A small-size macroeconometric model for Pakistan economy

This paper is part of efforts to develop macroeconometric model for Pakistan (MMP). This paper is an initial attempt to develop a small size macroeconometric model to foresee the effects of monetary policy through forecasting and simulations. We present the basic structure of macroeconometric model for Pakistan. This is a small-size model comprising 17 equations, out of which 11 are behavioral equations while the rest are either identities or definitional equations. OLS method is used to estimate the behavioral equations by using annual data from FY73-FY06. We provide the estimation results and results of policy simulations to quantify the impact of shocks to various exogenous variables

A small-size macroeconometric model for Pakistan economy

This paper is part of efforts to develop macroeconometric model for Pakistan (MMP). This paper is an initial attempt to develop a small size macroeconometric model to foresee the effects of monetary policy through forecasting and simulations. We present the basic structure of macroeconometric model for Pakistan. This is a small-size model comprising 17 equations, out of which 11 are behavioral equations while the rest are either identities or definitional equations. OLS method is used to estimate the behavioral equations by using annual data from FY73-FY06. We provide the estimation results and results of policy simulations to quantify the impact of shocks to various exogenous variables

Relationship Between Ultrasonographic and Biochemical Markers of Tubal Ectopic Pregnancy and Success of Subsequent Management

Objectives—To determine whether there is an association between morphologic types of tubal ectopic pregnancy (EP), 0-hour human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) levels, and subsequent management success. Methods—We conducted a prospective study (November 2006–December 2015). Women had a diagnosis of EP by transvaginal ultrasonography if they had an inhomogeneous mass adjacent to the ovary and moving separately from it (“blob” sign), a mass with a hyperechoic ring around the gestational sac (“bagel” sign), or a gestational sac with an embryonic pole with or without a yolk sac with or without cardiac activity. The morphologic type, EP size, and 0-hour hCG level were analyzed. A multivariate analysis determined any correlation between these variables and nonsurgical management success. Results—A total of 7350 consecutive women underwent transvaginal ultrasonography, of whom 301 (4.2%) had a diagnosis of tubal EP; 181 (60.1%) had the blob sign; 90 (29.9%) had the bagel sign; and 23 (7.6%) were noted to have an embryo (14 viable and 9 nonviable). Eighty-three of 301(27.5%) women had expectant management; 67 of 301(22.2%) were given methotrexate; and 151 of 301 (50%) had surgery. Success rates for the groups were 77%, 75%, and 100%, respectively. No difference between the morphologic type and success rate of treatment was noted. Although there was a significant correlation between the EP mass size and 0-hour hCG level, the mass size itself was not correlated with the success rate of either medical or expectant management. Overall higher 0-hour hCG levels were associated with management failure. In the expectant group, median hCG level for failure was 589 IU/L versus 366 IU/L for success, whereas in the medical group, the median for failure was 1244 IU/L versus 7629 IU/L for success. Conclusions—There is no significant correlation between the morphologic type and size of EP with a nonsurgical management outcome. A likely successful outcome is related to a lower level of serum hCG at presentation

Rationalizing the management of pregnancies of unknown location : diagnostic accuracy of human chorionic gonadotropin ratio-based decision tree compared with the risk prediction model M4

Introduction: The objective was to compare the diagnostic accuracy of the decision tree analysis prediction model P1, which incorporates the human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) ratio (hCG 48 hours/hCG 0 hour), and risk prediction model M4 in the management of women with pregnancy of unknown location (PUL). Material and methods: A retrospective diagnostic accuracy study was performed on PUL data collected between August 2011 and September 2018. Women with a PUL were prospectively managed according to the P1 prediction model, which utilizes the hCG ratio and, if necessary, a day (D) 7 hCG. We compared the performance of P1 with the M4 model, a logistic regression mathematical model using initial hCG and hCG ratio, to classify PULs as low risk (failed PUL [failed] or intrauterine pregnancy) or high risk (ectopic pregnancy or persistent PUL). The reference standard was defined as the final PUL outcome. Results: Transvaginal ultrasound was done in 3847 consecutive women for early pregnancy complications, 437 (11.3%) of whom were classified as PUL. Final analysis comprised 413 cases with complete data. Final PUL clinical outcomes were: 247 (59.8%) failed PUL, 94 (22.7%) intrauterine pregnancy, 49 (11.8%) ectopic pregnancy and 23 (5.5%) persistent PUL. The sensitivity of P1 and M4 in predicting high-risk PUL were 81.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 71.1-90.0) and 80.6% (95% CI 69.5-88.9), respectively. The specificities were 74.5% (95% CI 69.5-79.1) and 75.6% (95% CI 70.7-80.1), respectively. Conclusions: P1 and M4 performed similarly with respect to diagnostic accuracy in predicting PUL outcome. P1 needs to be externally validated

