyme have been studied as genetic markers of coronary artery disease (CAD). PON1 Q192R and PON1 L55M polymorphisms have been analyzed extensively, but data on association and role of these polymorphisms in the etiology of CAD are conflicting. In this study, we tested the genetic association between PON1 Q192R and PON1 L55M polymorphisms and CAD among north Indians. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two hundred eighty-five angiographically proven patients with coronary artery disease and 200 sex-matched and ethnically matched controls were genotyped for 2 PON1 polymorphisms by the polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) technique. Genotype/ allele frequencies were compared in patients and controls using the chi-square test. RESULTS: At PON1-192 locus, there were significant differences between patients and controls (P< 0.05), leading to significant odds ratios for RR genotype (OR= 1.92, CI: 1.19-3.10) and *R allele (OR= 1.30, CI: 1.00-1.70). These odds ratios were higher in the sub-sample of smokers (2.84 and 1.45, respectively). Binary logistic regression analysis also confirmed that *R allele carriers (QR and RR) have a higher risk of CAD (OR= 3.54, CI: 1.67-5.53). PON1-55 locus did not show significant differences between patients and controls, but LL genotype and *L allele were significant risk factors in the nonsmoker group. RL haplotype was also significantly associated with CAD risk (OR= 1.44, CI: 1.08-1.93). CONCLUSIONS: PON1-192R allele and RR genotype are significantly associated with CAD patients from the north Indian population (Uttar Pradesh). This association was stronger in smokers, supporting the conclusion that an interaction between PON1 activity and smoking augments CAD risk. Further studies with larger sample size are warranted to confirm these associations in different Indian populations

Assessment of left ventricular systolic and diastolic function in juvenile rheumatoid arthritis

Background and Aims: Recognizing the paucity of data regarding echocardiographic studies of Left ventricular (LV) systolic and diastolic function in patients with juvenile rheumatoid arthritis (JRA), a study was carried out to study these parameters in these subjects. Settings, Design and Methods: Thirty-five patients with JRA and an equal number of age- and sex-matched controls were studied by two-dimensional and Doppler echocardiography. Results: Patients with JRA had higher systolic and diastolic blood pressures, resting heart rates, LV systolic (26.9\ub14.3 vs. 22.4 \ub1 4.1 mm, p=0.001) and diastolic size (42.3\ub14.6 vs. 35.4\ub13.8 mm, p&lt;0.001) and volumes. Though ejection fraction (EF) and fractional shortening (FS) were normal, they were lower in those with JRA as compared to controls (EF: 62.9\ub14.47 vs. 67.5\ub13.63 %, p&lt;0.001; FS: 36.4\ub14.5 vs. 38.5 \ub1 6.87, p=0.2). On Doppler analysis the JRA group had lower peak E velocity, higher peak A velocity, higher A VTI and more prolonged IVRT. Male patients had higher A VTI and IVRT as compared to females. Those with longer duration of disease had larger LV systolic (r=0.517, p=0.01) and diastolic dimension (r=0.40, p=0.05) and lower FS (r=-0.506, p=0.01). Patients with polyarticular JRA had higher E and A VTI as compared to those with systemic or oligoarticular types. Conclusion: Despite an asymptomatic cardiac status, significant systolic and diastolic functional abnormalities exist in patients with JRA. The duration of the disease, mode of presentation, patient's age and gender have a significant impact on the left ventricular systolic and diastolic functions in patients with JRA