«Вероятный избиратель»: эволюция и модификации модели Гэллапа

В статье рассматриваются методики составления прогнозов результатов выборов на основе опросных данных. В основе большинства таких прогнозов лежит методика, сконструированная Дж. Гэллапом в середине прошлого века. Авторы прослеживают эволюцию модели Дж. Гэллапа от хрестоматийной «победы 1936 года» до современных модификаций. Описаны эксперименты, проведенные в ходе формирования прогнозных моделей, представлен перечень вопросов, используемых американскими полстерами для прогнозирования результатов выборов, подробно разобран механизм подсчета баллов в моделях отсечения (cutoff), рассмотрены ограничения модели Гэллапа

Respiratory Muscle Strength in Patients with Coronary Heart Disease and Different Musculoskeletal Disorders

Aim. To measure respiratory muscle strength (RMS) in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) and different musculoskeletal disorders (MSD).Material and methods. Patients were divided in four groups according to the MSD. Group I included 52 (13.4%) patients with sarcopenia, group II included 28 (7.2%) patients with osteopenia, group III included 25 (6.5%) patients with osteosarcopenia, group IV included 282 (72.9%) patients without MSD. All patients underwent the assessment of maximal expiratory (МЕР) and maximal inspiratory mouth pressures (MIP).Results. The mean RMS values were lower than the normative values, and the strength of the expiratory muscles was 1.25 times lower compared to the inspiratory muscles. Both of these parameters were within the normal range in 191 (49.3%) patients, and lower values were noted in 196 (50.7%). An isolated decrease in MIP was observed in 24.8% of patients, an isolated decrease in МЕР in 6.5%, a combined decrease in MIP and МЕР in 19.4% of patients. Comparative analysis of МЕР and MIP (depending on the MSD) did not demonstrate statistically significant differences. Lower МЕР (76.9%) and MIP (75%) values were noted mainly in the group of patients with sarcopenia. A similar pattern was notes in patients with osteosarcopenia and in patients without MSD. Normative values of RMS were observed in patients with osteopenia. Correlation analysis revealed a unidirectional relationship between RMS and the parameters of muscle function (hand grip strength, muscle area and musculoskeletal index) and a multidirectional relationship between МЕР and BMI (r -0.743, p=0.013), MIP and patient age (r -0.624, p=0.021).Conclusion. Respiratory muscle weakness was diagnosed in half of the patients with coronary heart disease. There were no statistically significant differences in RMS between patients with MSD and isolated CHD, despite lower values in the group with MSD. Correlation analysis revealed an association between RMS and muscle function

Соматическая патология у жителей Ханты-Мансийского автономного округа – Югры

Аim. To study the 8-year dynamics of somatic pathology in residents of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug – Yugra.Materials and methods. The article analyzes the migration of the population of the Far North and the dynamics of the incidence of chronic non-infectious pathology among residents of territories equated to the Far North – the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug – Yugra, based on literature data and officially registered statistics for clinical and statistical groups for the period 2010–2017.Results. The analysis revealed the leading groups of somatic pathology in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug – Yugra. The indicators of population dynamics of the territories of the Far North of Russia were estimated. Conclusions. The study identified patterns in different flows of the Russian population in and from the North, the incidence rate (defined by the leading group of diseases) and its dynamics, characteristic of the territories equated to the Far North. The obtained data make it possible to identify priority research areas aimed at analyzing the frequency of diseases of internal organs in the territories equated to the Far North, the features of their course and outcomes as well as to develop effective programs of primary and secondary prevention of these diseases.Цель. Изучение 8-летней динамики соматической патологии у жителей Ханты-Мансийского автономного округа – Югры (ХМАО – Югры).Материалы и методы. Проведен анализ миграции населения Крайнего Севера, изучена динамика  заболеваемости хронической неинфекционной патологией у жителей территории, приравненной к Крайнему Северу, – ХМАО – Югры. Использованы данные литературы и официально регистрируемой статистики по клинико-статистическим группам за период 2010–2017 гг.Результаты. Выявлены лидирующие группы соматической патологии в Ханты-Мансийском автономном округе – Югре. Оценены показатели динамики населения территорий Крайнего Севера России.Заключение. Полученные данные позволяют определить приоритеты для научных исследований, направленных  на анализ частоты болезней внутренних органов на территориях, приравненных к Крайнему Северу, особенностей  их течения и исходов, а также разработку эффективных программ первичной и вторичной профилактики этих заболеваний

Оценивание рисков дефолта и реальных опционов

Запропоновано новий метод оцінювання ризиків дефолту та реальних опціонів, який полягає в тому, що інвестор як джерело фінансування за наявності певної інформації про роботу фірми оцінює можливість її дефолту.A new method for estimation on default risks and real options is proposed: an investor, as a source of financing, has certain information about functioning the company and estimates its probability of default.Предложен новый метод оценивания рисков дефолта и реальных опционов, состоящий в том, что инвестор как источник финансирования, имея некоторую информацию о работе фирмы, оценивает возможность ее дефолта

Assessment of state services quality and availability in the socio-cultural sphere

