Arima forecasting of the prevalence of anemia in children in Sierra Leone

Using annual time series data on the prevalence of anemia in children under 5 years of age in Sierra Leone from 1990 – 2016, the study makes predictions for the period 2017 – 2025. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the AS series under consideration is an I (0) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the AR (4) model, also known as the ARIMA (4, 0, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further show us that the presented model is stable and its residuals are not serially correlated. The results of the study indicate that the prevalence of anemia in children in Sierra Leone will rise over the out-of-sample period. By 2025, the country will be having a prevalence of anemia in children of approximately 78.6%

Adults newly infected with hiv in burundi: a box-jenkins arima approach

Using annual time series data on the number of adults (ages 15 and above) newly infected with HIV in Burundi from 1990 – 2018, the study predicts the annual number of adults who will be newly infected with HIV over the period 2019 – 2025. The study applied the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests as well as correlogram analysis show that the G series under consideration is an I (2) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 1) model as the optimal model. The residual correlogram and the inverse roots of the applied model further reveal that the presented model is stable and suitable for forecasting new HIV infections in adults in Burundi. The results of the study indicate that the number of new HIV infections in adults in Burundi will most likely decline, over the period 2019 – 2023, from approximately 698 to almost 90 new HIV infections. By 2025, Burundi could experience her first zero new HIV infections in adults! This implies that, despite the fact that Vision Burundi 2025 is a highly ambitious blue-print; Vision Burundi 2025 will largely be achieved as far as HIV/AIDS prevention and control is concerned

Total new HIV infections in Togo: a box-jenkins arima approach

Using annual time series data on the total number of new HIV infections in Togo from 1990 – 2018, the study makes predictions for the period 2019 – 2030. The research applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, J, the series under consideration is an I (2) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 2) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is indeed stable and its residuals are not serially correlated and are also normally distributed. The results of the study indicate that the total number of new HIV infections in Togo is projected to decline sharply by 53.5% from the estimated 4791 new infections in 2019 to approximately 2229 new infections by 2030

Arima Forecasting of ohe prevalence of Anemia in children in Myanmar

Using annual time series data on the prevalence of anemia in children under 5 years of age in Myanmar from 1990 – 2016, the study makes predictions for the period 2017 – 2025. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, AM, the series under consideration is an I (0) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents an AR (4) model, which is also called the ARIMA (4, 0, 0) model. This has been found to be the parsimonious model. The diagnostic tests further reveal that the presented model is quite stable and its residuals are not serially correlated. The results of the research indicate that the prevalence of anemia in children in Myanmar will rise from approximately 54.5% in 2017 to almost 64.8% by 2025. This means that anemia is not yet under control in the country. This is a wake up call to both public health policy makers and nutrition specialists in the country.&nbsp

OPEN DEFECATION IN MALAWI: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH

Using annual time series data on the number of people who practice open defecation in Malawi from 2000 – 2017, the study predicts the annual number of people who will still be practicing open defecation over the period 2018 – 2021. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the M series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (3, 1, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further show that the presented model is stable and its residuals are stationary in levels. The results of the study indicate that the number of people practicing open defecation in Malawi is likely to decline, over the period 2018 – 2022, from approximately 5.1% to almost 2.8% of the total population. Indeed, by 2030, open defecation can be eliminated in Malawi: hence, the country is in the right track with regards to its vision 2030 (on water, sanitation and hygiene). The study suggested a 3-fold policy recommendation to be put into consideration, especially by the government of Malawi

Pediatric HIV outbreak in Pakistan: policy implications from generalized arima analysis

HIV/AIDS is increasingly becoming a nightmare in Pakistan. If left uncontrolled now, the country’s limited resources could be overwhelmed by 2030 and this will cause worse sufferings and disease burden in the country. Using annual time series data on the number of children (ages 0 – 14) newly infected with HIV in Pakistan from 1990 – 2018, the study predicts the annual number of children who will be newly infected with HIV over the period 2019 – 2030. The study applied the Box-Jenkins ARIMA technique. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, W, the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model as the parsimonious model. The residual correlogram further reveals that the estimated model is stable. The results of the study indicate that the number of new HIV infections in Pakistan is rising and on this trajectory, the country’s limited resources will soon be overwhelmed. Our best model revealed that new pediatric HIV infections in Pakistan will continue to rise from the estimated 1460 to almost 1990 annual new infections by 2030. Amongst other policy directions, the study encourages the government of Pakistan to increase HIV awareness as well as expand PPTCT coverage throughout the country

Open defecation in Kenya: A Box-Jenkins Arima Approach

Using annual time series data on the number of people who practice open defecation in Kenya from 2000 – 2017, the study predicts the annual number of people who will still be practicing open defecation over the period 2018 – 2021. The authors apply the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the ODK series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 1, 2) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is quite stable and its residuals are stationary in levels. The results of the study indicate that the number of people practicing open defecation in Kenya is likely to decline, although slightly, over the period 2018 – 2022, from approximately 9.9% to almost 8.2% of the total population. Hence, it is possible for Kenya to completely eliminate the practice of open defecation by 2030. The study basically suggested a 3-fold policy recommendation to be put into consideration, especially by the government of Kenya

Arima forecasting of the prevalence of anemia in children in Myanmar

Using annual time series data on the prevalence of anemia in children under 5 years of age in Myanmar from 1990 – 2016, the study makes predictions for the period 2017 – 2025. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, AM, the series under consideration is an I (0) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents an AR (4) model, which is also called the ARIMA (4, 0, 0) model. This has been found to be the parsimonious model. The diagnostic tests further reveal that the presented model is quite stable and its residuals are not serially correlated. The results of the research indicate that the prevalence of anemia in children in Myanmar will rise from approximately 54.5% in 2017 to almost 64.8% by 2025. This means that anemia is not yet under control in the country. This is a wake up call to both public health policy makers and nutrition specialists in the country.&nbsp

Understanding inflation trends in Israel: A univariate approach

This paper uses annual time series data on inflation in Israel from 1960 to 2017, to model and forecast inflation using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests indicate that Q is I (1). The study presents the ARIMA (1, 1, 2) model for predicting inflation in Israel. The diagnostic tests further show that the presented parsimonious model is stable and acceptable for predicting inflation in Israel. The results of the study apparently show that inflation in Israel is likely to be hovering around 1.6% over the next decade. Basically, the study encourages the Bank of Israel to continue being transparent and independent in order to retain credibility and boost its ability to engineer successful macroeconomic policy actions

Factors affecting succession planning in Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in Zimbabwe: a case study of Harare

Lack of proper succession planning is one of the major causes of SMEs closure or failure after the death or retirement of founder. Zimbabwean SMEs are not an exception. This study seeks to analyze factors affecting succession planning in SMEs in Zimbabwe. Employing the questionnaire as a data collection instrument and relying on heterogeneous sampling, the study; whose recommendations are 4-fold, basically found out that there is need for proper succession planning if Zimbabwean SMEs are to circumvent the problem of discontinuity after death or retirement of founder