The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

We reexamine the expectations theory of the term structure using data at the short end of the maturity spectrum. We find that prior to the founding ofthe Federal Reserve System in 1915, the spread between long rates and short rates has substantial predictive power for the path of interest rates; after 1915, however, the spread contains much less predictive power. We then show that the short rate is approximately a random walk after the founding of the Fed but not before. This latter fact, coupled with even slight variation inthe term premium, can explain the observed change in 1915 in the performance of the expectations theory. We suggest that the random walk character of the short rate may be attributable to the Federal Reserve's commitment to stabilizing interest rates.

The Adjustment of Expectations to a Change in Regime: A Study of the Founding of the Federal Reserve

The founding of the Federal Reserve System in 1914 led to a substantial change in the behavior of nominal interest rates. We examine the timing of this change and the speed with which it was effected. We then use data on the term structure of interest rates to determine how expectations responded. Our results indicate that the change in policy regime was rapid and that individuals quickly understood the new environment they were facing.

Historical Perspectives on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism

This paper examines changes over time in the importance of the lending channel in the transmission of monetary shocks to the real economy. We first use a simple extension of the Bernanke-Blinder model to isolate the observable factors that affect the strength of the lending channel. We then show that based on changes in the structure of banks assets, reserve requirements, and the composition of external firm finance, the lending channel should have been stronger before 1929 than during the post-World War II period, especially the first half of this period. Finally, we demonstrate that conventional indicators of the importance of the lending channel, such as the spread between the loan rate and the bond rate and the correlation between loans and output, do not show the predicted decline in the importance of lending over time. From this we conclude that either the traditional indicators are not useful measures of the strength of the lending channel or that the lending channel has not been quantitatively important in any era.

The Worldwide Change in the Behavior of Interest Rates and Prices in 1914

This paper evaluates the role of the destruction of the gold standard and the founding of the Federal Reserve, both of which occurred in 1914, in contributing to observed changes in the behavior of interest rates and prices after 1914. The paper presents a model of policy coordination in which the introduction of the Fed stabilizes interest rates, even if the gold standard remains intact, and it offers empirical evidence that the dismantling of the gold standard did not play a crucial role in precipitating the changes in interest rate behavior.

A promessa de Kalamazoo e sua interpretação: mudanças no clima escolar

The Kalamazoo Promise was announced in the fall of 2005, offering free college tuition at any public state college or university for graduates of the district who have gained acceptance to a postsecondary institution. This program was funded through the generous support of anonymous donors, and a federally-funded evaluation is underway to examine potential changes that result from its implementation. This paper situates perceptions of school climate in this moment of punctuated equilibrium of school reform, and in the context of this universal postsecondary scholarship program. This evaluation research draws from multiple data sources including interviews with educators, and surveys and interviews with students in the school district. Findings indicate that school climate has improved since the announcement of the program. We discuss the implications of research findings and the potential of the Kalamazoo Promise as a catalyst for systemic change in the district.La promesa de Kalamazoo se anunci en el otoo 2005, ofreciendo educacin universitaria gratuita en cualquier universidad pblica del estado a graduados del distrito que fueran aceptados en una universidad. Este programa fue financiado a travs de la apoyo de donantes annimos. Una evaluacin de los fondos federales est en marcha con el objetivo para verificar los posibles cambios que resulten de su implementacin. Este artculo presenta las percepciones del ambiente escolar en este particular punto de equilibrio de la reforma escolar, y en el contexto de este programa universal de becas universitarias. Esta investigacin de evaluacin utiliz mltiples fuentes de datos, incluyendo entrevistas con docentes, as como cuestionarios y entrevistas con estudiantes en distritos escolares. Los resultados indican que el clima escolar ha mejorado desde el inicio de la ejecucin del programa. Discutimos las implicaciones potenciales de los resultados de la Promesa Kalamazoo como un catalizador para el cambio sistmico en el distrito.A Promessa Kalamazoo foi anunciada no outono de 2005, oferecendo educao universitria gratuita em qualquer faculdade pblica do estado para graduados da regio que haviam recebido aceitao de uma instituio universitria. Tal programa foi financiado atravs do apoio de doadores annimos. Uma avaliao de financiamento federal est em andamento com o objetivo de verificar mudanas potenciais que resultam de sua implementao. O artigo apresenta percepes de clima escolar neste momento especfico de equilbrio da reforma escolar, bem como no contexto deste programa universal de bolsa universitria. Esta pesquisa de avaliao parte de mltiplas fontes de dados, incluindo entrevista com professores, alm de questionrios e entrevistas com alunos nas escolas distritais. Resultados indicam que o clima escolar melhorou desde o incio/implementao do programa. Discutimos as implicaes dos resultados e o potencial da Promessa Kalamazoo como catalisador para mudanas sistmicas na regio

Potts-Percolation-Gauss Model of a Solid

We study a statistical mechanics model of a solid. Neighboring atoms are connected by Hookian springs. If the energy is larger than a threshold the "spring" is more likely to fail, while if the energy is lower than the threshold the spring is more likely to be alive. The phase diagram and thermodynamic quantities, such as free energy, numbers of bonds and clusters, and their fluctuations, are determined using renormalization-group and Monte-Carlo techniques.Comment: 10 pages, 12 figure

On Finslerized Absolute Parallelism spaces

The aim of the present paper is to construct and investigate a Finsler structure within the framework of a Generalized Absolute Parallelism space (GAP-space). The Finsler structure is obtained from the vector fields forming the parallelization of the GAP-space. The resulting space, which we refer to as a Finslerized Parallelizable space, combines within its geometric structure the simplicity of GAP-geometry and the richness of Finsler geometry, hence is potentially more suitable for applications and especially for describing physical phenomena. A study of the geometry of the two structures and their interrelation is carried out. Five connections are introduced and their torsion and curvature tensors derived. Some special Finslerized Parallelizable spaces are singled out. One of the main reasons to introduce this new space is that both Absolute Parallelism and Finsler geometries have proved effective in the formulation of physical theories, so it is worthy to try to build a more general geometric structure that would share the benefits of both geometries.Comment: Some references added and others removed, PACS2010, Typos corrected, Amendemrnts and revisions performe