Do delays in data availability limit the implementation of near real-time vaccine safety surveillance using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink?

Near real-time vaccine safety surveillance (NRTVSS) using electronic health records has been used to detect timely vaccine safety signals. Trial implementation of NRTVSS using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) has shown that there is limited power to detect safety signals for rare events. Delays in recording outcomes and receiving data influence the power and timeliness to identify a signal. Our work aimed to compare how different sources of delays influence power and expected time to signal to implement NRTVSS using CPRD. We studied seasonal influenza vaccine/Guillain-Barré syndrome and performed power and expected time to signal calculations for the 2013-2014/2014-2015 seasons. We used the Poisson-based maximised sequential probability ratio test, which compares observed-to-expected events. For each study season, we obtained an average Guillain-Barré syndrome/seizures age-sex-adjusted rate from the 5 previous seasons and then used this rate to calculate the expected number of events, assuming a 42-day risk-window. Calculations were performed for detecting rate ratios of 1.5 to 10. We compared power and timeliness considering combinations of the presence/absence of delays in recording outcomes and in receiving data. The R-package Sequential was used. In general, there was ≥80% power to detect increases in risk of ≥4 at the end of the season. Assuming absence of delays slightly improved power (a maximum increase of 4%) but did not noticeably reduce time to detect a signal. Removing delays in data availability is insufficient to significantly improve the performance of a NRTVSS system using CPRD. Expansion of CPRD data is required. KEY POINTS The Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) can be used to implement near real-time vaccine safety surveillance, but there is limited power to detect signals for rare outcomes. Delays in recording outcomes and in receiving data might limit power and timeliness of a system. We assessed the influence of these sources of delays to inform data providers of the steps required to improve a system using CPRD data. Removing delays in recording outcomes and receiving data is unlikely to significantly improve the performance of a system using CPRD data. Expansion of the data available is needed

Trends in the burden of varicella in UK general practice.

Childhood varicella vaccination has not yet been introduced in the UK. To inform decision-making about future vaccine programmes, data on the burden of varicella in general practice over a 10-year period (01/01/2005-31/12/2014) was calculated by age and ethnicity, using anonymised data from >8 million individuals in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Varicella consultations peaked at 20 603 in 2007, then decreased annually in all age groups to 11 243 in 2014. Each year, consultation rates were common among infants, were highest among 1-3 year olds (61·2 consultations/1000 person-years in 2007, 39·7/1000 person-years in 2014) and then fell with increasing age to <1·0/1000 person-years at ages ⩾20 years. Varicella acquisition appeared to be delayed in some ethnic groups, with lower consultation rates for children aged <3 years but increased rates for older children and adults aged ⩽40 years among those of black African, Afro-Caribbean, South Asian or other Asian ethnicity. Decreasing general practice consultation rates over time could reflect changes in healthcare utilisation, with patients seeking care in alternative settings such as Accident and Emergency Departments, although current data prevent full assessment of this. Availability of data on varicella diagnoses across all health settings would enable estimation of the total healthcare burden due to varicella and the cost-effectiveness of introducing varicella vaccination

The risk of Kawasaki disease after pneumococcal conjugate & meningococcal B vaccine in England: A self-controlled case-series analysis.

Kawasaki disease (KD) is an uncommon condition occasionally reported after childhood vaccination. Admissions with a KD-compatible diagnosis identified from a national database in England were linked to immunisation records to investigate the risk after pneumococcal conjugate (PCV) or meningococcal B (MenB) vaccines. Both are given at 2/4/12 months of age but were introduced sequentially, allowing their effects to be separately assessed. A total of 553 linked admissions in 512 individuals were validated as KD. The relative incidence (RI) within 28 days of PCV doses 1 or 2 measured by the self-controlled case-series method was 0.62 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.38-1.00) with a significantly decreased risk after dose 3 (RI 0.30 (95% CI 0.11-0.77)). For MenB vaccine, the RI after doses 1 or 2 was 1.03 (95% CI 0.51-2.05) and 0.64 (95% CI 0.08-5.26) after dose 3. This study shows no evidence of an increased risk of KD after either vaccine

Jacobi Polynomials as su(2, 2) Unitary Irreducible Representation

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Use of traditional serological methods and oral fluids to assess immunogenicity in children aged 2-16 years after successive annual vaccinations with LAIV.

