Existing evidence on the use of participatory scenarios in ecological restoration: a systematic map

Background and context: The scale of land degradation worldwide has led to nearly one billion hectares committed to restoration globally. However, achieving such restoration targets will necessitate complex trade-offs against limited time, competing knowledge, costs, resources and varying stakeholder and societal preferences. Participatory scenarios allow a way to identify collaborative solutions for restoration planning and implementation best suited for the local cultures and societies they are tied to. They can be used to navigate uncertainties surrounding future trajectories of restored areas by evaluating trade-offs in outcomes. This research aims to systematically map the evidence on the use of participatory scenarios in restoration planning. We use the following research question: What evidence exists on the use of participatory scenarios in ecological restoration? This is answered by examining the characteristics of the evidence base, types of study design, types of outcomes, trade-offs in outcomes, and the role of participants. Methods: A comprehensive and reproducible search strategy was followed using bibliographic databases, web-based searches, and targeted searching. Search results underwent a two-step screening process according to eligibility criteria. Metadata on key areas of interest were extracted from included texts and were narratively synthesised alongside data visualisations to answer the research questions. Review findings:18,612 records were initially identified, and 106 articles were included in the final map. Most studies were conducted in Europe and North America, focusing on restoring agricultural land or forests. Most texts used mixed methods and explored multiple outcome types, but environmental outcomes were the most assessed. Within environmental outcomes, indicators for ecological function were assessed more frequently than structural or compositional indicators. The most common reason for choosing outcomes and indicators was stakeholder interest. Trade-offs in social, ecological, and economic outcomes were mainly examined across space using mapping techniques, while far fewer studies looked at trade-offs across stakeholders and time. Participants were mostly included in the scenario creation step and were usually chosen purposefully by the research team. Conclusions: It is difficult to understand how useful scenarios are for restoration planning because few texts reported how scenarios fed into the process. Despite this, the range of outcomes used and different method types adopted suggests participatory scenarios allow for integrating different knowledge and approaches, alongside facilitating the use of qualitative or semi-quantitative data when this is more appropriate or quantitative data is not widely available. To better use participatory scenarios as a tool for ecological restoration planning, decision-makers can push for greater levels and definitions of participation from the offset of restoration projects with specified, regular, and structured communication and participation channels. We also recommend more systematic methods of participant selection, such as stakeholder analysis. Further research is needed to understand the effectiveness of participatory scenarios in restoration planning and whether the participation of stakeholders was successful in meeting objectives. To improve the evidence base, future studies should clearly evaluate their effectiveness in the restoration planning process and their success in meeting their participatory objectives

Inception of a global atlas of sea levels since the Last Glacial Maximum

Determining the rates, mechanisms, and geographic variability of relative sea-level (RSL) change following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) provides insight into the sensitivity of ice sheets to climate change, the response of the solid Earth and gravity field to ice-mass redistribution, and constrains statistical and physical models used to project future sea-level rise. To do so in a scientifically robust way requires standardized datasets that enable broad spatial comparisons that minimize bias. As part of a larger goal to develop a unified, spatially-comprehensive post-LGM global RSL database, in this special issue we provide a standardized global synthesis of regional RSL data that resulted from the first ‘Geographic variability of HOLocene relative SEA level (HOLSEA)’ meetings in Mt Hood, Oregon (2016) and St Lucia, South Africa (2017). The HOLSEA meetings brought together sea-level researchers to agree upon a consistent protocol to standardize, interpret, and incorporate realistic uncertainties of RSL data. This special issue provides RSL data from ten geographical regions including new databases from Atlantic Europe and the Russian Arctic and revised/expanded databases from Atlantic Canada, the British Isles, the Netherlands, the western Mediterranean, the Adriatic, Israel, Peninsular Malaysia, Southeast Asia, and the Indian Ocean. In total, the database derived from this special issue includes 5634 (5290 validated) index (n = 3202) and limiting points (n = 2088) that span from ∼20,000 years ago to present. Progress in improving the standardization of sea-level databases has also been accompanied by advancements in statistical and analytical methods used to infer spatial patterns and rates of RSL change from geological data that have a spatially and temporally sparse distribution and geochronological and elevational uncertainties. This special issue marks the inception of a unified, spatially-comprehensive post-LGM global RSL database

Trial protocol OPPTIMUM : does progesterone prophylaxis for the prevention of preterm labour improve outcome?

