KIC 10449976: discovery of an extreme-helium subdwarf in the Kepler field

Optical spectroscopy of the blue star KIC 10449976 shows that it is an extremely helium-rich subdwarf with effective temperature T=40000+/-300 K and surface gravity log g=5.3+/-0.1. Radial-velocity measurements over a five-day timescale show an upper variability limit of ~50+/-20 km/s. Kepler photometry of KIC 10449976 in both long and short cadence modes shows evidence for a periodic modulation on a timescale of ~3.9 days. We have examined the possibility that this modulation is not astrophysical but conclude it is most likely real. We discuss whether the modulation could be caused by a low-mass companion, by stellar pulsations, or by spots. The identification of any one of these as cause has important consequences for understanding the origin of helium-rich subdwarfs.Comment: Accepted by MNRA

The potential for measles transmission in England

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Since the schools vaccination campaign in 1994, measles has been eliminated from England. Maintaining elimination requires low susceptibility levels to keep the effective reproduction number R below 1. Since 1995, however, MMR coverage in two year old children has decreased by more than 10%.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Quarterly MMR coverage data for children aged two and five years resident in each district health authority in England were used to estimate susceptibility to measles by age. The effective reproduction numbers for each district and strategic health authority were calculated and possible outbreak sizes estimated.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In 2004/05, about 1.9 million school children and 300,000 pre-school children were recorded as incompletely vaccinated against measles in England, including more than 800,000 children completely unvaccinated. Based on this, approximately 1.3 million children aged 2–17 years were susceptible to measles. In 14 of the 99 districts, the level of susceptibility is sufficiently high for R to exceed 1, indicating the potential for sustained measles transmission. Eleven of these districts are in London. Our model suggests that the potential exists for an outbreak of up to 100,000 cases. These results are sensitive to the accuracy of reported vaccination coverage data.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our analysis identified several districts with the potential for sustaining measles transmission. Many London areas remain at high risk even allowing for considerable under-reporting of coverage. Primary care trusts should ensure that accurate systems are in place to identify unimmunised children and to offer catch-up immunisation for those not up to date for MMR.</p

The Three Dimensional Structure of EUV Accretion Regions in AM Herculis Stars: Modeling of EUV Photometric and Spectroscopic Observations

We have developed a model of the high-energy accretion region for magnetic cataclysmic variables and applied it to {\it Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer} observations of 10 AM Herculis type systems. The major features of the EUV light curves are well described by the model. The light curves exhibit a large variety of features such as eclipses of the accretion region by the secondary star and the accretion stream, and dips caused by material very close to the accretion region. While all the observed features of the light curves are highly dependent on viewing geometry, none of the light curves are consistent with a flat, circular accretion spot whose lightcurve would vary solely from projection effects. The accretion region immediately above the WD surface is a source of EUV radiation caused by either a vertical extent to the accretion spot, or Compton scattering off electrons in the accretion column, or, very likely, both. Our model yields spot sizes averaging 0.06 R$_{WD}$, or $f \sim 1 \times 10^{-3}$ the WD surface area, and average spot heights of 0.023 R$_{WD}$. Spectra extracted during broad dip phases are softer than spectra during the out-of-dip phases. This spectral ratio measurement leads to the conclusion that Compton scattering, some absorption by a warm absorber, geometric effects, an asymmetric temperature structure in the accretion region and an asymmetric density structure of the accretion columnare all important components needed to fully explain the data. Spectra extracted at phases where the accretion spot is hidden behind the limb of the WD, but with the accretion column immediately above the spot still visible, show no evidence of emission features characteristic of a hot plasma.Comment: 30 Pages, 11 Figure

FUSE and HST/STIS far-ultraviolet observations of AM Herculis in an extended low state

