Towards an Agent-based, Integrated Land-use Transport Modeling System

AbstractThis paper reports on initial steps of an integration of the microscopic land-use simulation system SILO (Simple Integrated Land- Use Orchestrator) and the agent-based transport simulation system MATSim (Multi-Agent Transport Simulation). It is shown how information can be transferred from the land-use model to the transport model in an agent-oriented fashion and how MATSim can be used as a transport model within the SILO framework in lieu of an aggregate transport model, which SILO has been coupled with up to now. It is shown that results of the previous model structure can be reproduced by the new fully microscopic modeling system based on SILO and MATSim. It is discussed how an agent-based transfer of information can also be established in the reverse direction, i.e. from the transport model to the land-use model based on the implementation of a query architecture. Finally, it is discussed how an integration of SILO and MATSim can help addressing additional current demands for research

Maintaining Mobility in Substantial Urban Growth Futures

Integrated land use/transport models traditionally follow a simple integration concept: The land use model provides the origins and destinations of trips, and the travel demand model provides aggregate travel times between zones. High levels of congestion and the limitation of travel budgets, however, require travelers to scrutinize travel options and housing locations more carefully. In this paper, a microscopic integration of land use and transport models is proposed that - for the first time - is capable of capturing travel times and constraints at the level of the individual traveler. This level of integration allows choosing housing locations from which workplaces of all household members are accessible. In addition, discretionary travel can be limited to a household's travel budget after mandatory trips have been completed. The model is expected to represent travel and housing location choice constraints more realistically under high congestion/high cost scenarios

Prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. Validation and ranking of established staging-systems in a large western HCC-cohort.

HCC is diagnosed in approximately half a million people per year, worldwide. Staging is a more complex issue than in most other cancer entities and, mainly due to unique geographic characteristics of the disease, no universally accepted staging system exists to date. Focusing on survival rates we analyzed demographic, etiological, clinical, laboratory and tumor characteristics of HCC-patients in our institution and applied the common staging systems. Furthermore we aimed at identifying the most suitable of the current staging systems for predicting survival. Overall, 405 patients with HCC were identified from an electronic medical record database. The following seven staging systems were applied and ranked according to their ability to predict survival by using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the concordance-index (c-index): BCLC, CLIP, GETCH, JIS, Okuda, TNM and Child-Pugh. Separately, every single variable of each staging system was tested for prognostic meaning in uni- and multivariate analysis. Alcoholic cirrhosis (44.4%) was the leading etiological factor followed by viral hepatitis C (18.8%). Median survival was 18.1 months (95%-CI: 15.2-22.2). Ascites, bilirubin, alkaline phosphatase, AFP, number of tumor nodes and the BCLC tumor extension remained independent prognostic factors in multivariate analysis. Overall, all of the tested staging systems showed a reasonable discriminatory ability. CLIP (closely followed by JIS) was the top-ranked score in terms of prognostic capability with the best values of the AIC and c-index (AIC 2286, c-index 0.71), surpassing other established staging systems like BCLC (AIC 2343, c-index 0.66). The unidimensional scores TNM (AIC 2342, c-index 0.64) and Child-Pugh (AIC 2369, c-index 0.63) performed in an inferior fashion. Compared with six other staging systems, the CLIP-score was identified as the most suitable staging system for predicting prognosis in a large German cohort of predominantly non-surgical HCC-patients

Perturbative Renormalization in Quantum Mechanics

Some quantum mechanical potentials, singular at short distances, lead to ultraviolet divergences when used in perturbation theory. Exactly as in quantum field theories, but much simpler, regularization and renormalization lead to finite physical results, which compare correctly to the exact ones. The Dirac delta potential, because of its relevance to triviality, and the Aharonov-Bohm potential, because ot its relevance to anyons, are used as examples here.Comment: LATEX, 13 pages, UB-ECM-PF 19-9

The end of travel time matrices: Individual travel times in integrated land use/transport models

To reduce inaccuracies due to insufficient spatial resolution of models, it has been suggested to use smaller raster cells instead of larger zones. Increasing the number of zones, however, increases the size of a matrix to store travel times, called skim tables in transport modeling. Those become difficult to create, to store and to read, while most of the origin-destination pairs are calculated and stored but never used. At the same time, such approaches do not solve inaccuracies due to lack of temporal resolution. This paper analyzes the use of personalized travel times at the finest spatial resolution possible (at x/y coordinates) and a detailed temporal resolution for synthetic agents. The approach is tested in the context of an existing integrated land use/transport model (ILUT) where travel times affect, among others, household relocation decisions. In this paper, person-level individual travel times are compared to traditional skim-based travel times to identify the extent of errors caused by spatial and temporal aggregation and how they affect relocation decisions in the model. It was shown that skim-based travel times fail to capture the spatial and temporal variations of travel times available at a microscopic scale of an agent-based ILUT model. Skims may provide acceptable averages for car travel times if a dense network and small zones are used. Transit travel times, however, suffer from temporal and spatial aggregation of skims. When analyzing travel-time-dependent relocation decisions in the land use model, transit captive households tend to react more sensitively to the transit level of service when individual travel times are used. The findings add to the existing literature a quantification of spatial biases in ILUT models and present a novel approach to overcome them. The presented methodology eliminates the impact of the chosen zone system on model results, and thereby, avoids biases caused by the modifiable spatial unit problem.EC/FP7/291763/EU/TUM-IAS Fellowships for the cooperative development of high risk new fields in technology and science/RiskingCreativit

