Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in England, 2009 to 2011: a greater burden of severe illness in the year after the pandemic than in the pandemic year.

Influenza pandemics are often perceived as single-year events, but the burden of previous influenza pandemics has in reality been spread over a number of years. The aim of this paper is to compare the burden of influenza in the pandemic year 2009/10 with that in the year immediately after (2010/11) in England. We compared four measures of disease. There was a greater burden of severe illness in 2010/11 compared with 2009/10: more deaths (474 vs 361), more critical care admissions (2,200 vs 1,700), and more hospital admissions (8,797 vs 7,879). In contrast, there were fewer general practice consultations in 2010/11 compared with 2009/10 (370,000 vs 580,000). There was also much less public interest in influenza, as assessed by number of Google searches. This is a worrying finding, as by the time of the second influenza season, much had been learnt about the potential impact of the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus and an effective vaccine developed. We suggest that a widespread assumption of 'mildness' led to insufficient ongoing action to prevent influenza and hence to avoidable influenza-related deaths. This offers a lesson to all countries, both for future influenza seasons and for pandemic preparedness planning

Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in England, 2009 to 2011: a greater burden of severe illness in the year after the pandemic than in the pandemic year.

Influenza pandemics are often perceived as single-year events, but the burden of previous influenza pandemics has in reality been spread over a number of years. The aim of this paper is to compare the burden of influenza in the pandemic year 2009/10 with that in the year immediately after (2010/11) in England. We compared four measures of disease. There was a greater burden of severe illness in 2010/11 compared with 2009/10: more deaths (474 vs 361), more critical care admissions (2,200 vs 1,700), and more hospital admissions (8,797 vs 7,879). In contrast, there were fewer general practice consultations in 2010/11 compared with 2009/10 (370,000 vs 580,000). There was also much less public interest in influenza, as assessed by number of Google searches. This is a worrying finding, as by the time of the second influenza season, much had been learnt about the potential impact of the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus and an effective vaccine developed. We suggest that a widespread assumption of 'mildness' led to insufficient ongoing action to prevent influenza and hence to avoidable influenza-related deaths. This offers a lesson to all countries, both for future influenza seasons and for pandemic preparedness planning

A health impact assessment of the UK soft drinks industry levy: a comparative risk assessment modelling study

Background In March, 2016, the UK government proposed a tiered levy on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs; high, moderate, and no tax for drinks with >8g, 5g to 8g, and <5g sugar per 100ml). We estimate the effect of possible industry responses to the levy on obesity, diabetes, and dental caries. Methods We modelled three possible industry responses: (1) reformulation to reduce sugar concentration, (2) increasing product price, and (3) changing the market share of high-, mid-, and low-sugar drinks. For each response, we defined a better and worse case health scenario. We developed a comparative risk assessment model to estimate the UK health impact of each scenario. Findings The best modelled scenario for health is SSB reformulation, resulting in 144,000 (95% uncertainty interval: 5,100 to 306,700) fewer adults and children with obesity in the UK, 19,000 (6,900 to 32,700) fewer incident cases of diabetes per year, and 269,000 (82,200 to 470,900) fewer decayed, missing, or filled teeth annually. Increasing the price of SSBs and changes to market share to increase the proportion of low-sugar drinks sold would also result in population health benefits, but to a lesser extent. The greatest benefit for obesity and oral health would be among individuals under 18 years, with people over 65 years experiencing the largest absolute decreases in diabetes incidence. Interpretation The health impact of the soft drink levy is dependent on its implementation by industry. There is uncertainty as to how industry will react and in the estimation of health outcomes. Health gains could be maximised by significant product reformulation with additional benefits possible if the levy is passed onto purchasers through raising the price of high- and mid-sugar drinks, and through activities to increase the market share of low-sugar products.RT and AK have previously done work on sugar-sweetened beverage taxes funded by the Union of European Soft Drinks Associations. MR is chair of Sustain and the Children's Food Campaign, which have campaigned for sugar drink taxes in the UK. MR is funded by the British Heart Foundation, grant number 006/PSS/CORE/2016/OXFORD. ADMB and OTM are members of the Faculty of Public Health, which has a position statement supporting sugary drink taxes. ADMB is funded by the Wellcome Trust, grant number 102730/Z/13/Z. OTM is a member of the UK Health Forum, which has also supported a UK sugar drinks tax. OTM is supported by a Wellcome Trust Clinical Doctoral Fellowship. SAJ was the independent Chair of the Department of Health Public Health Responsibility Deal Food Network from 2010 to 2015. SAJ is funded by the National Institute for Health Research Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care Oxford. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Health Service, National Institute for Health Research, or the Department of Health. PS is funded by the British Heart Foundation, grant number FS/15/34/31656. TB is funded the Health Research Council of New Zealand (16/443). AE declares no competing interests

