Fiscal developments and financial stress : a threshold VAR analysis

We use a threshold VAR analysis to study the linkages between changes in the debt ratio, economic activity and financial stress within different financial regimes. We use quarterly data for the US, the UK, Germany and Italy, for the period 1980:4– 2014:1, encompassing macro, fiscal and financial variables, and use nonlinear impulse responses allowing for endogenous regime-switches in response to structural shocks. The results show that output reacts mostly positively to an increase in the debt ratio in both financial stress regimes; however, the differences in estimated multipliers across regimes are relatively small. Furthermore, a financial stress shock has a negative effect on output and worsens the fiscal situation. The large time-variation and the estimated nonlinear impulse responses suggest that the size of the fiscal multipliers was higher than average in the 2008–2009 crisis.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

SuperCAT: a supertree database for combined and integrative multilocus sequence typing analysis of the Bacillus cereus group of bacteria (including B. cereus, B. anthracis and B. thuringiensis)

The Bacillus cereus group of bacteria is an important group including mammalian and insect pathogens, such as B. anthracis, the anthrax bacterium, B. thuringiensis, used as a biological pesticide and B. cereus, often involved in food poisoning incidents. To characterize the population structure and epidemiology of these bacteria, five separate multilocus sequence typing (MLST) schemes have been developed, which makes results difficult to compare. Therefore, we have developed a database that compiles and integrates MLST data from all five schemes for the B. cereus group, accessible at http://mlstoslo.uio.no/. Supertree techniques were used to combine the phylogenetic information from analysis of all schemes and datasets, in order to produce an integrated view of the B. cereus group population. The database currently contains strain information and sequence data for 1029 isolates and 26 housekeeping gene fragments, which can be searched by keywords, MLST scheme, or sequence similarity. Supertrees can be browsed according to various criteria such as species, isolate source, or genetic distance, and subtrees containing strains of interest can be extracted. Besides analysis of the available data, the user has the possibility to enter her/his own sequences and compare them to the database and/or include them into the supertree reconstructions

Genotyping of Bacillus cereus Strains by Microarray-Based Resequencing

The ability to distinguish microbial pathogens from closely related but nonpathogenic strains is key to understanding the population biology of these organisms. In this regard, Bacillus anthracis, the bacterium that causes inhalational anthrax, is of interest because it is closely related and often difficult to distinguish from other members of the B. cereus group that can cause diverse diseases. We employed custom-designed resequencing arrays (RAs) based on the genome sequence of Bacillus anthracis to generate 422 kb of genomic sequence from a panel of 41 Bacillus cereus sensu lato strains. Here we show that RAs represent a “one reaction” genotyping technology with the ability to discriminate between highly similar B. anthracis isolates and more divergent strains of the B. cereus s.l. Clade 1. Our data show that RAs can be an efficient genotyping technology for pre-screening the genetic diversity of large strain collections to selected the best candidates for whole genome sequencing

Sovereign Rating News and Financial Markets Spillovers

This paper examines the spillover effects of sovereign rating news on European financial markets during the period 2007-2010. Our main finding is that sovereign rating downgrades have statistically and economically significant spillover effects both across countries and financial markets. The sign and magnitude of the spillover effects depend both on the type of announcements, the source country experiencing the downgrade and the rating agency from which the announcements originates. However, we also find evidence that downgrades to near speculative grade ratings for relatively large economies such as Greece have a systematic spillover effects across Euro zone countries. Rating-based triggers used in banking regulation, CDS contracts, and investment mandates may help explain these results.Spillovers;Announcements;Bonds;Eastern Europe;Sovereign debt;stock market, credit rating, financial markets, credit rating agencies, bond, stock market indices, capital markets, financial instability, stock markets, sovereign bond, bond issuance, government bonds, financial market, bond spreads, stock index, capital adequacy, money markets, international financial markets, derivative, financial globalization, derivative product, bond markets, stock returns, stock prices, efficient capital markets, financial sector, financial stability, securitization, sovereign bonds, mature markets, financial economics

Are there Spillover Effects From Munis?

This paper studies the spillover effects both within the bond markets for individual U.S. states and between the latter and the market for U.S. Treasury securities. We perform the Forbes and Rigobon (2002) spillover test using daily bond yield data over the period 2005 to 2011. Results are twofold. First, we find that between most markets for individual U.S. state bonds there are negative spillovers. In other words, an increase in borrowing costs in one U.S. state results in better borrowing conditions for other states. Second, we find no substantial spillover effect between shocks originating from state securities and from federal markets, except for a few large issuers. Using causality tests in the frequency domain, we find that the Treasury bond market directly causes changes in the markets for municipal bonds in both the short and long run. There is also some evidence of causality from the municipal to the Treasury bond market, but only of a long-run nature. Our results shed some light on the policy debate on the nature of spillover effects within fiscal unions.Bonds;Fiscal analysis;Risk management;Spillovers;bond, bond yields, municipal bond yields, bond market, municipal bond, municipal bonds, treasury bond, bond markets, treasury securities, state bond, state bonds, treasury bond yields, bond funds, municipal bond market, financial markets, government securities, municipal bond markets, bond yield, capital inflows, private capital flows, bond issuers, national bond, credit rating, stock market, financial market, money market funds, bond issuer, national bond markets, capital flows, obligation bonds, debt securities, private capital, sub-national bond, financial contagion, markets for bonds, bond securities, yields on bonds, national bond market, stock markets, money market, bond investors, sub-national bond markets, general obligation bonds