We have obtained FUSE and HST/STIS time-resolved spectroscopy of the polar AM Herculis during a deep low state. The spectra are entirely dominated by the emission of the white dwarf. Both the far-ultraviolet (FUV) flux as well as the spectral shape vary substantially over the orbital period, with maximum flux occurring at the same phase as during the high state. The variations are due to the presence of a hot spot on the white dwarf, which we model quantitatively. The white dwarf parameters can be determined from a spectral fit to the faint phase data, when the hot spot is self-eclipsed. Adopting the distance of 79+8-6pc determined by Thorstensen, we find an effective temperature of 19800+-700K and a mass of Mwd=0.78+0.12-0.17Msun. The hot spot has a lower temperature than during the high state, ~34000-40000K, but covers a similar area, ~10% of the white dwarf surface. Low state FUSE and STIS spectra taken during four different epochs in 2002/3 show no variation of the FUV flux level or spectral shape, implying that the white dwarf temperature and the hot spot temperature, size, and location do not depend on the amount of time the system has spent in the low state. Possible explanations are ongoing accretion at a low level, or deep heating, both alternatives have some weaknesses that we discuss. No photospheric metal absorption lines are detected in the FUSE and STIS spectra, suggesting that the average metal abundances in the white dwarf atmosphere are lower than 1e-3 times their solar values.Comment: ApJ in press, 12 pages, 11 figure

SARS-CoV-2 infection and transmission in educational settings : cross-sectional analysis of clusters and outbreaks in England

BACKGROUND: Understanding severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and transmission in educational settings is crucial for ensuring the safety of staff and children during the COVID-19 pandemic. We estimated the rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection and outbreaks among staff and students in educational settings during the summer half-term (June-July, 2020) in England. METHODS: In this prospective, cross-sectional analysis, Public Health England initiated enhanced national surveillance in educational settings in England that had reopened after the first national lockdown, from June 1 to July 17, 2020. Educational settings were categorised as early years settings (<5-year-olds), primary schools (5-11-year-olds; only years 1 and 6 allowed to return), secondary schools (11-18-year-olds; only years 10 and 12), or mixed-age settings (spanning a combination of the above). Further education colleges were excluded. Data were recorded in HPZone, an online national database for events that require public health management. RT-PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 event rates and case rates were calculated for staff and students, and direction of transmission was inferred on the basis of symptom onset and testing dates. Events were classified as single cases, coprimary cases (at least two confirmed cases within 48 h, typically within the same household), and outbreaks (at least two epidemiologically linked cases, with sequential cases diagnosed within 14 days in the same educational setting). All events were followed up for 28 days after educational settings closed for the summer holidays. Negative binomial regression was used to correlate educational setting events with regional population, population density, and community incidence. FINDINGS: A median of 38 000 early years settings (IQR 35 500-41 500), 15 600 primary schools (13 450-17 300), and 4000 secondary schools (3700-4200) were open each day, with a median daily attendance of 928 000 students (630 000-1 230 000) overall. There were 113 single cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection, nine coprimary cases, and 55 outbreaks. The risk of an outbreak increased by 72% (95% CI 28-130) for every five cases per 100 000 population increase in community incidence (p<0·0001). Staff had higher incidence than students (27 cases [95% CI 23-32] per 100 000 per day among staff compared with 18 cases [14-24] in early years students, 6·0 cases [4·3-8·2] in primary schools students, and 6·8 cases [2·7-14] in secondary school students]), and most cases linked to outbreaks were in staff members (154 [73%] staff vs 56 [27%] children of 210 total cases). Probable direction of transmission was staff to staff in 26 outbreaks, staff to student in eight outbreaks, student to staff in 16 outbreaks, and student to student in five outbreaks. The median number of secondary cases in outbreaks was one (IQR 1-2) for student index cases and one (1-5) for staff index cases. INTERPRETATION: SARS-CoV-2 infections and outbreaks were uncommon in educational settings during the summer half-term in England. The strong association with regional COVID-19 incidence emphasises the importance of controlling community transmission to protect educational settings. Interventions should focus on reducing transmission in and among staff. FUNDING: Public Health England