Circulating cell-free methylated DNA and lactate dehydrogenase release in colorectal cancer

Background: Hypermethylation of DNA is an epigenetic alteration commonly found in colorectal cancer (CRC) and can also be detected in blood samples of cancer patients. Methylation of the genes helicase-like transcription factor (HLTF) and hyperplastic polyposis 1 (HPP1) have been proposed as prognostic, and neurogenin 1 (NEUROG1) as diagnostic biomarker. However the underlying mechanisms leading to the release of these genes are unclear. This study aimed at examining the possible correlation of the presence of methylated genes NEUROG1, HLTF and HPP1 in serum with tissue breakdown as a possible mechanism using serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) as a surrogate marker. Additionally the prognostic impact of these markers was examined. Methods: Pretherapeutic serum samples from 259 patients from all cancer stages were analyzed. Presence of hypermethylation of the genes HLTF, HPP1, and NEUROG1 was examined using methylation-specific quantitative PCR (MethyLight). LDH was determined using an UV kinetic test. Results: Hypermethylation of HLTF and HPP1 was detected significantly more often in patients with elevated LDH levels (32% vs. 12% {[}p = 0.0005], and 68% vs. 11% {[}p < 0.0001], respectively). Also, higher LDH values correlated with a higher percentage of a fully methylated reference in a linear fashion (Spearman correlation coefficient 0.18 for HLTF {[}p = 0.004]; 0.49 {[}p <.0001] for HPP1). No correlation between methylation of NEUROG1 and LDH was found in this study. Concerning the clinical characteristics, high levels of LDH as well as methylation of HLTF and HPP1 were significantly associated with larger and more advanced stages of CRC. Accordingly, these three markers were correlated with significantly shorter survival in the overall population. Moreover, all three identified patients with a worse prognosis in the subgroup of stage IV patients. Conclusions: We were able to provide evidence that methylation of HLTF and especially HPP1 detected in serum is strongly correlated with cell death in CRC using LDH as surrogate marker. Additionally, we found that prognostic information is given by both HLTF and HPP1 as well as LDH. In sum, determining the methylation of HLTF and HPP1 in serum might be useful in order to identify patients with more aggressive tumors

Optimal Route Assignment in Large Scale Micro-Simulations

Traffic management and route guidance are optimization problems by nature. In this article, we consider algorithms for centralized route guidance and discuss fairness aspects for the individual user resulting from optimal route guidance policies. The first part of this article deals with the mathematical aspects of these optimization problems from the viewpoint of network flow theory. We present algorithms which solve the constrained multicommodity minimum cost flow problem (CMCF) to optimality. A feasible routing is given by a flow x, and the cost of flow x is the total travel time spent in the network. The corresponding optimum is a restricted system optimum with a globally controlled constrained or fairness factor . This approach implements a compromise between user equilibrium and system optimum. The goal is to find a route guidance strategy which minimizes global and community criteria with individual needs as constraints. The fairness factor L restricts the set of all feasible routes to the subset of acceptable routes. This might include the avoidance of routes which are much longer than shortest routes, the exclusion of certain streets, preferences for scenic paths, or restrictions on the number of turns to be taken. Most remarkably is that the subset of acceptable routes can also be interpreted as a mental map of routes. ()cx1L> In the second part we apply our CMCF algorithms in a large scale multi-agent transportation simulation toolkit, which is called MATSIM-T. We use as initial routes the ones computed by our CMCF algorithms. This choice of initial routes makes it possible to exploit the optimization potential within the simulation much better then it was done before. The result is a speed up of the iteration process in the simulation. We compare the existing simulation toolkit with the new integration of CMCF to proof our results

Ten-year follow-up results from the Goettingen Risk, Incidence and Prevalence Study (GRIPS), I: risk factors for myocardial infarction in a cohort of 5790 men. Atherosclerosis

Abstract Besides the accepted major risk factors for myocardial infarction (MI), cholesterol, hypertension and smoking, several other variables such as lipoproteins, apolipoproteins, fibrinogen and family history of MI, have been considered, but their usefulness as predictors of MI is controversially discussed. The Gö ttingen Risk Incidence and Prevalence Study (GRIPS) aimed to evaluate the independent impact of the latter in comparison to the established risk factors. GRIPS is a prospective cohort study, which included 5790 men, aged 40-59.9 years, without cardiovascular disease at baseline. Multivariate logistic regression models for the estimation of the MI risk based on the 10-year follow-up data from 97.4% of the study participants established LDL cholesterol as the strongest predictor of MI. It was followed by family history of MI, Lp(a), age, smoking, systolic blood pressure, HDL cholesterol (inversely related) and plasma glucose (PB0.00l). Apolipoprotein B as well as the ratios total/HDL cholesterol, LDL/HDL cholesterol and Apo B/AI were less effective predictors than LDL cholesterol and did not contribute independently to the estimation of MI risk. Similarly apoprotein AI was a weaker predictor of MI risk then HDL cholesterol. GRIPS is the first prospective cohort study which clearly justifies the key role of LDL cholesterol in preventive strategies. However, the data also give strong support for the additional consideration of other risk factors for a valid estimation of the MI risk for an individual subject. © 1997 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd