32,957 research outputs found
Shuttle program. Solar activity prediction of sunspot numbers, predicted solar radio flux
A solar activity prediction technique for monthly mean sunspot numbers over a period of approximately ten years from February 1979 to January 1989 is presented. This includes the predicted maximum epoch of solar cycle 21, approximately January 1980, and the predicted minimum epoch of solar cycle 22, approximately March 1987. Additionally, the solar radio flux 10.7 centimeter smooth values are included for the same time frame using a smooth 13 month empirical relationship. The incentive for predicting solar activity values is the requirement of solar flux data as input to upper atmosphere density models utilized in mission planning satellite orbital lifetime studies
Error estimation in the histogram Monte Carlo method
We examine the sources of error in the histogram reweighting method for Monte
Carlo data analysis. We demonstrate that, in addition to the standard
statistical error which has been studied elsewhere, there are two other sources
of error, one arising through correlations in the reweighted samples, and one
arising from the finite range of energies sampled by a simulation of finite
length. We demonstrate that while the former correction is usually negligible
by comparison with statistical fluctuations, the latter may not be, and give
criteria for judging the range of validity of histogram extrapolations based on
the size of this latter correction.Comment: 7 pages including 3 postscript figures, typeset in LaTeX using the
RevTeX macro packag
Two-Dimensional Scaling Limits via Marked Nonsimple Loops
We postulate the existence of a natural Poissonian marking of the double
(touching) points of SLE(6) and hence of the related continuum nonsimple loop
process that describes macroscopic cluster boundaries in 2D critical
percolation. We explain how these marked loops should yield continuum versions
of near-critical percolation, dynamical percolation, minimal spanning trees and
related plane filling curves, and invasion percolation. We show that this
yields for some of the continuum objects a conformal covariance property that
generalizes the conformal invariance of critical systems. It is an open problem
to rigorously construct the continuum objects and to prove that they are indeed
the scaling limits of the corresponding lattice objects.Comment: 25 pages, 5 figure
Potts Model On Random Trees
We study the Potts model on locally tree-like random graphs of arbitrary
degree distribution. Using a population dynamics algorithm we numerically solve
the problem exactly. We confirm our results with simulations. Comparisons with
a previous approach are made, showing where its assumption of uniform local
fields breaks down for networks with nodes of low degree.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figure
The Brownian Web: Characterization and Convergence
The Brownian Web (BW) is the random network formally consisting of the paths
of coalescing one-dimensional Brownian motions starting from every space-time
point in . We extend the earlier work of Arratia
and of T\'oth and Werner by providing characterization and convergence results
for the BW distribution, including convergence of the system of all coalescing
random walkssktop/brownian web/finale/arXiv submits/bweb.tex to the BW under
diffusive space-time scaling. We also provide characterization and convergence
results for the Double Brownian Web, which combines the BW with its dual
process of coalescing Brownian motions moving backwards in time, with forward
and backward paths ``reflecting'' off each other. For the BW, deterministic
space-time points are almost surely of ``type'' -- {\em zero} paths
into the point from the past and exactly {\em one} path out of the point to the
future; we determine the Hausdorff dimension for all types that actually occur:
dimension 2 for type , 3/2 for and , 1 for , and 0
for and .Comment: 52 pages with 4 figure
The Universal Cut Function and Type II Metrics
In analogy with classical electromagnetic theory, where one determines the
total charge and both electric and magnetic multipole moments of a source from
certain surface integrals of the asymptotic (or far) fields, it has been known
for many years - from the work of Hermann Bondi - that energy and momentum of
gravitational sources could be determined by similar integrals of the
asymptotic Weyl tensor. Recently we observed that there were certain overlooked
structures, {defined at future null infinity,} that allowed one to determine
(or define) further properties of both electromagnetic and gravitating sources.
These structures, families of {complex} `slices' or `cuts' of Penrose's null
infinity, are referred to as Universal Cut Functions, (UCF). In particular, one
can define from these structures a (complex) center of mass (and center of
charge) and its equations of motion - with rather surprising consequences. It
appears as if these asymptotic structures contain in their imaginary part, a
well defined total spin-angular momentum of the source. We apply these ideas to
the type II algebraically special metrics, both twisting and twist-free.Comment: 32 page
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