"Side Effects of Progress, How Technological Change Increases the Duration of Unemployment"

Why does a dynamic growing economy have a persistent long-term unemployment problem? Research Associates William J. Baumol and Edward N. Wolff have isolated one cause. Although technological change, the engine of growth and economic progress, may not affect or may even increase the total number of jobs available, the fact that it creates a demand for new skills and makes other skills obsolete can cause an increase in the overall rate of unemployment and the length of time during which an unemployed worker is between jobs. It goes without saying that society will not choose to slow technical innovation, but the task for policy is to find ways to offset the problems caused by this rising level and duration of unemployment.

A new method to detect solar-like oscillations at very low S/N using statistical significance testing

We introduce a new method to detect solar-like oscillations in frequency power spectra of stellar observations, under conditions of very low signal to noise. The Moving-Windowed-Power-Search, or MWPS, searches the power spectrum for signatures of excess power, over and above slowly varying (in frequency) background contributions from stellar granulation and shot or instrumental noise. We adopt a false-alarm approach (Chaplin et al. 2011) to ascertain whether flagged excess power, which is consistent with the excess expected from solar-like oscillations, is hard to explain by chance alone (and hence a candidate detection). We apply the method to solar photometry data, whose quality was systematically degraded to test the performance of the MWPS at low signal-to-noise ratios. We also compare the performance of the MWPS against the frequently applied power-spectrum-of-power-spectrum (PSxPS) detection method. The MWPS is found to outperform the PSxPS method.Comment: 10 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS, Added reference

Loss Compensation in Time-Dependent Elastic Metamaterials

Materials with properties that are modulated in time are known to display wave phenomena showing energy increasing with time, with the rate mediated by the modulation. Until now there has been no accounting for material dissipation, which clearly counteracts energy growth. This paper provides an exact expression for the amplitude of elastic or acoustic waves propagating in lossy materials with properties that are periodically modulated in time. It is found that these materials can support a special propagation regime in which waves travel at constant amplitude, with temporal modulation compensating for the normal energy dissipation. We derive a general condition under which amplification due to time-dependent properties offsets the material dissipation. This identity relates band-gap properties associated with the temporal modulation and the average of the viscosity coefficient, thereby providing a simple recipe for the design of loss-compensated mechanical metamaterials

Hedge Funds With Style

The popular perception is that hedge funds follow a reasonably well defined market-neutral investment style. While this long-short investment strategy may have characterized the first hedge funds, today hedge funds are a reasonably heterogeneous group. They are better defined in terms of their freedom from the constraints imposed by the Investment Company Act of 1940, than they are by the particular style of investment. We study the monthly return history of hedge funds over the period 1989 through to January 2000 and find that there are in fact a number of distinct styles of management. We find that differences in investment style contribute about 20 per cent of the cross sectional variability in hedge fund performance. This result is consistent across the years of our sample and is robust to the way in which we determine investment style. We conclude that appropriate style analysis and style management are crucial to success for investors looking to invest in this market.

Predictions of the emergence of vaccine-resistant hepatitis B in The Gambia using a mathematical model

Vaccine escape variants of hepatitis B virus (HBV) have been identified world-wide. A mathematical model of HBV transmission is used to investigate the potential pattern of emergence of such variants. Attention is focused on The Gambia as a country with high quality epidemiological data, universal infant immunization and in which escape mutants after childhood infections have been observed. We predict that a variant cannot become dominant for at least 20 years from the start of vaccination, even when using a vaccine which affords no cross protection. The dominant factor responsible for this long time scale is the low rate of infectious contacts between infected and susceptible individuals (we estimate the basic reproduction number of hepatitis B in The Gambia to be 1·7). A variant strain that achieves high prevalence will also take many years to control, and it is questionable whether emergence will be identifiable by sero-surveillance until of high prevalence. The sensitivity of the model predictions to epidemiological and demographic factors is explored

Predictions of the emergence of vaccine-resistant hepatitis B in The Gambia using a mathematical model

Vaccine escape variants of hepatitis B virus (HBV) have been identified world-wide. A mathematical model of HBV transmission is used to investigate the potential pattern of emergence of such variants. Attention is focused on The Gambia as a country with high quality epidemiological data, universal infant immunization and in which escape mutants after childhood infections have been observed. We predict that a variant cannot become dominant for at least 20 years from the start of vaccination, even when using a vaccine which affords no cross protection. The dominant factor responsible for this long time scale is the low rate of infectious contacts between infected and susceptible individuals (we estimate the basic reproduction number of hepatitis B in The Gambia to be 1·7). A variant strain that achieves high prevalence will also take many years to control, and it is questionable whether emergence will be identifiable by sero-surveillance until of high prevalence. The sensitivity of the model predictions to epidemiological and demographic factors is explored