Assessing the potential hydrological impact of the Gibe III Dam on Lake Turkana water level using multi-source satellite data

Lake Turkana, the largest desert lake in the world, is fed by ungauged or poorly gauged river systems. To meet the demand of electricity in the East African region, Ethiopia is currently building the Gibe III hydroelectric dam on the Omo River, which supplies more than 80% of the inflows to Lake Turkana. On completion, the Gibe III dam will be the tallest dam in Africa with a height of 241 m. However, the nature of interactions and potential impacts of regulated inflows to Lake Turkana are not well understood due to its remote location and unavailability of reliable in situ datasets. In this study, we used 12 yr (1998–2009) of existing multi-source satellite and model-assimilated global weather data. We used a calibrated multi-source satellite data-driven water balance model for Lake Turkana that takes into account model routed runoff, lake/reservoir evapotranspiration, direct rain on lakes/reservoirs and releases from the dam to compute lake water levels. The model evaluates the impact of the Gibe III dam using three different approaches – a historical approach, a rainfall based approach, and a statistical approach to generate rainfall-runoff scenarios. All the approaches provided comparable and consistent results. Model results indicated that the hydrological impact of the Gibe III dam on Lake Turkana would vary with the magnitude and distribution of rainfall post-dam commencement. On average, the reservoir would take up to 8–10 months, after commencement, to reach a minimum operation level of 201 m depth of water. During the dam filling period, the lake level would drop up to 1–2 m (95% confidence) compared to the lake level modeled without the dam. The lake level variability caused by regulated inflows after the dam commissioning were found to be within the natural variability of the lake of 4.8 m. Moreover, modeling results indicated that the hydrological impact of the Gibe III dam would depend on the initial lake level at the time of dam commencement. Areas along the Lake Turkana shoreline that are vulnerable to fluctuations in lake levels due to the Gibe III dam were also identified. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of using existing multi-source satellite data in a basic modeling framework to assess the potential hydrological impact of an upstream dam on a terminal downstream lake. The results obtained from this study could also be used to evaluate alternative dam-filling scenarios and assess the potential impact of the dam on Lake Turkana under different operational strategies

Corrigendum to "Assessing the potential hydrological impact of the Gibe III Dam on Lake Turkana water level using multi-source satellite data" published in Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 3561–3578, 2012

No abstract available

Drought Monitoring and Assessment: Remote Sensing and Modeling Approaches for the Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Drought monitoring is an essential component of drought risk management. It is usually carried out using drought indices/indicators that are continuous functions of rainfall and other hydrometeorological variables. This chapter presents a few examples of how remote sensing and hydrologic modeling techniques are being used to generate a suite of drought monitoring indicators at dekadal (10-day), monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales for several selected regions around the world. Satellite-based rainfall estimates are being used to produce drought indicators such as standardized precipitation index, dryness indicators, and start of season analysis. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index is being used to monitor vegetation condition. Several satellite data products are combined using agrohydrologic models to produce multiple short- and long-term indicators of droughts. All the data sets are being produced and updated in near-real time to provide information about the onset, progression, extent, and intensity of drought conditions. The data and products produced are available for download from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) data portal at http:// earlywarning.usgs.gov. The availability of timely information and products support the decision-making processes in drought-related hazard assessment, monitoring, and management with the FEWS NET. The drought-hazard monitoring approach perfected by the U.S. Geological Survey for FEWS NET through the integration of satellite data and hydrologic modeling can form the basis for similar decision support systems. Such systems can operationally produce reliable and useful regional information that is relevant for local, district-level decision making

Influence of Resolution in Irrigated Area Mapping and Area Estimation

The overarching goal of this paper was to determine how irrigated areas change with resolution (or scale) of imagery. Specific objectives investigated were to (a) map irrigated areas using four distinct spatial resolutions (or scales), (b) determine how irrigated areas change with resolutions, and (c) establish the causes of differences in resolution-based irrigated areas. The study was conducted in the very large Krishna River basin (India), which has a high degree of formal contiguous, and informal fragmented irrigated areas. The irrigated areas were mapped using satellite sensor data at four distinct resolutions: (a) NOAA AVHRR Pathfinder 10,000 m, (b) Terra MODIS 500 m, (c) Terra MODIS 250 m, and (d) Landsat ETM+ 30 m. The proportion of irrigated areas relative to Landsat 30 m derived irrigated areas (9.36 million hectares for the Krishna basin) were (a) 95 percent using MODIS 250 m, (b) 93 percent using MODIS 500 m, and (c) 86 percent using AVHRR 10,000 m. In this study, it was found that the precise location of the irrigated areas were better established using finer spatial resolution data. A strong relationship (R2 = 0.74 to 0.95) was observed between irrigated areas determined using various resolutions. This study proved the hypotheses that “the finer the spatial resolution of the sensor used, greater was the irrigated area derived,” since at finer spatial resolutions, fragmented areas are detected better. Accuracies and errors were established consistently for three classes (surface water irrigated, ground water/conjunctive use irrigated, and nonirrigated) across the four resolutions mentioned above. The results showed that the Landsat data provided significantly higher overall accuracies (84 percent) when compared to MODIS 500 m (77 percent), MODIS 250 m (79 percent), and AVHRR 10,000 m (63 percent)

