Effects of Adolescent Victimization on Offending: Flexible Methods for Missing Data & Unmeasured Confounding

The causal link between victimization and violence later in life is largely accepted but has been understudied for victimized adolescents. In this work we use the Add Health dataset, the largest nationally representative longitudinal survey of adolescents, to estimate the relationship between victimization and future offending in this population. To accomplish this, we derive a new doubly robust estimator for the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) when the treatment and outcome are not always observed. We then find that the offending rate among victimized individuals would have been 3.86 percentage points lower if none of them had been victimized (95% CI: [0.28, 7.45]). This contributes positive evidence of a causal effect of victimization on future offending among adolescents. We further present statistical evidence of heterogeneous effects by age, under which the ATT decreases according to the age at which victimization is experienced. We then devise a novel risk-ratio-based sensitivity analysis and conclude that our results are robust to modest unmeasured confounding. Finally, we show that the found effect is mainly driven by non-violent offending

Trajectories of Childhood Sexual Abuse and Early Adolescent HIV/AIDS Risk Behaviors: The Role of Other Maltreatment, Witnessed Violence, and Child Gender

Childhood sexual abuse (CSA) has been associated with HIV/AIDS risk behavior; however, much of this work is retrospective and focuses on women. The current study used semiparametric mixture modeling with youth (n = 844; 48.8% boys) from the Longitudinal Studies of Child Abuse and Neglect (LONGSCAN) to examine the link between trajectories of CSA (2 to 12 y.o.) and HIV/AIDS risk behavior at age 14 (i.e., sexual intercourse & alcohol use). Trajectory analyses revealed a link between a history of CSA and the development of risky behavior. In addition, trajectories for physical and emotional abuse, but not neglect or witnessed violence, contributed to risky behavior over and above the role of CSA. Child gender did not moderate the findings. Findings highlight the signficance of CSA histories, as well as the broader context of maltreatment, for better understanding the development of risk behaviors in both girls and boys

Development of aggression subtypes from childhood to adolescence:a group-based multi-trajectory modelling perspective

The persistence of elevated subtypes of aggression beginning in childhood have been associated with long-term maladaptive outcomes. Yet it remains unclear to what extent there are clusters of individuals following similar developmental trajectories across forms (i.e., physical and indirect) and functions (i.e., proactive and reactive) of aggression. We aimed to identify groups of children with distinct profiles of the joint development of forms and functions of aggression and to identify risk factors for group membership. A sample of 787 children was followed from birth to adolescence. Parent and teacher reports, and standardised assessments were used to measure two forms and two functions of aggressive behaviour, between six and 13 years of age along with preceding child, maternal, and family-level risk-factors. Analyses were conducted using a group-based multi-trajectory modelling approach. Five trajectory groups emerged: non-aggressors, low-stable, moderate-engagers, high-desisting, and high-chronic. Coercive parenting increased membership risk in the moderate-engagers and high-chronic groups. Lower maternal IQ increased membership risk in both high-desisting and high-chronic groups, whereas maternal depression increased membership risk in the high-desisting group only. Never being breastfed increased membership risk in the moderate-engagers group. Boys were at greater risk for belonging to groups displaying elevated aggression. Individuals with chronic aggression problems use all subtypes of aggression. Risk factors suggest that prevention programs should start early in life and target mothers with lower IQ. Strategies to deal with maternal depression and enhance positive parenting while replacing coercive parenting tactics should be highlighted in programming efforts

The effects of “pulling levers” focused deterrence strategies on crime

A number of American police departments have been experimenting with new problem-oriented policing frameworks to prevent gang and group-involved violence generally known as the “pulling levers” focused deterrence strategies. Focused deterrence strategies honor core deterrence ideas, such as increasing risks faced by offenders, while finding new and creative ways of deploying traditional and non-traditional law enforcement tools to do so, such as directly communicating incentives and disincentives to targeted offenders. Pioneered in Boston to halt serious gang violence, the focused deterrence framework has been applied in many American cities through federally sponsored violence prevention programs. In its simplest form, the approach consists of selecting a particular crime problem, such as gang homicide; convening an interagency working group of law enforcement, social-service, and community-based practitioners; conducting research to identify key offenders, groups, and behavior patterns; framing a response to offenders and groups of offenders that uses a varied menu of sanctions (“pulling levers”) to stop them from continuing their violent behavior; focusing social services and community resources on targeted offenders and groups to match law enforcement prevention efforts; and directly and repeatedly communicating with offenders to make them understand why they are receiving this special attention. These new strategic approaches have been applied to a range of crime problems, such as overt drug markets and individual repeat offenders, and have shown promising results in the reduction of crime. Objectives: To synthesize the extant evaluation literature and assess the effects of pulling levers focused deterrence strategies on crime. Conclusions: We conclude that pulling levers focused deterrence strategies seem to be effective in reducing crime. However, we urge caution in interpreting these results because of the lack of more rigorous randomized controlled trials in the existing body of scientific evidence on this approach