Option Pricing on Renewable Commodity Markets

Options markets on agricultural commodities with maturities that exceed 13 months seldom trade. Our hypothesis is that this market failure is due to the absence of an accurate option pricing model for commodities where mean reversion can be expected. Standard option pricing models assume proportionality between price variance and time to maturity. This proportionality is not a valid assumption for commodities where supply response works to bring prices back to production costs. The model suggests that traditional option pricing models will overprice long-term options on these markets.commodity futures and option, price mean reverting, seasonality, Agricultural Finance, Financial Economics,

Infant arterial stiffness and maternal iron status in pregnancy: A UK birth cohort (Baby VIP study)

Background In animal studies, iron deficiency during pregnancy has been linked to increased offspring cardiovascular risk. No previous population studies have measured arterial stiffness early in life to examine its association with maternal iron status. Objective This study aimed to examine the association between maternal iron status in early pregnancy with infant brachio-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV). Methods The Baby VIP (Baby’s Vascular health and Iron in Pregnancy) study is a UK-based birth cohort which recruited 362 women after delivery from the Leeds Teaching Hospitals postnatal wards. Ferritin and transferrin receptor levels were measured in maternal serum samples previously obtained in the first trimester. Infant brachio-femoral PWV was measured during a home visit at 2-6 weeks. Results Iron depletion (ferritin <15 ug/L) was detected in 79 (23%) women in early pregnancy. Infant PWV (m=6.7 m/s, sd=1.3, n=284) was not associated with maternal ferritin (adjusted change per 10 ug/L= 0.02, 95% CI -0.01, 0.1), nor with iron depletion (adjusted change = -0.2, 95% CI -0.6, 0.2). No evidence of association was observed between maternal serum transferrin receptor level or its ratio to ferritin with infant PWV. Maternal anaemia (<11 g/dL) at ≤20 weeks gestation was associated with a 1.0 m/s increase in infant PWV (adjusted 95% CI 0.1, 1.9). Conclusion This is the largest study to-date which assessed peripheral PWV as a measure of arterial stiffness in infants. There was no evidence of an association between markers of maternal iron status early in pregnancy and infant PWV

Price Mean Reversion, Seasonality, and Options Markets

Options on agricultural commodities with maturities exceeding one year seldom trade. One possible reason to explain this lack of trading is that we do not have an accurate option pricing model for products where mean reversion in spot-price levels can be expected. Standard option pricing models assume proportionality between price variance and time to maturity. This proportionality is not a valid assumption for commodities whose supply response brings prices back to production costs. The model proposed here incorporates mean reversion in spot-price levels and includes a correction for seasonality. Mean reversion and seasonality are both observed in the soybean market. The empirical analysis lends strong support to the model

The Long-Term Structure of Commodity Futures

Futures markets on agricultural commodities typically trade with maximum maturity dates of less than four years. If these markets did trade with maturities eight or ten years distant, futures prices would have value as price forecasts and as a way to structure long-term swaps and insurance contracts. Agricultural commodity markets generally exhibit mean reversion in spot prices and convenience yields. Spot markets also exhibit seasonality. This study develops and implements a procedure to generate long-term futures curves from existing futures prices. Data on lean hogs and soybeans are used to show that the method provides plausible results

The combined impact of sauerkraut with Leuconostoc mesenteroides to enhance immunomodulatory activity in Escherichia coli-infected mice

This study investigated the combined impact of sauerkraut and Leuconostoc mesenteroides culture on immunomodulatory activity in experimental animal. The in vivo immunomodulatory activity of Escherichia coli-infected Balb-C mice was ascertained in fermented sauerkrauts [test vs. control]. Both sauerkrauts enhanced the adaptive immune response [evidenced by an increase in CD4+ CD8+ IFN-γ, TNFα] and innate immune response [represented by a decrease of CD68-IL-6]. Nev- ertheless, the in vivo immunomodulatory activity of sauerkraut combined with L. mesenteroides was higher than that shown in sauerkraut control solely

Demographic and Psychological Predictors of Parent–Adolescent Communication About Sex: A Representative Statewide Analysis

Sexual communication is a principal means of transmitting sexual values, beliefs, expectations, and knowledge between parents and children. Although this area has received considerable research attention, more studies with representative samples are needed to assure that findings are reflective of populations of interest. A representative statewide sample of households with adolescents (N = 907) from a large and diverse state in the United States was employed to examine the content and extent of sexual communication between parents and their adolescents, and the influence of selected primary demographic (age and gender), socio-demographic (Hispanic ethnicity, education, and religious attendance), and psychological (self-reported comfort, knowledge, and sexual communication difficulties) factors on the number of topics discussed. More than two-thirds of the parents reported experiencing some type of sexual communication difficulty, such as developmental concerns and embarrassment. Hierarchical regression results indicated that self-reported comfort, knowledge, and sexual communication difficulties strongly predicted the number of topics discussed, beyond the effect of demographic variables. These findings reinforce the notion that sexual communication between parents and adolescents can be universally challenging, and parents of both genders, all ages, and all socio-demographic characteristics might benefit from education and support