© 2016, Econjournals. All rights reserved.The relevance of the presented research is caused by distribution of independent tools to assess public administration of the socio-cultural sphere by public nongovernmental organizations and scientific institutes. The objective of the paper is to develop a technique to assess quality and availability of state services in the socio-cultural sphere as components of public administration. An institutional approach has become a leading one; it allows to consider state services quality and availability assessment in the socio-cultural sphere as a complex indicator of the content quality of a resulting effect and quality of services obtained; it is also connected with the comfort of service rendering and their availability for consumers. The elaborated technique of state services quality and availability assessment in the socio-cultural sphere includes the following criteria: The level of state services quality; the level of state services availability; the level of trust that consumers have in service providers. The technique is directed to identify effective measures to provide consumers with available and high-quality state services in the socio-cultural sphere rendered by state bodies and their departments according to the results of a calendar year

Arrangement of cooperation between labour market and regional vocational education system

© 2018, Emerald Publishing Limited. Purpose: Modern educational environment in the system of vocational education focuses on the requirements of labour market and those of employers to the content of graduates’ professional competencies. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to develop practical guidance on the arrangement of cooperation between labour market and regional vocational education system. Design/methodology/approach: Participative approach allowed considering the cooperation between labour market and regional system of vocational education as the process aimed at creating management tools for formation, use, development of human resources. The research involved 300 teachers, 400 students, 100 employers, who found out the effectiveness criteria for the cooperation between labour market and vocational education system. Findings: The findings reveal national models characteristics and universal tools for cooperation between vocational education institutions and enterprise. National models characteristics allow identifying the most advantageous cooperation tools; comparing suggested tools with the experience of others and thereby assessing their relevance and implementation risks. Research limitations/implications: The research results allow us to plan strategies for further studies of this problem, which are related to the development of models for cooperation between labour market and vocational education system. Practical implications: The identification of universal tools for cooperation between vocational education institutions and enterprise promotes the integration of national vocational education systems into national educational space. The materials of the paper can be useful for university leaders and professors; employees of centres for professional advancement and retraining in selecting and structuring the content of academic and teaching staff’s advanced training. Social implications: The revealed criteria contribute to vocational education programmes integration, connection between professional and educational standards, students’ professional identity. Originality/value: The effectiveness of the cooperation between labour market and vocational education system will be improved by studying national models and identifying the most advantageous cooperation tools (modular training, voluntary social/ecological year, educational resources integration, state and public management, clustering vocational education institutions and industry companies). This will allow comparing the suggested tools for collaboration between labour market and vocational education system with the experience of others and thereby assess their relevance and implementation risks. Improving the cooperation between labour market and vocational education system will be successful provided that universal tools for cooperation (socio-economic, educational, practical, innovative and technological) are identified, which promotes the integration of national vocational education systems into national educational space. The effectiveness of cooperation between labour market and vocational education system will increase on condition of criterion assessment (clustering, subjectivity, transdisciplinarity), promoting vocational education programmes integration, connection between professional and educational standards, students’ professional identity, students’ engagement in the development and implementation of research and production projects, stepped formation of professional competencies

Comparative analysis of immunogenetic characteristics of potential hematopoietic stem cell donors from the registries of two Russian megapolises

Efficacy of search for the unrelated compatible transplant donors depends on a number of factors. Of most importance are the standards of primary HLA typing, and the immunogenetic diversity of the donor pool. Timely donor selection guarantees the optimal timing for stem cell transplantation. This factor exerts positive influence upon the transplantation outcomes. In 2019, The Bone Marrow Donors Registry at the Russian Research Institute of Haematology and Transfusiology has implemented HLA-typing for HLA-A, HLA-B, HLA-C, HLA-DRB1, HLA-DQB1 genes as a standard for primary immunogenetic examination, in order to reduce the donor search period. The aim of our study was to evaluate the HLA typing results for potential stem cell donors at our Registry as compared with immunogenetic profile of donors at the Registries arranged in two Russian megapolises. All currently known groups of HLA-C, HLA-DRB1, HLA-DQB1 gene alleles, 19 of 21 open groups of HLA-A gene alleles, 34 of 36 known groups of HLA-B gene alleles were screened in the donors from our Registry. The most common HLA alleles groups were as follows: A*02 (0.2957), A*03 (0.1432), A*01 (0.1155), A*24 (0.1128); B*07 (0.1282), B*35 (0.1084), B*44 (0.0921), B*18 (0.0745); C*07 (0.2738), C*04 (0.1361), C*12 (0.1202), C*03 (0.1134), C*06 (0.1127); DRB1*15 (0.1445), DRB1*07 (0.1420), DRB1*13 (0.1271), DRB1*01 (0.1269), DRB1*11 (0.1216); DQB1*03 (0.3517), DQB1*06 (0.2269). A total of 1702 HLA-A*-B*-C*-DRB1*-DQB1*-haplotypes were revealed in our donor pool. The frequency of nine HLA-haplotypes exceeded 0.01: A*01-B*08-C*07-DRB1*03-DQB1*02 (0.0366), A*03-B*07-C*07-DRB1*15-DQB1*06 (0.0269), A*03-B*35-C*04-DRB1*01-DQB1*05 (0.0238), A*02-B*13-C*06-DRB1*07-DQB1*02 (0.0204), A*02-B*07-C*07-DRB1*15-DQB1*06 (0.0184), A*25-B*18-C*12-DRB1*15-DQB1*06 (0.0127), A*02-B*18-C*07-DRB1*11-DQB1*03 (0.0126), A*02-B*15-C*03-DRB1*04-DQB1*03 (0.0123), A*02-B*41-C*17-DRB1*13-DQB1*03 (0.0109). We carried out a comparative analysis of the HLA-haplotypes distribution for the donors of three Russian registers: Russian Research Institute of Haematology and Transfusiology (St. Petersburg); First St. Petersburg State I. Pavlov Medical University (St. Petersburg); National Medical Research Center for Hematology (Moscow). The six most common HLA-haplotypes among the donors from three Russian registers had the same rank positions and frequencies. The differences of some less common HLA-haplotypes distribution were determined. The results of our study indicate the immunogenetic diversity of the donor pool the Registry of Russian Research Institute of Haematology and Transfusiology. This fact, along with usage of international standards for primary immunogenetic examination is a prerequisite for effective donor search for the patients requiring stem cell transplantation

