Bayesian evidence synthesis for a transmission dynamic model for HIV among men who have sex with men

Understanding infectious disease dynamics and the effect on prevalence and incidence is crucial for public health policies. Disease incidence and prevalence are typically not observed directly and increasingly are estimated through the synthesis of indirect information from multiple data sources. We demonstrate how an evidence synthesis approach to the estimation of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence in England and Wales can be extended to infer the underlying HIV incidence. Diverse time series of data can be used to obtain yearly “snapshots” (with associated uncertainty) of the proportion of the population in 4 compartments: not at risk, susceptible, HIV positive but undiagnosed, and diagnosed HIV positive. A multistate model for the infection and diagnosis processes is then formulated by expressing the changes in these proportions by a system of differential equations. By parameterizing incidence in terms of prevalence and contact rates, HIV transmission is further modeled. Use of additional data or prior information on demographics, risk behavior change and contact parameters allows simultaneous estimation of the transition rates, compartment prevalences, contact rates, and transmission probabilities

Seroprevalence of transfusion-transmissible infections and evaluation of the pre-donation screening performance at the Provincial Hospital of Tete, Mozambique

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The World Health Organization recommends universal and quality-controlled screening of blood donations for the major transfusion-transmissible infections (TTIs): human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV) and syphilis. The study objectives were to determine the seroprevalence of these TTIs among blood donors at the Provincial Hospital of Tete, Mozambique, and to assess the local pre-donation screening performance.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>All consenting voluntary and replacement candidate blood donors were consecutively included from February to May 2009. Sera of all candidates, independent of deferral by questionnaire, were submitted to screening with quality-assured rapid or simple assays for HIV, HBV surface antigen (HBsAg), HCV and syphilis. Assays locally used by the blood bank for HBV and syphilis screening were run in parallel to quality-assured external assays supplied during the study, and all discordant samples were submitted to confirmation testing in reference laboratories in Mozambique and Belgium.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 750 consenting candidates (50.5% of voluntary donors), 71 (9.5%) were deferred by the questionnaire, including 38 specifically because of risk behavior for TTI. Of the 679 non-deferred candidates, 127 (18.7%) had serological confirmation of at least one TTI, with a lower prevalence in voluntary than in replacement donors (15.2% versus 22.4%, p = 0.016). Seroprevalence of HIV, HBsAg and syphilis infections was 8.5%, 10.6 % and 1.2%. No confirmed HCV infection was found. Seroprevalence of TTIs was similar in the 38 candidates deferred for TTI risk as in the non-deferred group, except for HBsAg (26.3 % versus 10.6 %; p = 0.005). The local assays used for HBV and syphilis had sensitivities of 98.4% and 100% and specificities of 80.4% and 98.8% respectively. This resulted in the rejection of 110 of the 679 blood donations (16.2%) because of false positive results.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The seroprevalence of TTIs after questionnaire screening is high in Tete, Mozambique, but HCV infection does not appear as a major issue. The questionnaire did not exclude effectively HIV-infected donor candidates, while the locally used assays led to unnecessary rejection of many safe donations. A contextualized questionnaire and consistent use of quality-assured assays would considerably improve the current screening procedure for blood donation.</p

Genetic Determination and Linkage Mapping of Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Related Traits in Senegal

Plasmodium falciparum malaria episodes may vary considerably in their severity and clinical manifestations. There is good evidence that host genetic factors contribute to this variability. To date, most genetic studies aiming at the identification of these genes have used a case/control study design for severe malaria, exploring specific candidate genes. Here, we performed a family-based genetic study of falciparum malaria related phenotypes in two independent longitudinal survey cohorts, as a first step towards the identification of genes and mechanisms involved in the outcome of infection. We studied two Senegalese villages, Dielmo and Ndiop that differ in ethnicity, malaria transmission and endemicity. We performed genome-scan linkage analysis of several malaria-related phenotypes both during clinical attacks and asymptomatic infection. We show evidence for a strong genetic contribution to both the number of clinical falciparum malaria attacks and the asymptomatic parasite density. The asymptomatic parasite density showed linkage to chromosome 5q31 (LOD = 2.26, empirical p = 0.0014, Dielmo), confirming previous findings in other studies. Suggestive linkage values were also obtained at three additional chromosome regions: the number of clinical malaria attacks on chromosome 5p15 (LOD = 2.57, empirical p = 0.001, Dielmo) and 13q13 (LOD = 2.37, empirical p = 0.0014 Dielmo), and the maximum parasite density during asymptomatic infection on chromosome 12q21 (LOD = 3.1, empirical p<10−4, Ndiop). While regions of linkage show little overlap with genes known to be involved in severe malaria, the four regions appear to overlap with regions linked to asthma or atopy related traits, suggesting that common immune related pathways may be involved