The convective storm initiation project

Copyright @ 2007 AMSThe Convective Storm Initiation Project (CSIP) is an international project to understand precisely where, when, and how convective clouds form and develop into showers in the mainly maritime environment of southern England. A major aim of CSIP is to compare the results of the very high resolution Met Office weather forecasting model with detailed observations of the early stages of convective clouds and to use the newly gained understanding to improve the predictions of the model. A large array of ground-based instruments plus two instrumented aircraft, from the U.K. National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) and the German Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK), Karlsruhe, were deployed in southern England, over an area centered on the meteorological radars at Chilbolton, during the summers of 2004 and 2005. In addition to a variety of ground-based remote-sensing instruments, numerous rawin-sondes were released at one- to two-hourly intervals from six closely spaced sites. The Met Office weather radar network and Meteosat satellite imagery were used to provide context for the observations made by the instruments deployed during CSIP. This article presents an overview of the CSIP field campaign and examples from CSIP of the types of convective initiation phenomena that are typical in the United Kingdom. It shows the way in which certain kinds of observational data are able to reveal these phenomena and gives an explanation of how the analyses of data from the field campaign will be used in the development of an improved very high resolution NWP model for operational use.This work is funded by the National Environment Research Council following an initial award from the HEFCE Joint Infrastructure Fund

Probing the Links between Political Economy and Non-Traditional Security: Themes, Approaches, and Instruments

This is a pre-print of an article published in International Politics. The definitive publisher-authenticated version of: Hameiri, Shahar, and Lee Jones. "Probing the links between political economy and non-traditional security: Themes, approaches and instruments." International Politics (2015), is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/ip.2015.1In recent decades, the security agenda for states and international organisations has expanded dramatically to include a range of ‘non-traditional’, transnational security issues. It is often suggested that globalisation has been a key driver for the emergence or intensification of these problems, but, surprisingly, little sustained scholarly effort has been made to examine the link between responses to the new security agenda and the changing political economy. This curious neglect largely reflects the mutual blind-spots of the sub-disciplines of International Security Studies and International Political Economy, coupled with the dominance of approaches that tend to neglect economic factors. This special issue, which this article introduces, aims to overcome this significant gap. In particular, it focuses on three key themes: the broad relationship between security and the political economy; what is being secured in the name of security, and how this has changed; and how things are being secured – what modes of governance have emerged to manage security problems. In all of these areas, the contributions point to the crucial role of the state in translating shifting state-economy relations to new security definitions and practices

Adaptive and maladaptive consequences of “matching habitat choice:” lessons from a rapidly-evolving butterfly metapopulation

Relationships between biased dispersal and local adaptation are currently debated. Here, I show how prior work on wild butterflies casts a novel light on this topic. “Preference” is defined as the set of likelihoods of accepting particular resources after encountering them. So defined, butterfly oviposition preferences are heritable habitat adaptations distinct from both habitat preference and biased dispersal, but influencing both processes. When a butterfly emigrates after its oviposition preference begins to reduce realized fecundity, the resulting biased dispersal is analogous to that occurring when a fish emigrates after its morphological habitat adaptations reduce its feeding rate. I illustrate preference-biased dispersal with examples from metapopulations of Melitaea cinxia and Euphydryas editha. E. editha were feeding on a well-defended host, Pedicularis, when humans created patches in which Pedicularis was killed and a less-defended host, Collinsia, was rendered phenologically available. Patch-specific natural selection favoured oviposition on Collinsia in logged (“clearing”) patches and on Pedicularis in undisturbed open forest. Quantitative variation in post-alighting oviposition preference was heritable, and evolved to be consistently different between patch types. This difference was driven more by biased dispersal than by spatial variation of natural selection. Insects developing on Collinsia in clearings retained adaptations to Pedicularis in clutch size, geotaxis and oviposition preference, forcing them to choose between emigrating in search of forest habitats with Pedicularis or staying and failing to find their preferred host. Insects that stayed suffered reduction of realized fecundity after delayed oviposition on Collinsia. Those that emigrated suffered even greater fitness penalty from consistently low offspring survival on Pedicularis. Paradoxically, most emigrants reduced both their own fitness and that of the recipient populations by dispersing from a benign natal habitat to which they were maladapted into a more demanding habitat to which they were well-adapted. “Matching habitat choice” reduced fitness when evolutionary lag rendered traditional cues unreliable in a changing environment

Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability