Mean Field Voter Model of Election to the House of Representatives in Japan

In this study, we propose a mechanical model of a plurality election based on a mean field voter model. We assume that there are three candidates in each electoral district, i.e., one from the ruling party, one from the main opposition party, and one from other political parties. The voters are classified as fixed supporters and herding (floating) voters with ratios of $1-p$ and $p$, respectively. Fixed supporters make decisions based on their information and herding voters make the same choice as another randomly selected voter. The equilibrium vote-share probability density of herding voters follows a Dirichlet distribution. We estimate the composition of fixed supporters in each electoral district and $p$ using data from elections to the House of Representatives in Japan (43rd to 47th). The spatial inhomogeneity of fixed supporters explains the long-range spatial and temporal correlations. The estimated values of $p$ are close to the estimates obtained from a survey.Comment: 11 pages, 7 figure

Eigenbehaviors: Identifying Structure in Routine

Longitudinal behavioral data generally contains a significant amount of structure. In this work, we identify the structure inherent in daily behavior with models that can accurately analyze, predict, and cluster multimodal data from individuals and communities within the social network of a population. We represent this behavioral structure by the principal components of the complete behavioral dataset, a set of characteristic vectors we have termed eigenbehaviors. In our model, an individual’s behavior over a specific day can be approximated by a weighted sum of his or her primary eigenbehaviors. When these weights are calculated halfway through a day, they can be used to predict the day’s remaining behaviors with 79% accuracy for our test subjects. Additionally, we demonstrate the potential for this dimensionality reduction technique to infer community affiliations within the subjects’ social network by clustering individuals into a “behavior space” spanned by a set of their aggregate eigenbehaviors. These behavior spaces make it possible to determine the behavioral similarity between both individuals and groups, enabling 96% classification accuracy of community affiliations within the population-level social network. Additionally, the distance between individuals in the behavior space can be used as an estimate for relational ties such as friendship, suggesting strong behavioral homophily amongst the subjects. This approach capitalizes on the large amount of rich data previously captured during the Reality Mining study from mobile phones continuously logging location, proximate phones, and communication of 100 subjects at MIT over the course of 9 months. As wearable sensors continue to generate these types of rich, longitudinal datasets, dimensionality reduction techniques such as eigenbehaviors will play an increasingly important role in behavioral research

COVID-19 policy analysis: labour structure dictates lockdown mobility behaviour

Countries and cities around the world have resorted to unprecedented mobility restrictions to combat COVID-19 transmission. Here we exploit a natural experiment whereby Colombian cities implemented varied lockdown policies based on ID number and gender to analyse the impact of these policies on urban mobility. Using mobile phone data, we find that the restrictiveness of cities' mobility quotas (the share of residents allowed out daily according to policy advice) does not correlate with mobility reduction. Instead, we find that larger, wealthier cities with more formalized and complex industrial structure experienced greater reductions in mobility. Within cities, wealthier residents are more likely to reduce mobility, and commuters are especially more likely to stay at home when their work is located in wealthy or commercially/industrially formalized neighbourhoods. Hence, our results indicate that cities' employment characteristics and work-from-home capabilities are the primary determinants of mobility reduction. This finding underscores the need for mitigations aimed at lower income/informal workers, and sheds light on critical dependencies between socio-economic classes in Latin American cities

Dynamical and bursty interactions in social networks

We present a modeling framework for dynamical and bursty contact networks made of agents in social interaction. We consider agents' behavior at short time scales, in which the contact network is formed by disconnected cliques of different sizes. At each time a random agent can make a transition from being isolated to being part of a group, or vice-versa. Different distributions of contact times and inter-contact times between individuals are obtained by considering transition probabilities with memory effects, i.e. the transition probabilities for each agent depend both on its state (isolated or interacting) and on the time elapsed since the last change of state. The model lends itself to analytical and numerical investigations. The modeling framework can be easily extended, and paves the way for systematic investigations of dynamical processes occurring on rapidly evolving dynamical networks, such as the propagation of an information, or spreading of diseases

Analytical reasoning task reveals limits of social learning in networks

Social learning -by observing and copying others- is a highly successful cultural mechanism for adaptation, outperforming individual information acquisition and experience. Here, we investigate social learning in the context of the uniquely human capacity for reflective, analytical reasoning. A hallmark of the human mind is our ability to engage analytical reasoning, and suppress false associative intuitions. Through a set of lab-based network experiments, we find that social learning fails to propagate this cognitive strategy. When people make false intuitive conclusions, and are exposed to the analytic output of their peers, they recognize and adopt this correct output. But they fail to engage analytical reasoning in similar subsequent tasks. Thus, humans exhibit an 'unreflective copying bias,' which limits their social learning to the output, rather than the process, of their peers' reasoning -even when doing so requires minimal effort and no technical skill. In contrast to much recent work on observation-based social learning, which emphasizes the propagation of successful behavior through copying, our findings identify a limit on the power of social networks in situations that require analytical reasoning

Mobile Communication Signatures of Unemployment

The mapping of populations socio-economic well-being is highly constrained by the logistics of censuses and surveys. Consequently, spatially detailed changes across scales of days, weeks, or months, or even year to year, are difficult to assess; thus the speed of which policies can be designed and evaluated is limited. However, recent studies have shown the value of mobile phone data as an enabling methodology for demographic modeling and measurement. In this work, we investigate whether indicators extracted from mobile phone usage can reveal information about the socio-economical status of microregions such as districts (i.e., average spatial resolution < 2.7km). For this we examine anonymized mobile phone metadata combined with beneficiaries records from unemployment benefit program. We find that aggregated activity, social, and mobility patterns strongly correlate with unemployment. Furthermore, we construct a simple model to produce accurate reconstruction of district level unemployment from their mobile communication patterns alone. Our results suggest that reliable and cost-effective economical indicators could be built based on passively collected and anonymized mobile phone data. With similar data being collected every day by telecommunication services across the world, survey-based methods of measuring community socioeconomic status could potentially be augmented or replaced by such passive sensing methods in the future

High resolution dynamical mapping of social interactions with active RFID

In this paper we present an experimental framework to gather data on face-to-face social interactions between individuals, with a high spatial and temporal resolution. We use active Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) devices that assess contacts with one another by exchanging low-power radio packets. When individuals wear the beacons as a badge, a persistent radio contact between the RFID devices can be used as a proxy for a social interaction between individuals. We present the results of a pilot study recently performed during a conference, and a subsequent preliminary data analysis, that provides an assessment of our method and highlights its versatility and applicability in many areas concerned with human dynamics