Stochastic bias-correction of daily rainfall scenarios for hydrological applications

The accuracy of rainfall predictions provided by climate models is crucial for the assessment of climate change impacts on hydrological processes. In fact, the presence of bias in downscaled precipitation may produce large bias in the assessment of soil moisture dynamics, river flows and groundwater recharge. <br><br> In this study, a comparison between statistical properties of rainfall observations and model control simulations from a Regional Climate Model (RCM) was performed through a robust and meaningful representation of the precipitation process. The output of the adopted RCM was analysed and re-scaled exploiting the structure of a stochastic model of the point rainfall process. In particular, the stochastic model is able to adequately reproduce the rainfall intermittency at the synoptic scale, which is one of the crucial aspects for the Mediterranean environments. Possible alteration in the local rainfall regime was investigated by means of the historical daily time-series from a dense rain-gauge network, which were also used for the analysis of the RCM bias in terms of dry and wet periods and storm intensity. The result is a stochastic scheme for bias-correction at the RCM-cell scale, which produces a realistic representation of the daily rainfall intermittency and precipitation depths, though a residual bias in the storm intensity of longer storm events persists

Benefits from using combined dynamical-statistical downscaling approaches - Lessons from a case study in the Mediterranean region

Abstract. Various downscaling techniques have been developed to bridge the scale gap between global climate models (GCMs) and finer scales required to assess hydrological impacts of climate change. Such techniques may be grouped into two downscaling approaches: the deterministic dynamical downscaling (DD) and the statistical downscaling (SD). Although SD has been traditionally seen as an alternative to DD, recent works on statistical downscaling have aimed to combine the benefits of these two approaches. The overall objective of this study is to assess whether a DD processing performed before the SD permits to obtain more suitable climate scenarios for basin scale hydrological applications starting from GCM simulations. The case study presented here focuses on the Apulia region (South East of Italy, surface area about 20 000 km2), characterised by a typical Mediterranean climate; the monthly cumulated precipitation and monthly mean of daily minimum and maximum temperature distribution were examined for the period 1953–2000. The fifth-generation ECHAM model from the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology was adopted as GCM. The DD was carried out with the Protheus system (ENEA), while the SD was performed through a monthly quantile-quantile correction. The SD resulted efficient in reducing the mean bias in the spatial distribution at both annual and seasonal scales, but it was not able to correct the miss-modelled non-stationary components of the GCM dynamics. The DD provided a partial correction by enhancing the spatial heterogeneity of trends and the long-term time evolution predicted by the GCM. The best results were obtained through the combination of both DD and SD approaches

Deep-Ocean dissolved organic matter reactivity along the Mediterranea Sea: does size matter?

Original research paperDespite of the major role ascribed to marine dissolved organic matter (DOM) in the global carbon cycle, the reactivity of this pool in the dark ocean is still poorly understood. Present hypotheses, posed within the size-reactivity continuum (SRC) and the microbial carbon pump (MCP) conceptual frameworks, need further empirical support. Here, we provide field evidence of the soundness of the SRC model. We sampled the high salinity core-of-flow of the Levantine Intermediate Water along its westward route through the entire Mediterranean Sea. At selected sites, DOM was size-fractionated in apparent high (aHMW) and low (aLMW) molecular weight fractions using an efficient ultrafiltration cell. A percentage decline of the aHMW DOM from 68–76% to 40–55% was observed from the Levantine Sea to the Strait of Gibraltar in parallel with increasing apparent oxygen utilization (AOU). DOM mineralization accounted for 30±3% of the AOU, being the aHMW fraction solely responsible for this consumption, verifying the SRC model in the field. We also demonstrate that, in parallel to this aHMW DOM consumption, fluorescent humic-like substances accumulate in both fractions and protein-like substances decline in the aLMW fraction, thus indicating that not only size matters and providing field support to the MCP modelHOTMIX (grant number CTM2011–30010-C02 01-MAR and 02-MAR) and the project FERMIO (MINECO, CTM2014-57334-JIN), both co-financed with FEDER funds; (reference BES-2012- 056175) from the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitivenes; the project MODMED from CSIC (PIE, 201730E020) and CSIC Program “Junta para la Ampliación de Estudios” co-financed by the ESF (reference JAE DOC 040)Versión del editor2,92

Interference at INRIM in L2 and related analysis

INRIM TN 0