Background Preterm birth is a global problem, with a prevalence of 8 to 12% depending on location. Several large trials and systematic reviews have shown progestogens to be effective in preventing or delaying preterm birth in selected high risk women with a singleton pregnancy (including those with a short cervix or previous preterm birth). Although an improvement in short term neonatal outcomes has been shown in some trials these have not consistently been confirmed in meta-analyses. Additionally data on longer term outcomes is limited to a single trial where no difference in outcomes was demonstrated at four years of age of the child, despite those in the “progesterone” group having a lower incidence of preterm birth. Methods/Design The OPPTIMUM study is a double blind randomized placebo controlled trial to determine whether progesterone prophylaxis to prevent preterm birth has long term neonatal or infant benefit. Specifically it will study whether, in women with singleton pregnancy and at high risk of preterm labour, prophylactic vaginal natural progesterone, 200 mg daily from 22 – 34 weeks gestation, compared to placebo, improves obstetric outcome by lengthening pregnancy thus reducing the incidence of preterm delivery (before 34 weeks), improves neonatal outcome by reducing a composite of death and major morbidity, and leads to improved childhood cognitive and neurosensory outcomes at two years of age. Recruitment began in 2009 and is scheduled to close in Spring 2013. As of May 2012, over 800 women had been randomized in 60 sites. Discussion OPPTIMUM will provide further evidence on the effectiveness of vaginal progesterone for prevention of preterm birth and improvement of neonatal outcomes in selected groups of women with singleton pregnancy at high risk of preterm birth. Additionally it will determine whether any reduction in the incidence of preterm birth is accompanied by improved childhood outcome

CRAFT (Cerclage after full dilatation caesarean section): protocol of a mixed methods study investigating the role of previous in-labour caesarean section in preterm birth risk

BACKGROUND: Full dilatation caesarean sections are associated with recurrent early spontaneous preterm birth and late miscarriage. The risk following first stage caesarean sections, are less well defined, but appears to be increased in late-first stage of labour. The mechanism for this increased risk of late miscarriage and early spontaneous preterm birth in these women is unknown and there are uncertainties with regards to clinical management. Current predictive models of preterm birth (based on transvaginal ultrasound and quantitative fetal fibronectin) have not been validated in these women and it is unknown whether the threshold to define a short cervix (≤25 mm) is reliable in predicting the risk of preterm birth. In addition the efficacy of standard treatments or whether benefit may be derived from prophylactic interventions such as a cervical cerclage is unknown. METHODS: There are three distinct components to the CRAFT project (CRAFT-OBS, CRAFT-RCT and CRAFT-IMG). CRAFT-OBS: Observational Study; To evaluate subsequent pregnancy risk of preterm birth in women with a prior caesarean section in established labour. This prospective study of cervical length and quantitative fetal fibronectin data will establish a predictive model of preterm birth. CRAFT-RCT: Randomised controlled trial arm; To assess treatment for short cervix in women at high risk of preterm birth following a fully dilated caesarean section. CRAFT-IMG: Imaging sub-study; To evaluate the use of MRI and transvaginal ultrasound imaging of micro and macrostructural cervical features which may predispose to preterm birth in women with a previous fully dilated caesarean section, such as scar position and niche. DISCUSSION: The CRAFT project will quantify the risk of preterm birth or late miscarriage in women with previous in-labour caesarean section, define the best management and shed light on pathological mechanisms so as to improve the care we offer to women and their babies. TRIAL REGISTRATION: CRAFT was prospectively registered on 25th November 2019 with the ISRCTN registry ( https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN15068651 )

Reporting errors, incidence and risk factors for postpartum haemorrhage and progression to severe PPH:a prospective observational study

OBJECTIVE: To quantify reporting errors, measure incidence of postpartum haemorrhage (PPH) and define risk factors for PPH (≥500 ml) and progression to severe PPH (≥1500 ml). DESIGN: Prospective observational study. SETTING: Two UK maternity services. POPULATION: Women giving birth between 1 August 2008 and 31 July 2009 (n = 10 213). METHODS: Weighted sampling with sequential adjustment by multivariate analysis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence and risk factors for PPH and progression to severe PPH. RESULTS: Errors in transcribing blood volume were frequent (14%) with evidence of threshold preference and avoidance. The incidences of PPH ≥500, ≥1500 and ≥2500 ml were 33.7% (95% CI 31.2–36.2), 3.9% (95% CI 3.3–4.6) and 0.8% (95% CI 0.6–1.0). New independent risk factors predicting PPH ≥ 500 ml included Black African ethnicity (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.77, 95% CI 1.31–2.39) and assisted conception (aOR 2.93, 95% CI 1.30–6.59). Modelling demonstrated how prepregnancy- and pregnancy-acquired factors may be mediated through intrapartum events, including caesarean section, elective (aOR 24.4, 95% CI 5.53–108.00) or emergency (aOR 40.5, 95% CI 16.30–101.00), and retained placenta (aOR 21.3, 95% CI 8.31–54.7). New risk factors were identified for progression to severe PPH, including index of multiple deprivation (education, skills and training) (aOR 1.75, 95% CI 1.11–2.74), multiparity without caesarean section (aOR 1.65, 95% CI 1.20–2.28) and administration of steroids for fetal reasons (aOR 2.00, 95% CI 1.24–3.22). CONCLUSIONS: Sequential, interacting, traditional and new risk factors explain the highest rates of PPH and severe PPH reported to date

Behavioral Modernity and the Cultural Transmission of Structured Information: The Semantic Axelrod Model