Predicting Pouch of Douglas obliteration using ultrasound and laparoscopic video sets : an interobserver and diagnostic accuracy study

Objectives—To investigate the diagnostic accuracy and interobserver agreement among sonologists when assessing offline ultrasound (US) video sets of the "sliding sign" and among gynecologic surgeons when assessing corresponding laparoscopic video sets to predict pouch of Douglas (POD) obliteration and to compare the performance of the groups. Methods—A diagnostic and reproducibility study was conducted, including 15 observers in 4 groups: (1) senior sonologists, (2) junior sonologists, (3) general gynecologists, and (4) advanced laparoscopists. The sonologists viewed 25 offline preoperative US video sets of the sliding sign, and the surgeons viewed the corresponding intraoperative laparoscopic videos of the same patients. Each observer was asked to classify POD obliteration in the video sets and was compared to the reference standard POD state determined at real-time laparoscopy by a single investigator (G.C.). The interobserver correlation and diagnostic accuracy were evaluated among the 15 observers and 4 groups. The Cohen κ coefficient and Fleiss ê coefficient were used for the analysis. Results—The overall accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for senior sonologists were 93.3%, 100%, 89.6%, 84.4%, and 100%, respectively; for junior sonologists, 70.0%, 88.9%, 59.4%, 55.2%, and 90.5%; for general gynecologists, 75.2%, 88.1%, 78.1%, 69.8%, and 91.9%; and for advanced laparoscopists, 82.4%, 91.9%, 90.8%, 82.9%, and 95.8%. The overall agreement between senior sonologists was almost perfect (Fleiss κ = 0.876); for junior sonologists and general gynecologists, it was moderate (Fleiss κ = 0.589 and 0.528); and for advanced laparoscopists, it was substantial (Fleiss κ = 0.652). Conclusions—Interobserver agreement was superior among senior sonologists. Prediction of POD obliteration using offline US videos by senior sonologists is comparable to offline assessments of laparoscopic videos by advanced laparoscopists for prediction of POD obliteration

Doppler Color Scoring System in Women With an Incomplete Miscarriage:Interobserver and Intraobserver Reproducibility Study

Objectives: Doppler Color Scoring (DCS) has been used to predict successful expectant management of incomplete miscarriage. The aim of this study was to assess inter- and intraobserver reproducibility of the DCS system in women with incomplete miscarriage noted on transvaginal sonography. Methods: This was a prospective reproducibility study involving offline analysis of 32 prerecorded video sets on transvaginal sonography in real time of women with incomplete miscarriage. Vascularization of retained products of conception was recorded using the DCS system adopted from the International Ovarian Tumor Analysis group. Five gynecologic sonologists of varying experience assigned a DCS classification to each video in the analysis. The same videos were reanalyzed, in a different order, at least 7 days later, to assess intraobserver agreement. Inter- and intraobserver correlations were performed to determine agreement. Interobserver agreement was also measured between each observer and the reference standard (G.C.). A Cohen's κ coefficient value less than 0 suggests poor agreement, 0.01 to 0.20 slight, 0.21 to 0.40 fair, 0.41 to 0.60 moderate, 0.61 to 0.80 substantial, and 0.81 and 0.99 almost perfect. Results: Interobserver agreement for all observers for DCS allocation ranged from 0.480 to 0.751. Overall interobserver agreement for 5 observers was substantial (κ, 0.626). Overall interobserver agreements for the 2 inexperienced and 3 experienced observers compared to G.C. were 0.521 and 0.618, respectively. Experienced observers achieved overall almost perfect intraobserver agreement, compared to substantial agreement for inexperienced sonologists. Conclusions: DCS interobserver reproducibility between all observers and GC ranged from moderate to substantial. DCS intraobserver reproducibility was substantial to almost perfect. The DCS system appears to be a reproducible tool in evaluating women with incomplete miscarriage