Evaluation of the cold weather plan for England:modelling of cost-effectiveness

OBJECTIVE: To determine the conditions under which the Cold Weather Plan (CWP) for England is likely to prove cost-effective in order to inform the development of the CWP in the short term before direct data on costs and benefits can be collected. STUDY DESIGN: Mathematical modelling study undertaken in the absence of direct epidemiological evidence on the effect of the CWP in reducing cold-related mortality and morbidity, and limited data or on its costs. METHODS: The model comprised a simulated temperature time series based on historical data; epidemiologically-derived relationships between temperature, and mortality and morbidity; and information on baseline unit costs of contacts with health care and community care services. Cost-effectiveness was assessed assuming varying levels of protection against cold-related burdens, coverage of the vulnerable population and willingness-to-pay criteria. RESULTS: Simulations showed that the CWP is likely to be cost effective under some scenarios at the high end of the willingness to pay threshold used by National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in England, but these results are sensitive to assumptions about the extent of implementation of the CWP at local level, and its assumed effectiveness when implemented. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio varied from £29,754 to £75,875 per Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) gained. Conventional cost-effectiveness (15%) in avoiding deaths and hospital admissions. CONCLUSIONS: Although the modelling relied on a large number of assumptions, this type of modelling is useful for understanding whether, and in what circumstances, untested plans are likely to be cost-effective before they are implemented and in the early period of implementation before direct data on cost-effectiveness have accrued. Steps can then be taken to optimize the relevant parameters as far as practicable during the early implementation period

Public health vulnerability to wintertime weather:time-series regression and episode analyses of national mortality and morbidity databases to inform the Cold Weather Plan for England

OBJECTIVES: To inform development of Public Health England's Cold Weather Plan (CWP) by characterizing pre-existing relationships between wintertime weather and mortality and morbidity outcomes, and identification of groups most at risk. STUDY DESIGN: Time-series regression analysis and episode analysis of daily mortality, emergency hospital admissions, and accident and emergency visits for each region of England. METHODS: Seasonally-adjusted Poisson regression models estimating the percent change in daily health events per 1 °C fall in temperature or during individual episodes of extreme weather. RESULTS: Adverse cold effects were observed in all regions, with the North East, North West and London having the greatest risk of cold-related mortality. Nationally, there was a 3.44% (95% CI: 3.01, 3.87) increase in all-cause deaths and 0.78% (95% CI: 0.53, 1.04) increase in all-cause emergency admissions for every 1 °C drop in temperature below identified thresholds. The very elderly and people with COPD were most at risk from low temperatures. A&E visits for fractures were elevated during heavy snowfall periods, with adults (16-64 years) being the most sensitive age-group. Since even moderately cold days are associated with adverse health effects, by far the greatest health burdens of cold weather fell outside of the alert periods currently used in the CWP. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that levels 0 ('year round planning') and 1 ('winter preparedness and action') are crucial components of the CWP in comparison to the alerts. Those most vulnerable during winter may vary depending on the type of weather conditions being experienced. Recommendations are made for the CWP

Gastrointestinal helminthiasis presenting with acute diarrhoea and constipation: report of two cases with a second pathology.

Gastrointestinal helminthiasis in developing countries contributes to malnutrition and anemia. Diagnosis and treatment of helminthiasis, especially with low worm load is an unmet public health need in such settings. The infection may sometimes become manifest when a second pathology leads to purgation of the gastrointestinal tract. Two cases of helminthiasis are presented in which the infections only became amenable to diagnosis due to acute diarrhoea caused by giardiasis and lactulose administration. In the first case, acute giardiasis revealed Ascaris lumbricoides infestation, and in the second case primary helminthiasis (strongyloidiasis) was revealed by lactulose, and also led to Vibrio cholera bacteremia. These cases highlight the need to diagnose helminth infestations especially with low worm burdens by means of public health surveillance programmes. These cases highlight the need to diagnose helminth infestations especially with low worm burdens by means of public health surveillance programmes

Development and properties of polymeric nanocomposite coatings

Polymeric-based nanocomposite coatings were synthesized by reinforcing epoxy matrix with titanium nanotubes (TNTs) loaded with dodecylamine (DOC). The performance of the developed nanocomposite coatings was investigated in corrosive environments to evaluate their anti-corrosion properties. The SEM/TEM, TGA, and FTIR analysis confirm the loading of the DOC into the TNTs. The UV-Vis spectroscopic analysis confirms the self-release of the inhibitor (DOC) in response to the pH change. The electrochemical impedance spectroscopic (EIS) analysis indicates that the synthesized nanocomposite coatings demonstrate superior anticorrosion properties at pH 2 as compared to pH 5. The improved anticorrosion properties of nanocomposite coatings at pH 2 can be attributed to the more effective release of the DOC from the nanocontainers. The superior performance makes polymeric nanocomposite coatings suitable for many industrial applications.Qatar University, University of Auckland, Qatar FoundationScopu

Arbitration between model-free and model-based control is not affected by transient changes in tonic serotonin levels