BACKGROUND: The UK introduced quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine (qLAIV) for children in 2013/2014. The impact of annual vaccination on effectiveness and immunogenicity is being assessed. METHOD: A phase III/IV open-label study of the immunogenicity of annual vaccination with qLAIV (Fluenz™) was conducted over three consecutive years (2014/15-2016/17) in 254, 249 and 162 children respectively. Serum responses to vaccine components were measured by Haemagglutination Inhibition (HAI) and anti-A(H1N1)pdm09 Neuraminidase (NAI) assays, stratified according to previous receipt of AS03B-adjuvanted A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic vaccine in 2009/10. Antibody levels to the A(H1N1)pdm09 and H3N2 vaccine components in oral fluids (OF) were explored using an ELISA. FINDINGS: More paired pre- and post-vaccination oral fluids (96%) than paired sera (87%) were obtained. Geometric mean titre rises using HAI assays were limited, with maximum rises seen in year one for both influenza B strains when 39% and 43% of subjects seroconverted (95% confidence interval 33-46% and 36-50%, respectively) and year two for influenza H3N2, when 40% (33-46%) individuals seroconverted. Prior pandemic vaccine receipt resulted in higher pre- and post-vaccination A(H1N1)pdm09 HAI titres and lower pre-and post-vaccination NAI (N1 neuraminidase) titres in all three years. OF results were congruent with HAI results; assay specificity compared to HAI was 88.1 and 71.6 percent, and sensitivity was 86.4 and 74.8 percent respectively for A(H1N1)pdm09 and H3N2. CONCLUSION: In all three study years, vaccination with qLAIV resulted in poor antibody responses. However, OFs are an alternative specimen type that allows self sampling, can easily be obtained from children, and their analysis leads to similar conclusions as classic serology by HAI. Their suitability for seroprevalence studies should be investigated. We demonstrated a sustained effect from prior receipt of the AS03B-adjuvanted A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine, even after repeat vaccination with qLAIV indicating that early exposure to influenza antigens has a significant long lasting effect

The Non-SUSY Baryonic Branch: Soft Supersymmetry Breaking of N=1 Gauge Theories

We study a non-supersymmetric deformation of the field theory dual to the baryonic branch of Klebanov-Strassler. Using a combination of analytical (series expansions) and numerical methods we construct non-supersymmetric backgrounds that smoothly interpolate between the desired UV and IR behaviors. We calculate various observables of the field theory and propose a picture of soft breaking by gaugino masses that is consistent with the various calculations on the string side.Comment: 32 pages plus many appendixes. One figur

The Structure of the Non-SUSY Baryonic Branch of Klebanov-Strassler

We study the two-dimensional space of supergravity solutions corresponding to non-supersymmetric deformations of the baryonic branch of Klebanov-Strassler. By combining analytical methods with a numerical survey of the parameter space, we find that this solution space includes as limits the softly-broken N=1 solutions of Gubser et al. and those of Dymarsky and Kuperstein. We also identify a one-dimensional family of solutions corresponding to a natural non-supersymmetric generalisation of Klebanov-Strassler, and one corresponding to the limit in which supersymmetry is completely absent, even in the far UV. For almost all of the parameter space we find indications that much of the structure of the supersymmetric baryonic branch survives.Comment: 29 pages plus appendices, 11 figure

Alcohol and cocaine use prior to suspected suicide: Insights from toxicology

Introduction This study investigates whether there is a relationship between alcohol and cocaine use in deaths where suicide by self-injury is the suspected cause of death. Methods Adults referred by coroners to the Imperial College London Toxicology Unit for toxicological analysis between 2012 and 2016 were reviewed for inclusion criteria. Those who died by self-injury reasoned to be deliberate were included in the analysis. Femoral blood alcohol concentration (BAC) and presence of cocaine or benzoylecognine (a metabolite of cocaine) in blood and/or urine were tabulated and odds ratios calculated. Results A total of 1722 decedents met inclusion criteria. BAC was ≥50 mg/dL in 29% of decedents. Cocaine was detected in 8.4% of cases. The likelihood of testing positive for cocaine increased with BAC and was most frequent between 100 and 199 mg/dL, consistent with moderate to severe intoxication (odds ratio 5.88, 95% confidence interval 3.80, 9.09; P ≤ 0.001) compared to those with BAC <10 mg/dL. Discussion and Conclusions This study demonstrates a correlation between increasing BAC and likelihood of cocaine use prior to suspected suicide, up to a level consistent with severe intoxication. Cocaine use was found in a high proportion of cases relative to the general population reporting regular use. This pattern of drug and alcohol use has previously been given little attention in suicide prevention strategies and clinical prioritisation

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 among Blood Donors and Changes after Introduction of Public Health and Social Measures, London, UK

We describe results of testing blood donors in London, UK, for severe acute respiratory disease coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) IgG before and after lockdown measures. Anonymized samples from donors 17–69 years of age were tested using 3 assays: Euroimmun IgG, Abbott IgG, and an immunoglobulin receptor-binding domain assay developed by Public Health England. Seroprevalence increased from 3.0% prelockdown (week 13, beginning March 23, 2020) to 10.4% during lockdown (weeks 15–16) and 12.3% postlockdown (week 18) by the Abbott assay. Estimates were 2.9% prelockdown, 9.9% during lockdown, and 13.0% postlockdown by the Euroimmun assay and 3.5% prelockdown, 11.8% during lockdown, and 14.1% postlockdown by the receptor-binding domain assay. By early May 2020, nearly 1 in 7 donors had evidence of past SARS-CoV-2 infection. Combining results from the Abbott and Euroimmun assays increased seroprevalence by 1.6%, 2.3%, and 0.6% at the 3 timepoints compared with Euroimmun alone, demonstrating the value of using multiple assays