The modelled impact of increases in physical activity: the effect of both increased survival and reduced incidence of disease

Physical activity can affect ‘need’ for healthcare both by reducing the incidence rate of some diseases and by increasing longevity (increasing the time lived at older ages when disease incidence is higher). However, it is common to consider only the first effect, which may overestimate any reduction in need for healthcare. We developed a hybrid micro-simulation lifetable model, which made allowance for both changes in longevity and risk of disease incidence, to estimate the effects of increases in physical activity (all adults meeting guidelines) on measures of healthcare need for diseases for which physical activity is protective. These were compared with estimates made using comparative risk assessment (CRA) methods, which assumed that longevity was fixed. Using the lifetable model, life expectancy increased by 95 days (95% uncertainty intervals: 68–126 days). Estimates of the healthcare need tended to decrease, but the magnitude of the decreases were noticeably smaller than those estimated using CRA methods (e.g. dementia: change in person- years, -0.6%, 95% uncertainty interval -3.7% to +1.6%; change in incident cases, -0.4%, -3.6% to +1.9%; change in person-years (CRA methods), -4.0%, -7.4% to -1.6%). The pattern of results persisted under different scenarios and sensitivity analyses. For most diseases for which physical activity is protective, increases in physical activity are associated with decreases in indices of healthcare need. However, disease onset may be delayed or time lived with disease may increase, such that the decreases in need may be relatively small and less than is sometimes expected.Oliver Mytton is supported by a Welcome Trust clinical doctoral fellowship (RG73907). Marko Tainio is funded by the Centre for Diet and Activity Research (CEDAR), which receives funding from UK Clinical Research Collaboration. David Ogilvie and Jenna Panter are supported by the Medical Research Council [Unit Programme number MC_UU_12015/6]. Jenna Panter was supported by an NIHR post-doctoral fellowship [PDF-2012-05-157]. Linda Cobiac is supported by an NHMRC Sidney Sax Early Career Research Fellowship (Grant ID: 1036771). James Woodcock is funded by an MRC Population Health Scientist Fellowship

The potential health impact of restricting less-healthy food and beverage advertising on UK television between 05.30 and 21.00 hours: A modelling study

BACKGROUND: Restrictions on the advertising of less-healthy foods and beverages is seen as one measure to tackle childhood obesity and is under active consideration by the UK government. Whilst evidence increasingly links this advertising to excess calorie intake, understanding of the potential impact of advertising restrictions on population health is limited. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a proportional multi-state life table model to estimate the health impact of prohibiting the advertising of food and beverages high in fat, sugar, and salt (HFSS) from 05.30 hours to 21.00 hours (5:30 AM to 9:00 PM) on television in the UK. We used the following data to parameterise the model: children's exposure to HFSS advertising from AC Nielsen and Broadcasters' Audience Research Board (2015); effect of less-healthy food advertising on acute caloric intake in children from a published meta-analysis; population numbers and all-cause mortality rates from the Human Mortality Database for the UK (2015); body mass index distribution from the Health Survey for England (2016); disability weights for estimating disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from the Global Burden of Disease Study; and healthcare costs from NHS England programme budgeting data. The main outcome measures were change in the percentage of the children (aged 5-17 years) with obesity defined using the International Obesity Task Force cut-points, and change in health status (DALYs). Monte Carlo analyses was used to estimate 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We estimate that if all HFSS advertising between 05.30 hours and 21.00 hours was withdrawn, UK children (n = 13,729,000), would see on average 1.5 fewer HFSS adverts per day and decrease caloric intake by 9.1 kcal (95% UI 0.5-17.7 kcal), which would reduce the number of children (aged 5-17 years) with obesity by 4.6% (95% UI 1.4%-9.5%) and with overweight (including obesity) by 3.6% (95% UI 1.1%-7.4%) This is equivalent to 40,000 (95% UI 12,000-81,000) fewer UK children with obesity, and 120,000 (95% UI 34,000-240,000) fewer with overweight. For children alive in 2015 (n = 13,729,000), this would avert 240,000 (95% UI 65,000-530,000) DALYs across their lifetime (i.e., followed from 2015 through to death), and result in a health-related net monetary benefit of £7.4 billion (95% UI £2.0 billion-£16 billion) to society. Under a scenario where all HFSS advertising is displaced to after 21.00 hours, rather than withdrawn, we estimate that the benefits would be reduced by around two-thirds. This is a modelling study and subject to uncertainty; we cannot fully and accurately account for all of the factors that would affect the impact of this policy if implemented. Whilst randomised trials show that children exposed to less-healthy food advertising consume more calories, there is uncertainty about the nature of the dose-response relationship between HFSS advertising and calorie intake. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that HFSS television advertising restrictions between 05.30 hours and 21.00 hours in the UK could make a meaningful contribution to reducing childhood obesity. We estimate that the impact on childhood obesity of this policy may be reduced by around two-thirds if adverts are displaced to after 21.00 hours rather than being withdrawn

