Modeling the long term dynamics of pre-vaccination pertussis

The dynamics of strongly immunizing childhood infections is still not well understood. Although reports of successful modeling of several incidence data records can be found in the literature, the key determinants of the observed temporal patterns have not been clearly identified. In particular, different models of immunity waning and degree of protection applied to disease and vaccine induced immunity have been debated in the literature on pertussis. Here we study the effect of disease acquired immunity on the long term patterns of pertussis prevalence. We compare five minimal models, all of which are stochastic, seasonally forced, well-mixed models of infection based on susceptible-infective-recovered dynamics in a closed population. These models reflect different assumptions about the immune response of naive hosts, namely total permanent immunity, immunity waning, immunity waning together with immunity boosting, reinfection of recovered, and repeat infection after partial immunity waning. The power spectra of the output prevalence time series characterize the long term dynamics of the models. For epidemiological parameters consistent with published data for pertussis, the power spectra show quantitative and even qualitative differences that can be used to test their assumptions by comparison with ensembles of several decades long pre-vaccination data records. We illustrate this strategy on two publicly available historical data sets.Comment: paper (31 pages, 11 figures, 1 table) and supplementary material (19 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables

Acute Hemorrhagic Conjunctivitis and Coxsackievirus A24v, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2004

An outbreak of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) occurred in Rio de Janeiro in 2004. Coxsackievirus A24v (CA24v) was identified as the etiologic agent, and partial sequences from the VP1 gene show that the isolates are closely related to CA24v viruses that previously caused AHC epidemics in South Korea and French Guiana

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in Community-acquired Skin Infections

Community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is the most common pathogen among patients with skin and soft tissue infections seeking treatment at a Los Angeles (USA) area emergency department. The proportion caused by MRSA increased from 29% in 2001 to 2002 to 64% in 2003 to 2004. No clinical or historical features reliably predict MRSA etiology

Influenza surveillance among children with pneumonia admitted to a district hospital in coastal Kenya, 2007-2010

Background: Influenza data gaps in sub-Saharan Africa include incidence, case fatality, seasonal patterns, and associations with prevalent disorders. Methods: Nasopharyngeal samples from children aged <12 years who were admitted to Kilifi District Hospital during 2007–2010 with severe or very severe pneumonia and resided in the local demographic surveillance system were screened for influenza A, B, and C viruses by molecular methods. Outpatient children provided comparative data. Results: Of 2002 admissions, influenza A virus infection was diagnosed in 3.5% (71), influenza B virus infection, in 0.9% (19); and influenza C virus infection, in 0.8% (11 of 1404 tested). Four patients with influenza died. Among outpatients, 13 of 331 (3.9%) with acute respiratory infection and 1 of 196 without acute respiratory infection were influenza positive. The annual incidence of severe or very severe pneumonia, of influenza (any type), and of influenza A, was 1321, 60, and 43 cases per 100 000 <5 years of age, respectively. Peak occurrence was in quarters 3–4 each year, and approximately 50% of cases involved infants: temporal association with bacteremia was absent. Hypoxia was more frequent among pneumonia cases involving influenza (odds ratio, 1.78; 95% confidence interval, 1.04–1.96). Influenza A virus subtypes were seasonal H3N2 (57%), seasonal H1N1 (12%), and 2009 pandemic H1N1 (7%). Conclusions: The burden of influenza was small during 2007–2010 in this pediatric hospital in Kenya. Influenza A virus subtype H3N2 predominated, and 2009 pandemic influenza A virus subtype H1N1 had little impact