An Optimal Linear Time Algorithm for Quasi-Monotonic Segmentation

Monotonicity is a simple yet significant qualitative characteristic. We consider the problem of segmenting a sequence in up to K segments. We want segments to be as monotonic as possible and to alternate signs. We propose a quality metric for this problem using the l_inf norm, and we present an optimal linear time algorithm based on novel formalism. Moreover, given a precomputation in time O(n log n) consisting of a labeling of all extrema, we compute any optimal segmentation in constant time. We compare experimentally its performance to two piecewise linear segmentation heuristics (top-down and bottom-up). We show that our algorithm is faster and more accurate. Applications include pattern recognition and qualitative modeling.Comment: This is the extended version of our ICDM'05 paper (arXiv:cs/0702142

Knowledge, protective behaviours, and perception of Lyme disease in an area of emerging risk: results from a cross-sectional survey of adults in Ottawa, Ontario

BackgroundThe number of Lyme disease risk areas in Canada is growing. In regions with emerging tick populations, it is important to emphasize peridomestic risk and the importance of protective behaviours in local public health communication. This study aims to identify characteristics associated with high levels of Lyme disease knowledge and adoption of protective behaviours among residents in the Ottawa, Ontario region.MethodsA geographically stratified web survey was conducted in November 2020 (n = 2018) to determine knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding Lyme disease among adult residents. Responses were used to calculate: (i) composite scores for knowledge and adoption of protective practices; and (ii) an exposure risk index based on reported activity in woodlands during the spring-to-fall tick exposure risk period.Results60% of respondents had a high knowledge of Lyme disease, yet only 14% indicated they often use five or more measures to protect themselves. Factors strongly associated with a high level of Lyme disease knowledge included being 55 or older (Odds Ratio (OR) = 2.04), living on a property with a yard (OR = 3.22), having a high exposure index (OR = 1.59), and knowing someone previously infected with Lyme disease (OR = 2.05). Strong associations with the adoption of a high number of protective behaviours were observed with membership in a non-Indigenous racialized group (OR = 1.70), living on a property with a yard (OR = 2.37), previous infection with Lyme disease (OR = 2.13), prior tick bite exposure (OR = 1.62), and primarily occupational activity in wooded areas (OR = 2.31).ConclusionsThis study highlights the dynamics between Lyme disease knowledge, patterns of exposure risk awareness, and vigilance of personal protection in a Canadian region with emerging Lyme disease risk. Notably, this study identified gaps between perceived local risk and protective behaviours, presenting opportunities for targeted enhanced communication efforts in areas of Lyme disease emergence

Lessons for major system change: centralization of stroke services in two metropolitan areas of England

OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to identify the factors influencing the selection of a model of acute stroke service centralization to create fewer high-volume specialist units in two metropolitan areas of England (London and Greater Manchester). It considers the reasons why services were more fully centralized in London than in Greater Manchester. METHODS: In both areas, we analysed 316 documents and conducted 45 interviews with people leading transformation, service user organizations, providers and commissioners. Inductive and deductive analyses were used to compare the processes underpinning change in each area, with reference to propositions for achieving major system change taken from a realist review of the existing literature (the Best framework), which we critique and develop further. RESULTS: In London, system leadership was used to overcome resistance to centralization and align stakeholders to implement a centralized service model. In Greater Manchester, programme leaders relied on achieving change by consensus and, lacking decision-making authority over providers, accommodated rather than challenged resistance by implementing a less radical transformation of services. CONCLUSIONS: A combination of system (top-down) and distributed (bottom-up) leadership is important in enabling change. System leadership provides the political authority required to coordinate stakeholders and to capitalize on clinical leadership by aligning it with transformation goals. Policy makers should examine how the structures of system authority, with performance management and financial levers, can be employed to coordinate transformation by aligning the disparate interests of providers and commissioners