Atrazine-induced apoptosis of splenocytes in BALB/C mice

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Atrazine (2-chloro-4-ethytlamino-6-isopropylamine-1,3,5-triazine; ATR), is the most commonly applied broad-spectrum herbicide in the world. Unintentional overspray of ATR poses an immune function health hazard. The biomolecular mechanisms responsible for ATR-induced immunotoxicity, however, are little understood. This study presents on our investigation into the apoptosis of splenocytes in mice exposed to ATR as we explore possible immunotoxic mechanisms.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Oral doses of ATR were administered to BALB/C mice for 21 days. The histopathology, lymphocyte apoptosis and the expression of apoptosis-related proteins from the Fas/Fas ligand (FasL) apoptotic pathway were examined from spleen samples.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Mice administered ATR exhibited a significant decrease in spleen and thymus weight. Electron microscope histology of ultrathin sections of spleen revealed degenerative micromorphology indicative of apoptosis of splenocytes. Flow cytometry revealed that the percentage of apoptotic lymphocytes increased in a dose-dependent manner after ATR treatment. Western blots identified increased expression of Fas, FasL and active caspase-3 proteins in the treatment groups.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>ATR is capable of inducing splenocytic apoptosis mediated by the Fas/FasL pathway in mice, which could be the potential mechanism underlying the immunotoxicity of ATR.</p

Vitamin D in the general population of young adults with autism in the Faroe Islands

Vitamin D deficiency has been proposed as a possible risk factor for developing autism spectrum disorder (ASD). 25-Hydroxyvitamin D3 (25(OH)D3) levels were examined in a cross-sectional population-based study in the Faroe Islands. The case group consisting of a total population cohort of 40 individuals with ASD (aged 15–24 years) had significantly lower 25(OH)D3 than their 62 typically-developing siblings and their 77 parents, and also significantly lower than 40 healthy age and gender matched comparisons. There was a trend for males having lower 25(OH)D3 than females. Effects of age, month/season of birth, IQ, various subcategories of ASD and Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule score were also investigated, however, no association was found. The very low 25(OH)D3 in the ASD group suggests some underlying pathogenic mechanism

Pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokine expression and histopathological characteristics in canine brain with traumatic brain injury

We analyzed the expression level and cellular localization of pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines and histopathologically characterized canine traumatic brain injury (TBI). Canine TBI brains revealed subarachnoid and cerebral cortical hemorrhage, neutrophilic infiltration, neuronal necrosis, astrocytosis, and vasogenic edema. Immunohistochemical evaluations suggested that both pro-inflammatory cytokines [interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-6, and tumor necrosis factor-α] and anti-inflammatory cytokines [IL-10 and transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-β)] were highly expressed in neurons and neutrophils. In particular, the highest magnitude of expression was identified for IL-1β and TGF-β. This data helps describe the pathologic characteristics of canine TBI, and may help in the design of potential therapeutic approaches to control secondary damage by inflammatory cytokines

Protocol for the saMS trial (supportive adjustment for multiple sclerosis): a randomized controlled trial comparing cognitive behavioral therapy to supportive listening for adjustment to multiple sclerosis

BackgroundMultiple Sclerosis (MS) is an incurable, chronic, potentially progressive and unpredictable disease of the central nervous system. The disease produces a range of unpleasant and debilitating symptoms, which can have a profound impact including disrupting activities of daily living, employment, income, relationships, social and leisure activities, and life goals. Adjusting to the illness is therefore particularly challenging. This trial tests the effectiveness of a cognitive behavioural intervention compared to supportive listening to assist adjustment in the early stages of MS.MethodsThis is a two arm randomized multi-centre parallel group controlled trial. 122 consenting participants who meet eligibility criteria will be randomly allocated to receive either Cognitive Behavioral Therapy or Supportive Listening. Eight one hour sessions of therapy (delivered over a period of 10 weeks) will be delivered by general nurses trained in both treatments. Self-report questionnaire data will be collected at baseline (0 weeks), mid-therapy (week 5 of therapy), post-therapy (15 weeks) and at six months (26 weeks) and twelve months (52 weeks) follow-up. Primary outcomes are distress and MS-related social and role impairment at twelve month follow-up. Analysis will also consider predictors and mechanisms of change during therapy. In-depth interviews to examine participants’ experiences of the interventions will be conducted with a purposively sampled sub-set of the trial participants. An economic analysis will also take place. DiscussionThis trial is distinctive in its aims in that it aids adjustment to MS in a broad sense. It is not a treatment specifically for depression. Use of nurses as therapists makes the interventions potentially viable in terms of being rolled out in the NHS. The trial benefits from incorporating patient input in the development and evaluation stages. The trial will provide important information about the efficacy, cost-effectiveness and acceptability of the interventions as well as mechanisms of psychosocial adjustment.Trial registrationCurrent Controlled Trials ISRCTN91377356<br/