A mathematically assisted reconstruction of the initial focus of the yellow fever outbreak in Buenos Aires (1871)

We discuss the historic mortality record corresponding to the initial focus of the yellow fever epidemic outbreak registered in Buenos Aires during the year 1871 as compared to simulations of a stochastic population dynamics model. This model incorporates the biology of the urban vector of yellow fever, the mosquito Aedes aegypti, the stages of the disease in the human being as well as the spatial extension of the epidemic outbreak. After introducing the historical context and the restrictions it puts on initial conditions and ecological parameters, we discuss the general features of the simulation and the dependence on initial conditions and available sites for breeding the vector. We discuss the sensitivity, to the free parameters, of statistical estimators such as: final death toll, day of the year when the outbreak reached half the total mortality and the normalized daily mortality, showing some striking regularities. The model is precise and accurate enough to discuss the truthfulness of the presently accepted historic discussions of the epidemic causes, showing that there are more likely scenarios for the historic facts.Comment: 25 pages, 12 figure

Probability of Trypanosoma cruzi transmission by Triatoma infestans (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) to the opossum Didelphis albiventris (Marsupialia: Didelphidae)

The probability of Trypanosoma cruzi transmission to opossums by independent events of predation and fecal contamination during feeding ("biting") with positive Triatoma infestans was estimated. Negative female opossums were challenged for 23 hr with 10 infected third and fourth instars of T. infestans, and tests for positivity for T. cruzi by xenodiagnosis were performed at 30, 60, and 90 days. From these data, seven probability parameters were estimated by maximum likelihood, and likelihood ratio statistics confidence intervals were calculated. Simultaneous estimation of p1 (probability that a "bite" will infect an opossum), p3 (probability that a bug that has been eaten by an opossum will infect it), and p6 (probability that the opossum will become infected if faced with an infected triatomine), resulted in p̂1 = 0.06, p̂3 = 0.075, and p̂6 = 0.059. On average, each opossum should be exposed to an average of 700 encounters with bugs during its life, resulting in about eight potentially infective contacts, to produce the 35% opossum prevalence found in the field.Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Muse

Probability of Trypanosoma cruzi transmission by Triatoma infestans (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) to the opossum Didelphis albiventris (Marsupialia: Didelphidae)

The probability of Trypanosoma cruzi transmission to opossums by independent events of predation and fecal contamination during feeding ("biting") with positive Triatoma infestans was estimated. Negative female opossums were challenged for 23 hr with 10 infected third and fourth instars of T. infestans, and tests for positivity for T. cruzi by xenodiagnosis were performed at 30, 60, and 90 days. From these data, seven probability parameters were estimated by maximum likelihood, and likelihood ratio statistics confidence intervals were calculated. Simultaneous estimation of p1 (probability that a "bite" will infect an opossum), p3 (probability that a bug that has been eaten by an opossum will infect it), and p6 (probability that the opossum will become infected if faced with an infected triatomine), resulted in p̂1 = 0.06, p̂3 = 0.075, and p̂6 = 0.059. On average, each opossum should be exposed to an average of 700 encounters with bugs during its life, resulting in about eight potentially infective contacts, to produce the 35% opossum prevalence found in the field.Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Muse

Probability of Trypanosoma cruzi transmission by Triatoma infestans (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) to the opossum Didelphis albiventris (Marsupialia: Didelphidae)

The probability of Trypanosoma cruzi transmission to opossums by independent events of predation and fecal contamination during feeding ("biting") with positive Triatoma infestans was estimated. Negative female opossums were challenged for 23 hr with 10 infected third and fourth instars of T. infestans, and tests for positivity for T. cruzi by xenodiagnosis were performed at 30, 60, and 90 days. From these data, seven probability parameters were estimated by maximum likelihood, and likelihood ratio statistics confidence intervals were calculated. Simultaneous estimation of p1 (probability that a "bite" will infect an opossum), p3 (probability that a bug that has been eaten by an opossum will infect it), and p6 (probability that the opossum will become infected if faced with an infected triatomine), resulted in p̂1 = 0.06, p̂3 = 0.075, and p̂6 = 0.059. On average, each opossum should be exposed to an average of 700 encounters with bugs during its life, resulting in about eight potentially infective contacts, to produce the 35% opossum prevalence found in the field.Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Muse

Spatial Re-Establishment Dynamics of Local Populations of Vectors of Chagas Disease

Chagas disease is transmitted by blood-sucking bugs (vectors) and presents a severe public health threat in the Americas. Worldwide there are approximately 10 million people infected with Chagas disease, a disease for which there is currently no effective cure. Vector suppression is the main strategy to control the spread of this disease. Unfortunately, the vectors have been resurgent in some areas. It is important to understand the dynamics of reinfestation where it occurs. Here we show how different models fitted to patch-level bug infestation data can elucidate different aspects of re-establishment dynamics. Our results demonstrated a 6-month time lag between detection of a new infestation and dispersal events, seasonality in dispersal rates and effects of previous vector infestation on subsequent vector establishment rates. In addition we provide estimates of dispersal distances and the effect of insecticide spraying on rates of vector re-establishment. While some of our results confirm previous findings, the effects of season and previous infestation on bug establishment challenge our current understanding of T. infestans ecology and highlight important gaps in our knowledge of T. infestans dispersal

Characterization of the Dispersal of Non-Domiciliated Triatoma dimidiata through the Selection of Spatially Explicit Models

Chagas disease is one of the most important neglected diseases in Latin America. Although insecticides have been successfully sprayed to control domiciliated vector populations, this strategy has proven to be ineffective in areas where non-domiciliated vectors immigrating from peridomestic or sylvatic ecotopes can (re-)infest houses. The development of strategies for the control of non-domiciliated vectors has thus been identified by the World Health Organization as a major challenge. Such development primarily requires a description of the spatio-temporal dynamics of infestation by these vectors, and a good understanding of their dispersal. We combined for the first time extensive spatio-temporal data sets describing house infestation dynamics by Triatoma dimidiata inside one village, and spatially explicit population dynamics models. The models fitted and predicted remarkably the observed infestation dynamics. They thus provided both key insights into the dispersal of T. dimidiata in this area, and a suitable mathematical background to evaluate the efficacy of various control strategies. Interestingly, the observed and modelled patterns of infestation suggest that interventions could focus on the periphery of the village, where there is the highest risk of transmission. Such spatial optimization may allow for reducing the cost of control, compensating for repeated interventions necessary for non-domiciliated vectors