703 research outputs found
Mean Field Voter Model of Election to the House of Representatives in Japan
In this study, we propose a mechanical model of a plurality election based on
a mean field voter model. We assume that there are three candidates in each
electoral district, i.e., one from the ruling party, one from the main
opposition party, and one from other political parties. The voters are
classified as fixed supporters and herding (floating) voters with ratios of
and , respectively. Fixed supporters make decisions based on their
information and herding voters make the same choice as another randomly
selected voter. The equilibrium vote-share probability density of herding
voters follows a Dirichlet distribution. We estimate the composition of fixed
supporters in each electoral district and using data from elections to the
House of Representatives in Japan (43rd to 47th). The spatial inhomogeneity of
fixed supporters explains the long-range spatial and temporal correlations. The
estimated values of are close to the estimates obtained from a survey.Comment: 11 pages, 7 figure
Eigenbehaviors: Identifying Structure in Routine
Longitudinal behavioral data generally contains a significant amount of structure. In this work, we identify the structure inherent in daily behavior with models that can accurately analyze, predict, and cluster multimodal data from individuals and communities within the social network of a population. We represent this behavioral structure by the principal components of the complete behavioral dataset, a set of characteristic vectors we have termed eigenbehaviors. In our model, an individual’s behavior over a specific day can be approximated by a weighted sum of his or her primary eigenbehaviors. When these weights are calculated halfway through a day, they can be used to predict the day’s remaining behaviors with 79% accuracy for our test subjects. Additionally, we demonstrate the potential for this dimensionality reduction technique to infer community affiliations within the subjects’ social network by clustering individuals into a “behavior space” spanned by a set of their aggregate eigenbehaviors. These behavior spaces make it possible to determine the behavioral similarity between both individuals and groups, enabling 96% classification accuracy of community affiliations within the population-level social network. Additionally, the distance between individuals in the behavior space can be used as an estimate for relational ties such as friendship, suggesting strong behavioral homophily amongst the subjects. This approach capitalizes on the large amount of rich data previously captured during the Reality Mining study from mobile phones continuously logging location, proximate phones, and communication of 100 subjects at MIT over the course of 9 months. As wearable sensors continue to generate these types of rich, longitudinal datasets, dimensionality reduction techniques such as eigenbehaviors will play an increasingly important role in behavioral research
COVID-19 policy analysis: labour structure dictates lockdown mobility behaviour
Countries and cities around the world have resorted to unprecedented mobility restrictions to combat COVID-19 transmission. Here we exploit a natural experiment whereby Colombian cities implemented varied lockdown policies based on ID number and gender to analyse the impact of these policies on urban mobility. Using mobile phone data, we find that the restrictiveness of cities' mobility quotas (the share of residents allowed out daily according to policy advice) does not correlate with mobility reduction. Instead, we find that larger, wealthier cities with more formalized and complex industrial structure experienced greater reductions in mobility. Within cities, wealthier residents are more likely to reduce mobility, and commuters are especially more likely to stay at home when their work is located in wealthy or commercially/industrially formalized neighbourhoods. Hence, our results indicate that cities' employment characteristics and work-from-home capabilities are the primary determinants of mobility reduction. This finding underscores the need for mitigations aimed at lower income/informal workers, and sheds light on critical dependencies between socio-economic classes in Latin American cities
Dynamical and bursty interactions in social networks
We present a modeling framework for dynamical and bursty contact networks
made of agents in social interaction. We consider agents' behavior at short
time scales, in which the contact network is formed by disconnected cliques of
different sizes. At each time a random agent can make a transition from being
isolated to being part of a group, or vice-versa. Different distributions of
contact times and inter-contact times between individuals are obtained by
considering transition probabilities with memory effects, i.e. the transition
probabilities for each agent depend both on its state (isolated or interacting)
and on the time elapsed since the last change of state. The model lends itself
to analytical and numerical investigations. The modeling framework can be
easily extended, and paves the way for systematic investigations of dynamical
processes occurring on rapidly evolving dynamical networks, such as the
propagation of an information, or spreading of diseases
Analytical reasoning task reveals limits of social learning in networks
Social learning -by observing and copying others- is a highly successful
cultural mechanism for adaptation, outperforming individual information
acquisition and experience. Here, we investigate social learning in the context
of the uniquely human capacity for reflective, analytical reasoning. A hallmark
of the human mind is our ability to engage analytical reasoning, and suppress
false associative intuitions. Through a set of lab-based network experiments,
we find that social learning fails to propagate this cognitive strategy. When
people make false intuitive conclusions, and are exposed to the analytic output
of their peers, they recognize and adopt this correct output. But they fail to
engage analytical reasoning in similar subsequent tasks. Thus, humans exhibit
an 'unreflective copying bias,' which limits their social learning to the
output, rather than the process, of their peers' reasoning -even when doing so
requires minimal effort and no technical skill. In contrast to much recent work
on observation-based social learning, which emphasizes the propagation of
successful behavior through copying, our findings identify a limit on the power
of social networks in situations that require analytical reasoning
Mobile Communication Signatures of Unemployment
The mapping of populations socio-economic well-being is highly constrained by
the logistics of censuses and surveys. Consequently, spatially detailed changes
across scales of days, weeks, or months, or even year to year, are difficult to
assess; thus the speed of which policies can be designed and evaluated is
limited. However, recent studies have shown the value of mobile phone data as
an enabling methodology for demographic modeling and measurement. In this work,
we investigate whether indicators extracted from mobile phone usage can reveal
information about the socio-economical status of microregions such as districts
(i.e., average spatial resolution < 2.7km). For this we examine anonymized
mobile phone metadata combined with beneficiaries records from unemployment
benefit program. We find that aggregated activity, social, and mobility
patterns strongly correlate with unemployment. Furthermore, we construct a
simple model to produce accurate reconstruction of district level unemployment
from their mobile communication patterns alone. Our results suggest that
reliable and cost-effective economical indicators could be built based on
passively collected and anonymized mobile phone data. With similar data being
collected every day by telecommunication services across the world,
survey-based methods of measuring community socioeconomic status could
potentially be augmented or replaced by such passive sensing methods in the
future
High resolution dynamical mapping of social interactions with active RFID
In this paper we present an experimental framework to gather data on
face-to-face social interactions between individuals, with a high spatial and
temporal resolution. We use active Radio Frequency Identification (RFID)
devices that assess contacts with one another by exchanging low-power radio
packets. When individuals wear the beacons as a badge, a persistent radio
contact between the RFID devices can be used as a proxy for a social
interaction between individuals. We present the results of a pilot study
recently performed during a conference, and a subsequent preliminary data
analysis, that provides an assessment of our method and highlights its
versatility and applicability in many areas concerned with human dynamics
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