Background: Serotonin has been suggested to modulate decision-making by influencing the arbitration between model-based and model-free control. Disruptions in these control mechanisms are involved in mental disorders such as drug dependence or obsessive-compulsive disorder. While previous reports indicate that lower brain serotonin levels reduce model-based control, it remains unknown whether increases in serotonergic availability might thus increase model-based control. Moreover, the mediating neural mechanisms have not been studied yet. Aim: The first aim of this study was to investigate whether increased/decreased tonic serotonin levels affect the arbitration between model-free and model-based control. Second, we aimed to identify the underlying neural processes. Methods: We employed a sequential two-stage Markov decision-task and measured brain responses during functional magnetic resonance imaging in 98 participants in a randomized, double-blind cross-over within-subject design. To investigate the influence of serotonin on the balance between model-free and model-based control, we used a tryptophan intervention with three intervention levels (loading, balanced, depletion). We hypothesized that model-based behaviour would increase with higher serotonin levels. Results: We found evidence that neither model-free nor model-based control were affected by changes in tonic serotonin levels. Furthermore, our tryptophan intervention did not elicit relevant changes in Blood-Oxygenation-Level Dependent activity

Pollen exposure and hospitalization due to asthma exacerbations: daily time series in a European city.

Exposure to pollen can contribute to increased hospital admissions for asthma exacerbation. This study applied an ecological time series analysis to examine associations between atmospheric concentrations of different pollen types and the risk of hospitalization for asthma in London from 2005 to 2011. The analysis examined short-term associations between daily pollen counts and hospital admissions in the presence of seasonal and long-term patterns, and allowed for time lags between exposure and admission. Models were adjusted for temperature, precipitation, humidity, day of week, and air pollutants. Analyses revealed an association between daily counts (continuous) of grass pollen and adult hospital admissions for asthma in London, with a 4-5-day lag. When grass pollen concentrations were categorized into Met Office pollen 'alert' levels, 'very high' days (vs. 'low') were associated with increased admissions 2-5 days later, peaking at an incidence rate ratio of 1.46 (95%, CI 1.20-1.78) at 3 days. Increased admissions were also associated with 'high' versus 'low' pollen days at a 3-day lag. Results from tree pollen models were inconclusive and likely to have been affected by the shorter pollen seasons and consequent limited number of observation days with higher tree pollen concentrations. Future reductions in asthma hospitalizations may be achieved by better understanding of environmental risks, informing improved alert systems and supporting patients to take preventive measures

Ceftriaxone-resistant Salmonella Typhi Outbreak in Hyderabad City of Sindh, Pakistan: High Time for the Introduction of Typhoid Conjugate Vaccine

Background. The Aga Khan University clinical microbiology laboratory identified an outbreak of ceftriaxone-resistant Salmonella Typhi in Hyderabad, Pakistan, through antimicrobial resistance surveillance. An outbreak investigation was carried out to identify the risk factors and institute control measures. Here we report the preliminary findings of this outbreak investigation, using data collected from 30 November 2016 to 28 March 2017. Methods. The design for the investigation was a case-control study that included identification of culture-proven ceftriaxoneresistant S. Typhi cases, suspected cases from the households or neighborhood of the confirmed cases, and enrollment of controls matched by age to identify the risk factors. Data were collected through face-to-face interviews using a structured questionnaire. Blood cultures were obtained from all suspected cases. Drinking water samples from each household of cases and controls were obtained for microbiological testing. Geographic Information System coordinates were obtained for all cases and controls. Results. Only 2 subdistricts of Hyderabad (Latifabad and Qasimabad) were affected. A total of 101 confirmed cases of ceftriaxone- resistant S. Typhi had been reported in 4 months with the first case reported on 30 November 2016. Median age was 48 (interquartile range, 29-84) months. The majority (60% [61/101]) of the cases were 6-60 months old. More than half (56% [57/101]) of the cases were male. About 60% of the cases were admitted to hospital and treated as inpatient. More than half (57/101) of the patients developed complications related to typhoid. Conclusions. Community awareness was raised regarding chlorination of drinking water and sanitation measures in Hyderabad. These efforts were coordinated with the municipal water and sewage authority established to improve chlorination at processing plants and operationalize fecal sludge treatment plants. Outbreak investigation and control efforts have continued. Immunization of children with typhoid conjugate vaccine within Hyderabad city is planned

Determinants of campylobacter infection and association with growth and enteric inflammation in children under 2 years of age in low-resource settings

Campylobacter species infections have been associated with malnutrition and intestinal inflammation among children in low-resource settings. However, it remains unclear whether that association is specific to Campylobacter jejuni/coli. The aim of this study was to assess the association between both all Campylobacter species infections and Campylobacter jejuni/coli infections on growth and enteric inflammation in children aged 1-24 months. We analyzed data from 1715 children followed from birth until 24 months of age in the MAL-ED birth cohort study, including detection of Campylobacter species by enzyme immunoassay and Campylobacter jejuni/coli by quantitative PCR in stool samples. Myeloperoxidase (MPO) concentration in stool, used as a quantitative index of enteric inflammation, was measured. The incidence rate per 100 child-months of infections with Campylobacter jejuni/coli and Campylobacter species during 1-24 month follow up were 17.7 and 29.6 respectively. Female sex of child, shorter duration of exclusive breastfeeding, lower maternal age, mother having less than 3 living children, maternal educational level of \u3c6 \u3eyears, lack of routine treatment of drinking water, and unimproved sanitation were associated with Campylobacter jejuni/coli infection. The cumulative burden of both Campylobacter jejuni/coli infections and Campylobacter species were associated with poor growth and increased intestinal inflammation