International external validation of a stratification tool to identify branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms at lowest risk of progression

BACKGROUND: Identifying branch‐duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD‐IPMNs) at lowest risk of progression may allow for a reduced intensity of surveillance. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to externally validate the previously developed Dutch‐American Risk stratification Tool (DART‐1; https://rtools.mayo.edu/DART/), which identifies cysts at low risk of developing worrisome features (WFs) or high‐risk stigmata (HRS). METHODS: Three prospective cohorts of individuals under surveillance for BD‐IPMNs were combined, independent from the original development cohort. We assessed the performance (discrimination and calibration) of DART‐1, a multivariable Cox‐proportional logistic regression model with five predictors for the development of WFs or HRS. RESULTS: Of 832 individuals (mean age 77 years, SD 11.5) under surveillance for a median of 40 months (IQR 44), 163 (20%) developed WFs or HRS. DART‐1's discriminative ability (C‐statistic 0.68) was similar to that in the development cohort (0.64–0.72) and showed moderate calibration. DART‐1 adequately estimated the risk for patients in the middle risk quintile, and slightly underestimated it in the lowest quintiles. Their range of predicted versus observed 3‐year risk was 0%–0% versus 0%–3.7% for Q1; 0.3%–0.4% versus 3%–11% for Q2; and 2.6%–3% versus 2.4%–9.8% for Q3. The development of WFs or HRS was associated with pancreatic cancer (p < 0.001). Vice versa, in absence of WFs or HRS, the risk of malignancy was low (0.3%). CONCLUSIONS: The performance of DART‐1 to predict the development of WFs or HRS in BD‐IPMN was validated in an external international cohort, with a discriminative ability equal as in the development cohort. Risk estimations were most accurate for patients with BD‐IPMNs in the middle risk quintile and slightly underestimated in the lowest quintiles

First-pass perfusion of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with 64-detector-row CT: a study of technique repeatability and intra- and interobserver variability

This study was done to prospectively assess the repeatability and intra- and interobserver variability of first-pass perfusion with 64-detector-row computed tomography (CT) in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with a maximum diameter of up to 8 cm

Perfusion CT best predicts outcome after radioembolization of liver metastases: a comparison of radionuclide and CT imaging techniques

OBJECTIVE: To determine the best predictor for the response to and survival with transarterial radioembolisation (RE) with (90)yttrium microspheres in patients with liver metastases. METHODS: Forty consecutive patients with liver metastases undergoing RE were evaluated with multiphase CT, perfusion CT and (99m)Tc-MAA SPECT. Arterial perfusion (AP) from perfusion CT, HU values from the arterial (aHU) and portal venous phase (pvHU) CT, and (99m)Tc-MAA uptake ratio of metastases were determined. Morphologic response was evaluated after 4 months and available in 30 patients. One-year survival was calculated with Kaplan-Meier curves. RESULTS: We found significant differences between responders and non-responders for AP (P 20 ml/100 ml/min had a significantly (P = 0.01) higher 1-year survival, whereas an aHU value >55 HU did not discriminate survival (P = 0.12). The Cox proportional hazard model revealed AP as the only significant (P = 0.02) independent predictor of survival. CONCLUSION: Compared to arterial and portal venous enhancement and the (99m)Tc-MAA uptake ratio of liver metastases, the AP from perfusion CT is the best predictor of morphologic response to and 1-year survival with RE. KEY POINTS: • Perfusion CT allows for calculation of the liver arterial perfusion. • Arterial perfusion of liver metastases differs between responders and non-responders to RE. • Arterial perfusion can be used to select patients responding to RE

Predicting response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in primary breast cancer using volumetric helical perfusion computed tomography: a preliminary study

To investigate whether CT-derived vascular parameters in primary breast cancer predict complete pathological response (pCR) to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC).Twenty prospective patients with primary breast cancer due for NAC underwent volumetric helical perfusion CT to derive whole tumour regional blood flow (BF), blood volume (BV) and flow extraction product (FE) by deconvolution analysis. A pCR was achieved if no residual invasive cancer was detectable on pathological examination. Relationships between baseline BF, BV, FE, tumour size and volume, and pCR were examined using the Mann-Whitney U test. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to assess the parameter best able to predict response. Intra- and inter-observer variability was assessed using Bland-Altman statistics.Seventeen out of 20 patients completed NAC with four achieving a pCR. Baseline BF and FE were higher in patients who achieved a pCR compared with those who did not (P = 0.032); tumour size and volume were not significantly different (P &gt; 0.05). ROC analysis revealed that BF and FE were able to identify responders effectively (AUC = 0.87; P = 0.03). There was good intra- and inter-observer agreement.Primary breast cancers which exhibited higher levels of perfusion before treatment were more likely to achieve a pCR to NAC.aEuro cent CT-derived vascular parameters may be useful in breast cancer treatment.aEuro cent Perfusion CT can help predict response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in breast cancer.aEuro cent Baseline blood flow and flow extraction product are higher in complete pathological responders.</p

Genetic and non-genetic risk factors for early-onset pancreatic cancer

Background: Early-onset pancreatic cancer (EOPC) represents 5–10% of all pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) cases, and the etiology of this form is poorly understood. It is not clear if established PDAC risk factors have the same relevance for younger patients. This study aims to identify genetic and non-genetic risk factors specific to EOPC. Methods: A genome-wide association study was performed, analysing 912 EOPC cases and 10 222 controls, divided into discovery and replication phases. Furthermore, the associations between a polygenic risk score (PRS), smoking, alcohol consumption, type 2 diabetes and PDAC risk were also assessed. Results: Six novel SNPs were associated with EOPC risk in the discovery phase, but not in the replication phase. The PRS, smoking, and diabetes affected EOPC risk. The OR comparing current smokers to never-smokers was 2.92 (95% CI 1.69–5.04, P = 1.44 × 10−4). For diabetes, the corresponding OR was 14.95 (95% CI 3.41–65.50, P = 3.58 × 10−4). Conclusion: In conclusion, we did not identify novel genetic variants associated specifically with EOPC, and we found that established PDAC risk variants do not have a strong age-dependent effect. Furthermore, we add to the evidence pointing to the role of smoking and diabetes in EOPC