Implications for registry-based vaccine effectiveness studies from an evaluation of an immunization registry: A cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Population-based electronic immunization registries create the possibility of using registry data to conduct vaccine effectiveness studies which could have methodological advantages over traditional observational studies. For study validity, the base population would have to be clearly defined and the immunization status of members of the population accurately recorded in the registry. We evaluated a city-wide immunization registry, focusing on its potential as a tool to study pertussis vaccine effectiveness, especially in adolescents.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted two evaluations – one in sites that were active registry participants and one in sites that had implemented an electronic medical record with plans for future direct data transfer to the registry – of the ability to match patients' medical records to registry records and the accuracy of immunization records in the registry. For each site, records from current pediatric patients were chosen randomly. Data regarding pertussis-related immunizations, clinic usage, and demographic and identifying information were recorded; for 11–17-year-old subjects, information on MMR, hepatitis B, and varicella immunizations was also collected. Records were then matched, when possible, to registry records. For records with a registry match, immunization data were compared.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among 350 subjects from sites that were current registry users, 307 (87.7%) matched a registry record. Discrepancies in pertussis-related data were common for up-to-date status (22.6%), number of immunizations (34.7%), dates (10.2%), and formulation (34.4%). Among 442 subjects from sites that planned direct electronic transfer of immunization data to the registry, 393 (88.9%) would have matched a registry record; discrepancies occurred frequently in number of immunizations (11.9%), formulation (29.1%), manufacturer (94.4%), and lot number (95.1%.) Inability to match and immunization discrepancies were both more common in subjects who were older at their first visit to the provider site. For 11–17-year-old subjects, discrepancies were also common for MMR, hepatitis B, and varicella vaccination data.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Provider records frequently could not be matched to registry records or had discrepancies in key immunization data. These issues were more common for older children and were present even with electronic data transfer. These results highlight general challenges that may face investigators wishing to use registry-based immunization data for vaccine effectiveness studies, especially in adolescents.</p

A Quantitative Look at Fluorosis, Fluoride Exposure, and Intake in Children Using a Health Risk Assessment Approach

The prevalence of dental fluorosis in the United States has increased during the last 30 years. In this study, we used a mathematical model commonly employed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to estimate average daily intake of fluoride via all applicable exposure pathways contributing to fluorosis risk for infants and children living in hypothetical fluoridated and non-fluoridated communities. We also estimated hazard quotients for each exposure pathway and hazard indices for exposure conditions representative of central tendency exposure (CTE) and reasonable maximum exposure (RME) conditions. The exposure pathways considered were uptake of fluoride via fluoridated drinking water, beverages, cow’s milk, foods, and fluoride supplements for both age groups. Additionally, consumption of infant formula for infants and inadvertent swallowing of toothpaste while brushing and incidental ingestion of soil for children were also considered. The cumulative daily fluoride intake in fluoridated areas was estimated as 0.20 and 0.11 mg/kg-day for RME and CTE scenarios, respectively, for infants. On the other hand, the RME and CTE estimates for children were 0.23 and 0.06 mg/kg-day, respectively. In areas where municipal water is not fluoridated, our RME and CTE estimates for cumulative daily average intake were, respectively, 0.11 and 0.08 mg/kg-day for infants and 0.21 and 0.06 mg/kg-day for children. Our theoretical estimates are in good agreement with measurement-based estimates reported in the literature. Although CTE estimates were within the optimum range for dental caries prevention, the RME estimates were above the upper tolerable intake limit. This suggests that some children may be at risk for fluorosis

A theory-based approach to understanding condom errors and problems reported by men attending an STI clinic

The official published version can be accessed from the link below - Copyright @ 2008 Springer VerlagWe employed the information–motivation–behavioral skills (IMB) model to guide an investigation of correlates for correct condom use among 278 adult (18–35 years old) male clients attending a sexually transmitted infection (STI) clinic. An anonymous questionnaire aided by a CD-recording of the questions was administered. Linear Structural Relations Program was used to conduct path analyses of the hypothesized IMB model. Parameter estimates showed that while information did not directly affect behavioral skills, it did have a direct (negative) effect on condom use errors. Motivation had a significant direct (positive) effect on behavioral skills and a significant indirect (positive) effect on condom use errors through behavioral skills. Behavioral skills had a direct (negative) effect on condom use errors. Among men attending a public STI clinic, these findings suggest brief, clinic-based, safer sex programs for men who have sex with women should incorporate activities to convey correct condom use information, instill motivation to use condoms correctly, and directly enhance men’s behavioral skills for correct use of condoms

Responsibility for HIV Prevention: Patterns of Attribution Among HIV-seropositive Gay and Bisexual Men

The article presents research based on narratives by gay and bisexual men recently infected with HIV. Researchers looked at the men\u27s attributions of responsibility for infection, comparing recollections of feelings before becoming infected with views expressed after seroconversion. The research responds to a call to better understand risk behavior among HIV-positive persons, in an effort to craft effective prevention interventions. In both before-and after-HIV infection views, survey participants expressed a sense of personal responsibility. Researchers report also nuances of views about shared responsibility