Do school closures and school reopenings affect community transmission of COVID-19? A systematic review of observational studies

Objectives: To systematically reivew the observational evidence of the effect of school closures and school reopenings on SARS-CoV-2 community transmission. / Setting: Schools (including early years settings, primary schools and secondary schools). / Intervention: School closures and reopenings. / Outcome measure: Community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (including any measure of community infections rate, hospital admissions or mortality attributed to COVID-19). / Methods: On 7 January 2021, we searched PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, CINAHL, the WHO Global COVID-19 Research Database, ERIC, the British Education Index, the Australian Education Index and Google, searching title and abstracts for terms related to SARS-CoV-2 AND terms related to schools or non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). We used the Cochrane Risk of Bias In Non-randomised Studies of Interventions tool to evaluate bias. / Results: We identified 7474 articles, of which 40 were included, with data from 150 countries. Of these, 32 studies assessed school closures and 11 examined reopenings. There was substantial heterogeneity between school closure studies, with half of the studies at lower risk of bias reporting reduced community transmission by up to 60% and half reporting null findings. The majority (n=3 out of 4) of school reopening studies at lower risk of bias reported no associated increases in transmission. / Conclusions: School closure studies were at risk of confounding and collinearity from other non-pharmacological interventions implemented around the same time as school closures, and the effectiveness of closures remains uncertain. School reopenings, in areas of low transmission and with appropriate mitigation measures, were generally not accompanied by increasing community transmission. With such varied evidence on effectiveness, and the harmful effects, policymakers should take a measured approach before implementing school closures; and should look to reopen schools in times of low transmission, with appropriate mitigation measures

Change in non-alcoholic beverage sales following a 10-pence levy on sugar-sweetened beverages within a national chain of restaurants in the UK: interrupted time series analysis of a natural experiment

This is the final published version. Available from BMJ Publishing Group via the DOI in this record.The dataset used within this study is commercially sensitive and is owned by a third-party. The data provider (Jamie’s Italian) will accept requests to access to sales data used in the analyses presented here. These requests should be made in writing to the Jamie Oliver Food Foundation (http://www. jamieoliverfoodfoundation.org.uk).Background This study evaluates changes in sales of non-alcoholic beverages in Jamie’s Italian, a national chain of commercial restaurants in the UK, following the introduction of a £0.10 per-beverage levy on sugarsweetened beverages (SSBs) and supporting activity including beverage menu redesign, new products and establishment of a children’s health fund from levy proceeds. Methods We used an interrupted time series design to quantify changes in sales of non-alcoholic beverages 12 weeks and 6 months after implementation of the levy, using itemised electronic point of sale data. Main outcomes were number of SSBs and other nonalcoholic beverages sold per customer. Linear regression and multilevel random effects models, adjusting for seasonality and clustering, were used to investigate changes in SSB sales across all restaurants (n=37) and by tertiles of baseline restaurant SSB sales per customer. Results Compared with the prelevy period, the number of SSBs sold per customer declined by 11.0% (−17.3% to −4.3%) at 12 weeks and 9.3% (−15.2% to −3.2%) at 6months. For non-levied beverages, sales per customer of children’s fruit juice declined by 34.7% (−55.3% to −4.3%) at 12 weeks and 9.9% (−16.8% to −2.4%) at 6months. At 6months, sales per customer of fruit juice increased by 21.8% (14.0% to 30.2%) but sales of diet cola (−7.3%; −11.7% to −2.8%) and bottled waters (−6.5%; −11.0% to −1.7%) declined. Changes in sales were only observed in restaurants in the medium and high tertiles of baseline SSB sales per customer. Conclusions Introduction of a £0.10 levy on SSBs alongside complementary activities is associated with declines in SSB sales per customer in the short and medium term, particularly in restaurants with higher baseline sales of SSBsNational Institute for Health Research (NIHR)Medical Research Council (MRC)Centre for Diet and Activity Research (CEDAR), a UKCRC Public Health Research Centre of ExcellenceUK Clinical Research CollaborationBritish Heart FoundationCancer Research UKEconomic and Social Research Council (ESRC)Wellcome Trus