Development strategy of service sector in conditions of federal states entities autonomy increasing

© 2016, Econjournals. All rights reserved.The relevance of the study is caused by the necessity to develop the sphere of services as a component of balanced socio-economic development of Federal State’s territories. The purpose of the paper is to define strategies for the development of services in conditions of increasing independence of the Federal State’s entities. A leading approach is the institutional one that considers the strategy of development of service sector in the Federal State as long-term programs of transition to innovative socially oriented type of economic development, reducing interregional differentiation in the level and quality of life of the population, creating equal opportunities for citizens and promoting human development. In the conditions of Federal State entities’ autonomy increasing the strategy of development in the sphere of services consists of citizens’ life conditions and social environment’ quality improving; accelerated development of human potential; competitiveness improving of human and ensuring it economic social sectors’ capital; development of competitive service markets; improving of the efficiency of politico-legal institutions providing social services to the population. Strategies’ defining for the development of services in the conditions of Federal State entities’ autonomy increasing is based on the principles of subsidiarity, sustainability, selectivity, fractals and transvers. Certain strategies of development of services are aimed at reducing territorial socio-economic differentiation to the level, caused by objective differences of the Federation’s entities, as well as ensuring the balance of the revenue base and expenditure commitments

КАВИТАЦИОННАЯ ОБРАБОТКА ДИЗЕЛЬНОЙ ФРАКЦИИ НЕФТИ

The results of investigation on the effect of mechanochemical treatment of the diesel fraction on its physicochemical characteristics are presented. Mechanochemical treatment of the diesel fraction was achieved by creating a cavitation effect in the hydrodynamic regime. The studies were carried out in the range of pressure gradients up to 50 MPa, the number of treatment cycles varied from 1 to 5, the temperature of raw material at the apparatus inlet was 0 0С. It is shown that the effect of cavitation is manifested not only in the processing of high-boiling hydrocarbons, but also in a middle distillate directions. So, as a result of the cavitation effect, the density of the diesel fraction and its pour point decrease, and the fractional composition changes. It is suggested that these changes are associated with hydrocarbon degradation. The collapse of gas bubbles leads to a local increase in the temperature of the medium to 800 0C, which, in turn, leads to the destruction of hydrocarbons. Increasing the pressure gradient of the hydrodynamic flow enhances the noted effect. Increasing the number of treatment cycles reduces the effect achieved. A possible reason is the destruction of hydrocarbons formed in the first stage of processing and the formation of polycyclic and aromatic structures. The results presented in the article extend ideas about cavitation regularities in the hydrocarbon environmentПредставлены результаты исследований влияния механохимической обработки дизельной фракции нефти на её физико-химические характеристики. Механохимическая обработка дизельной фракции достигалась созданием в гидродинамическом режимекавитационного эффекта. Исследования проводились в диапазоне градиентов давлений до 50 МПа, число циклов обработки варьировалось от 1 до 5, температура сырья на входе в аппарат - 0 0С. Показано, что эффект от кавитационного воздействия проявляется не только при обработке высококипящих углеводородов, но и на среднедистиллятных фракциях. Так, в результате кавитационного воздействия снижается плотность дизельной фракции, температура её застывания, происходит изменение фракционного состава. Высказано предположение о том, что эти изменения связаны с деструкцией углеводородов. Схлопывание пузырьков газа приводит к локальному повышению температуры среды до 800 0С, что, в свою очередь, и приводит к деструкции углеводородов. Повышение градиента давлений гидродинамического потока усиливает отмеченный эффект. При увеличении числа циклов обработки отмечено снижение достигнутого эффекта. Возможная причина заключается в деструкции углеводородов, образовавшихся на первом этапе обработки и образовании полициклических и ароматических структур. Представленные в статье результаты расширяют представления о закономерностях протекания кавитации в среде углеводородов