Measuring Spatio-temporal Trends in Residential Landscape Irrigation Extent and Rate in Los Angeles, California Using SPOT-5 Satellite Imagery

Irrigation is a large component of urban water budgets in semi-arid regions and is critical for the management of landscape vegetation and water resources. This is particularly true for Mediterranean climate cities such as Los Angeles, where water availability is limited during dry summers. These interactions were examined by using 10-m resolution satellite imagery and a database of monthly water use records for all residential water customers in Los Angeles in order to map vegetation greenness, the extent and distribution of irrigated areas, and irrigation rates. A water conservation ratio between rates of irrigation and vegetation water demand was calculated to assess over-irrigation. The analyses were conducted for the water years (WY) 2005–2007, which included wet, average, and dry extremes of annual rainfall. Although outdoor water usage was highest in the dry year, vegetation greenness could not be maintained as well as in wetter years, suggesting that lower greenness was due to water stress. However, annual rainfall from WY 2005 to 2007 did not significantly influence the variability in the magnitude and spatial pattern of irrigation, with mean irrigated rates ranging only from 81 to 86 mm. The water conservation ratio showed that 7 % of the postal carrier routes across the city were over-irrigated in the dry year, but 43 % were over-irrigated in the wet year. This was largely because the climatic demand for water by vegetation decreased in wet years, but irrigation rates changed little from year-to-year. This overwatering can be addressed by water conservation, planning and public education, especially in the current California drought. The approach demonstrated here should be transferable to other cities in semi-arid climates

Analysis of long-term trends (1950–2009) in precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient in major urban watersheds in the United States

This study investigates the long-term trends in precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient in major urban watersheds in the United States. The seasonal Mann–Kendall trend test was performed on monthly precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient data from 1950 to 2009 obtained from 62 urban watersheds covering 21 major urban centers in the United States. The results indicate that only five out of 21 urban centers in the United States showed an uptrend in precipitation. Twelve urban centers showed an uptrend in runoff coefficient. However, six urban centers did not show any trend in runoff coefficient, and three urban centers showed a significant downtrend. The highest rate of change in precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient was observed in the Houston urban watershed. Based on the results obtained, we also attributed plausible causes for the trends. Our analysis indicated that while a human only influence is observed in most of the urban watersheds, a combined climate and human influence is observed in the central United States

A multi-source satellite data approach for modelling Lake Turkana water level: calibration and validation using satellite altimetry data

Lake Turkana is one of the largest desert lakes in the world and is characterized by high degrees of inter- and intra-annual fluctuations. The hydrology and water balance of this lake have not been well understood due to its remote location and unavailability of reliable ground truth datasets. Managing surface water resources is a great challenge in areas where in-situ data are either limited or unavailable. In this study, multi-source satellite-driven data such as satellite-based rainfall estimates, modelled runoff, evapotranspiration, and a digital elevation dataset were used to model Lake Turkana water levels from 1998 to 2009. Due to the unavailability of reliable lake level data, an approach is presented to calibrate and validate the water balance model of Lake Turkana using a composite lake level product of TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and ENVISAT satellite altimetry data. Model validation results showed that the satellite-driven water balance model can satisfactorily capture the patterns and seasonal variations of the Lake Turkana water level fluctuations with a Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.90 and a Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE) of 0.80 during the validation period (2004–2009). Model error estimates were within 10% of the natural variability of the lake. Our analysis indicated that fluctuations in Lake Turkana water levels are mainly driven by lake inflows and over-the-lake evaporation. Over-the-lake rainfall contributes only up to 30% of lake evaporative demand. During the modelling time period, Lake Turkana showed seasonal variations of 1–2 m. The lake level fluctuated in the range up to 4 m between the years 1998–2009. This study demonstrated the usefulness of satellite altimetry data to calibrate and validate the satellite-driven hydrological model for Lake Turkana without using any in-situ data. Furthermore, for Lake Turkana, we identified and outlined opportunities and challenges of using a calibrated satellite-driven water balance model for (i) quantitative assessment of the impact of basin developmental activities on lake levels and for (ii) forecasting lake level changes and their impact on fisheries. From this study, we suggest that globally available satellite altimetry data provide a unique opportunity for calibration and validation of hydrologic models in ungauged basins