Azithromycin plus chloroquine: combination therapy for protection against malaria and sexually transmitted infections in pregnancy

INTRODUCTION: The first-line therapy for the intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy (IPTp) is sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP). There is an urgent need to identify safe, well-tolerated and efficacious alternatives to SP due to widespread Plasmodium falciparum resistance. Combination therapy using azithromycin and chloroquine is one possibility that has demonstrated adequate parasitological response > 95% in clinical trials of non-pregnant adults in sub-Saharan Africa and where IPTp is a government policy in 33 countries. AREAS COVERED: Key safety, tolerability and efficacy data are presented for azithromycin and chloroquine, alone and/or in combination, when used to prevent and/or treat P. falciparum, P. vivax, and several curable sexually transmitted and reproductive tract infections (STI/RTI). Pharmacokinetic evidence from pregnant women is also summarized for both compounds. EXPERT OPINION: The azithromycin-chloroquine regimen that has demonstrated consistent efficacy in non-pregnant adults has been a 3-day course containing daily doses of 1 g of azithromycin and 600 mg base of chloroquine. The pharmacokinetic evidence of these compounds individually suggests that dose adjustments may not be necessary when used in combination for treatment efficacy against P. falciparum, P. vivax, as well as several curable STI/RTI among pregnant women, although clinical confirmation will be necessary. Mass trachoma-treatment campaigns have shown that azithromycin selects for macrolide resistance in the pneumococcus, which reverses following the completion of therapy. Most importantly, no evidence to date suggests that azithromycin induces pneumococcal resistance to penicillin

Nationwide Surveillance of Influenza during the Pandemic (2009–10) and Post-Pandemic (2010–11) Periods in Taiwan

INTRODUCTION: Although WHO declared the world moving into the post-pandemic period on August 10, 2010, influenza A(H1N1) 2009 virus continued to circulate globally. Its impact was expected to continue during the 2010-11 influenza season. This study describes the nationwide surveillance findings of the pandemic and post-pandemic influenza periods in Taiwan and assesses the impact of influenza A(H1N1) 2009 during the post-pandemic period. METHODS: The Influenza Laboratory Surveillance Network consisted of 12 contract laboratories for collecting and testing samples with acute respiratory tract infections. Surveillance of emergency room visits and outpatient department visits for influenza-like illness (ILI) were conducted using the Real-Time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance system and the National Health Insurance program data, respectively. Hospitalized cases with severe complications and deaths were reported to the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. RESULTS: During the 2009-10 influenza season, pandemic A(H1N1) 2009 was the predominant circulating strain and caused 44 deaths. However, the 2010-11 influenza season began with A(H3N2) being the predominant circulating strain, changing to A(H1N1) 2009 in December 2010. Emergency room and outpatient department ILI surveillance displayed similar trends. By March 31, 2011, there were 1,751 cases of influenza with severe complications; 50.1% reported underlying diseases. Of the reported cases, 128 deaths were associated with influenza. Among these, 93 (72.6%) were influenza A(H1N1) 2009 and 30 (23.4%) A(H3N2). Compared to the pandemic period, during the immediate post-pandemic period, increased number of hospitalizations and deaths were observed, and the patients were consistently older. CONCLUSIONS: Reemergence of influenza A(H1N1) 2009 during the 2010-11 influenza season had an intense activity with age distribution shift. To further mitigate the impact of future influenza epidemics, Taiwan must continue its multifaceted influenza surveillance systems, remain flexible with antiviral use policies, and revise the vaccine policies to include the population most at risk