Cultural transmission models are coming to the fore in explaining increases in the Paleolithic toolkit richness and diversity. During the later Paleolithic, technologies increase not only in terms of diversity but also in their complexity and interdependence. As Mesoudi and O'Brien (2008) have shown, selection broadly favors social learning of information that is hierarchical and structured, and multiple studies have demonstrated that teaching within a social learning environment can increase fitness. We believe that teaching also provides the scaffolding for transmission of more complex cultural traits. Here, we introduce an extension of the Axelrod (1997} model of cultural differentiation in which traits have prerequisite relationships, and where social learning is dependent upon the ordering of those prerequisites. We examine the resulting structure of cultural repertoires as learning environments range from largely unstructured imitation, to structured teaching of necessary prerequisites, and we find that in combination with individual learning and innovation, high probabilities of teaching prerequisites leads to richer cultural repertoires. Our results point to ways in which we can build more comprehensive explanations of the archaeological record of the Paleolithic as well as other cases of technological change.Comment: 24 pages, 7 figures. Submitted to "Learning Strategies and Cultural Evolution during the Paleolithic", edited by Kenichi Aoki and Alex Mesoudi, and presented at the 79th Annual Meeting of the Society for American Archaeology, Austin TX. Revised 5/14/1

Diagnostic accuracy of placental growth factor and ultrasound parameters to predict the small-for-gestational-age infant in women presenting with reduced symphysis-fundus height.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the diagnostic accuracy of placental growth factor (PlGF) and ultrasound parameters to predict delivery of a small-for-gestational-age (SGA) infant in women presenting with reduced symphysis-fundus height (SFH). METHODS: This was a multicenter prospective observational study recruiting 601 women with a singleton pregnancy and reduced SFH between 24 and 37 weeks' gestation across 11 sites in the UK and Canada. Plasma PlGF concentration  95(th) centile and oligohydramnios (amniotic fluid index < 5 cm) were compared as predictors for a SGA infant < 3(rd) customized birth-weight centile and adverse perinatal outcome. Test performance statistics were calculated for all parameters in isolation and in combination. RESULTS: Of the 601 women recruited, 592 were analyzed. For predicting delivery of SGA < 3(rd) centile (n = 78), EFW < 10(th) centile had 58% sensitivity (95% CI, 46-69%) and 93% negative predictive value (NPV) (95% CI, 90-95%), PlGF had 37% sensitivity (95% CI, 27-49%) and 90% NPV (95% CI, 87-93%); in combination, PlGF and EFW < 10(th) centile had 69% sensitivity (95% CI, 55-81%) and 93% NPV (95% CI, 89-96%). The equivalent receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curve areas were 0.79 (95% CI, 0.74-0.84) for EFW < 10(th) centile, 0.70 (95% CI, 0.63-0.77) for low PlGF and 0.82 (95% CI, 0.77-0.86) in combination. CONCLUSIONS: For women presenting with reduced SFH, ultrasound parameters had modest test performance for predicting delivery of SGA < 3(rd) centile. PlGF performed no better than EFW < 10(th) centile in determining delivery of a SGA infant

Is there a relationship between weather conditions and aortic dissection?

BACKGROUND: Bleeding and rupture of blood vessels has been correlated with weather conditions in the past. This is the first study in the world literature with the aim of investigating the relationship between atmospheric pressure and temperature with the presentation of aortic dissection. METHODS: The dates of all emergency aortic dissection repairs from 1996–2002 in a regional cardiothoracic unit at Blackpool Victoria Hospital were obtained. Hourly temperature and pressure data from a regional weather station for this time period was supplied by the Meteorological Office. The mean and standard deviation of hourly temperature and pressure data for that month were compared to the mean and standard deviation of the data 24 and 48 hours prior to the aortic dissection. RESULTS: 26 patients were found to have been operated on during the time period studied. There was no statistically significant correlation between temperature or atmospheric pressure readings, and the incidence of aortic dissection, using a Bonferonni-corrected significance p-value of 0.005 CONCLUSION: This study is the first to examine the relationship between atmospheric pressure, temperature and dissecting thoracic aorta. No statistically significant relationship was demonstrable

The impacts of environmental warming on Odonata: a review

Climate change brings with it unprecedented rates of increase in environmental temperature, which will have major consequences for the earth's flora and fauna. The Odonata represent a taxon that has many strong links to this abiotic factor due to its tropical evolutionary history and adaptations to temperate climates. Temperature is known to affect odonate physiology including life-history traits such as developmental rate, phenology and seasonal regulation as well as immune function and the production of pigment for thermoregulation. A range of behaviours are likely to be affected which will, in turn, influence other parts of the aquatic ecosystem, primarily through trophic interactions. Temperature may influence changes in geographical distributions, through a shifting of species' fundamental niches, changes in the distribution of suitable habitat and variation in the dispersal ability of species. Finally, such a rapid change in the environment results in a strong selective pressure towards adaptation to cope and the inevitable loss of some populations and, potentially, species. Where data are lacking for odonates, studies on other invertebrate groups will be considered. Finally, directions for research are suggested, particularly laboratory studies that investigate underlying causes of climate-driven macroecological patterns