57 research outputs found

    Rebalancing the US Economy in a Postcrisis World

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    The objective of this paper is to explore how the external balance of the United States (US) might evolve in future years as the economy emerges from the recession. We examine the issue from the domestic perspective of the saving and investment balance and from the external side in terms of the basic determinants of exports and imports and the role of the real exchange rate. Using these two respective perspectives, we highlight (1) causes and consequences of low private and public saving in the US, and (2) sensitivity of trade to variations in the real exchange rate. We highlight the need for sustained depreciation of the dollar to improve the competitiveness of US exports and argue that the current exchange rate is consistent with a significant reduction in the size of the trade deficit. However, the favorable external outlook is very inconsistent with a projected domestic situation of low rates of private saving and a very large public sector budget deficit matched by a cyclically depressed rate of investment. Changes in US corporate tax structure, reconsideration of capital controls, and perhaps some further decline in the level of real exchange rates could help soften the impact of a potentially very hard postrecession landing for the United States

    DIPLOMACIA E POLÍTICA DOMÉSTICA: A LÓGICA DOS JOGOS DE DOIS NÍVEIS

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    A polĂ­tica domĂ©stica e as relaçÔes internacionais com freqĂŒĂȘncia sĂŁo inextricavelmente vinculadas; todavia,as teorias existentes (particularmente as estatocĂȘntricas) nĂŁo levam adequadamente em consideraçÔestais vĂ­nculos. Quando os lĂ­deres nacionais devem obter as ratificaçÔes (formais ou informais) dos membrosde seus parlamentos para um acordo internacional, seus comportamentos em negociaçÔes refletem os imperativossimultĂąneos tanto de um jogo de polĂ­tica domĂ©stica quanto de um jogo de polĂ­tica internacional.Usando exemplos de cĂșpulas econĂŽmicas ocidentais, das negociaçÔes do Canal do PanamĂĄ e do Tratado deVersalhes, dos programas de estabilização do Fundo MonetĂĄrio Internacional, da Comunidade EuropĂ©ia ede muitos outros contextos diplomĂĄticos, o artigo oferece uma teoria da ratificação. Ele enfatiza o papel daspreferĂȘncias, coalizĂ”es, instituiçÔes e prĂĄticas domĂ©sticas, das estratĂ©gias e tĂĄticas dos negociadores, daincerteza, das reverberaçÔes domĂ©sticas das pressĂ”es externas e o papel dos interesses do negociador-chefe.Essa teoria de “jogos de dois nĂ­veis” tambĂ©m pode ser aplicĂĄvel a muitos outros fenĂŽmenos polĂ­ticos, taiscomo a dependĂȘncia, os comitĂȘs legislativos e as coalizĂ”es multipartidĂĄrias

    How Stable are Monetary Models of the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate? A Time-Varying Coefficient Approach

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    This paper examines the significance of different fundamental regimes by applying various monetary models of the exchange rate to one of the politically most important exchange rates, the exchange rate of the US dollar vis-Ă -vis the euro (the DM). We use monthly data from 1975:01 to 2007:12. Applying a novel time-varying coefficient estimation approach, we come up with interesting properties of our empirical models. First, there is no stable long-run equilibrium relationship among fundamentals and exchange rates since the breakdown of BrettonWoods. Second, there are no recurring regimes, i.e. across different regimes either the coefficient values for the same fundamentals differ or the significance differs. Third, there is no regime in which no fundamentals enter. Fourth, the deviations resulting from the stepwise cointegrating relationship act as a significant error-correction mechanism. In other words, we are able to show that fundamentals play an important role in determining the exchange rate although their impact differs significantly across different subperiods

    What is performance measurement for? Multiple uses of performance information within organizations

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    Recent research in performance measurement has focused on the tension between two uses of performance information: ‘passive’, to ensure compliance, and ‘purposeful’, to improve services. This article presents an in-depth study of two public sector organizations in England and shows that the main tension may actually lie between a combined purposeful and passive use, and an exclusively passive one. This tension was most pronounced between organizational levels, where a combined use was dominant among senior managers, and an exclusively passive one was prevalent among middle managers and frontline staff. This split was not intentional – instead, it reflected how people interpreted the role of performance measurement, suggesting that simply promoting greater use of information may not be sufficient for linking measurement with service improvement. This study extends the theoretical understanding of the dynamics of performance information use in organizations and generates implications for using performance measurement to improve service deliver
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